# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

February 3 Market Summary: U.S. Stocks and Gold Rebound Together, Fed Still Mired in Independence Crisis

Market Summary, February 3: U.S. stocks and gold both rebounded, while the Federal Reserve faces an ongoing independence crisis. Spot gold surged 3.56% to close at $4,826/oz, marking a strong recovery after its sharpest single-day drop since 1980 the previous Friday. The sell-off was triggered by Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh—a known hawk—as the next Fed Chair, raising fears of prolonged high interest rates. However, markets are reassessing: Warsh’s potential appointment is not immediate, and the long-term "de-dollarization" narrative for gold remains intact. Technical factors, including margin hikes and stop-loss triggers, exacerbated the initial drop but also cleared excess leverage. Major banks like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank maintain bullish long-term targets. Bitcoin struggled around $78,700, up 2% on the day but down over 10% for the week. It faced pressure from broader risk-off sentiment, liquidations of long positions exceeding $500 million, and a lack of new catalysts. Ethereum fell even more sharply, down 19% weekly. Altcoins broadly declined as capital concentrated in Bitcoin and a few high-quality assets. U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56%. The rebound was driven by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI data, gains in AI-related and transportation stocks, and a general recovery from Friday’s panic. However, underlying weaknesses persisted, as seen in Disney’s 7% drop on poor earnings. The core market tension remains the Fed’s credibility crisis. Trump’s nomination of Warsh has intensified concerns over the central bank’s independence. Markets are weighing two scenarios: continued hawkish policy hurting all assets, or political pressure leading to premature rate cuts, risking inflation and dollar devaluation. Upcoming data—including ADP employment, ISM services PMI, jobless claims, and especially the nonfarm payrolls report—will be critical for near-term direction. Strong data could reinforce expectations of delayed rate cuts, while weak figures may increase bets on earlier easing. Current market pricing suggests a 40% chance of a March rate cut.

marsbit02/03 01:40

February 3 Market Summary: U.S. Stocks and Gold Rebound Together, Fed Still Mired in Independence Crisis

marsbit02/03 01:40

Crypto’s Slide May Not Be Fear — It’s A US Liquidity Crunch, CEO Says

A sharp sell-off in crypto markets wiped out approximately $250 billion in value over the weekend, with Bitcoin falling below $80,000—down 40% from its 2025 high. Analysts note weakening retail interest, large ETF outflows, and a loss of momentum. Support around $73,000–$75,000 is now critical. According to Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor, the decline is not crypto-specific but stems from a broader U.S. dollar liquidity crunch. Factors include Treasury General Account rebuilds, higher funding costs, and a reduced Reverse Repo Facility buffer. Pal stated that gold’s rally absorbed marginal liquidity that might have flowed into risk assets like Bitcoin and SaaS stocks, leaving the most exposed positions vulnerable. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair added uncertainty, with some fearing slower rate cuts. While markets remain fragile, some expect liquidity conditions to improve, potentially allowing a recovery if dollar flow normalizes.

bitcoinist02/02 15:51

Crypto’s Slide May Not Be Fear — It’s A US Liquidity Crunch, CEO Says

bitcoinist02/02 15:51

The Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years of a New Era

The article "An Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years" analyzes the potential implications of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair under a Trump administration. It argues that Warsh represents not just a shift from dovish to hawkish policy, but a fundamental redefinition of the Fed's role. His appointment signals a move away from the Fed acting as a perpetual backstop for markets and government debt—a role perfected by Chair Powell during crises like the pandemic. Instead, Warsh advocates for monetary and fiscal discipline, opposing unconditional quantitative easing and emphasizing market rules over intervention. However, the US economy's reality—characterized by massive debt, deficit spending, and market dependence on low rates—severely limits any radical change. Warsh's proposed policies of raising rates and reducing the Fed's balance sheet risk triggering market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and political backlash, likely forcing a retreat to familiar stimulus measures. From Trump’s perspective, Warsh is a "controllable reformer" who can publicly push for fiscal restraint, forcing Congress to address unsustainable spending—while also serving as a convenient scapegoat if reforms fail. Ultimately, the core constraint remains America’s debt-dominated economy, which eliminates any possibility of a definitive solution. The coming years will involve managing, not solving, these problems through a painful and iterative process of half-measures and trade-offs—a era defined not by prosperity, but by the explicit return of economic constraints.

marsbit02/02 10:05

The Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years of a New Era

marsbit02/02 10:05

Delphi Digital Co-founder: Why Am I Bullish on the Cryptocurrency Market Outlook?

Delphi Digital co-founder Tommy outlines five key reasons for his bullish outlook on cryptocurrencies. He argues that if Trump influences the Fed to lower interest rates (especially with Truflation showing 1.2% inflation could accelerate capital rotation from low-risk assets like T-bills into crypto. The surge in gold and silver reflects deeper concerns about dollar debasement and fiscal health, which ultimately benefits crypto as a hedge. He also being optimistic about AI, believes much of the positive news is already priced in, and a shift in focus toward workflows and cost-effective local AI models may reduce hype for centralized AI stocks, freeing up liquidity for crypto. Additionally, he notes declining investor interest in quantum computing stocks, reducing a perceived threat to crypto. Finally, potential U.S. regulatory clarity, including the Clarity Act and supportive moves from the SEC and CFTC under a potential Trump administration, could provide significant tailwinds.

marsbit02/02 06:24

Delphi Digital Co-founder: Why Am I Bullish on the Cryptocurrency Market Outlook?

marsbit02/02 06:24

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity is Coming" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing it is not a sign of the industry's demise but a temporary liquidity crisis. Pal refutes the narrative that crypto has permanently decoupled from other assets by showing that Bitcoin's price chart is nearly identical to that of the SaaS index, indicating a shared, external factor: a shortage of U.S. dollar liquidity. He explains this was caused by a combination of events, including the draining of the Reverse Repo facility, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without monetary offset, and government shutdowns. This liquidity drain negatively impacted risk assets like crypto and tech stocks, while gold absorbed the marginal liquidity. The key takeaway is that this period of illiquidity is ending. The impending resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as the final obstacle. Once cleared, a significant injection of liquidity is expected from sources like the easing of the SLR rule, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. Pal, alongside analysis from Stanley Druckenmiller, suggests the new Fed leadership under a potential Warsh chairmanship would be focused on cutting rates to keep the economy hot, aligning with a pro-growth strategy from the administration. The author admits a mistake in not prioritizing U.S. liquidity as the dominant short-term driver over global liquidity but remains highly bullish on the long-term cycle into 2026. The core advice for investors is patience, emphasizing that in a full cycle, time is more important than price. The message is clear: the liquidity cavalry is on its way.

marsbit02/02 03:40

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "False Narratives....and Other Thoughts" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing against the mainstream narrative that the crypto cycle is over. Pal explains that the recent price decline in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not an isolated event but is correlated with a similar drop in SaaS stocks, as shown by comparative charts. He identifies the root cause as a temporary liquidity squeeze in the U.S. financial system, exacerbated by government shutdowns, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding without monetary offset, and gold absorbing marginal liquidity that would otherwise support risk assets like crypto. Pal emphasizes that this liquidity crunch is temporary. He anticipates a resolution to the government shutdown soon, which will remove the last major obstacle to liquidity recovery. Following this, he expects a return of liquidity through measures such as eSLR adjustments, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. He advises investors to be patient, stressing that in a full market cycle, time is more critical than price movements. The article also corrects a misperception about potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, arguing he is not a hawk and would likely support rate cuts aligned with strategies to boost economic growth. Despite current market conditions, Pal remains highly optimistic about the crypto market's prospects through 2026, driven by anticipated pro-growth policies.

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:31

2026 Macro Forecast: Liquidity, Expectations, and the New Order

Amidst a paradigm shift from globalization to regionalization, the 2026 market outlook highlights a critical deterioration in the quality of US dollar liquidity. Despite the Fed's defensive rate cuts in late 2025, liquidity remains tight due to massive margin debt, explosive growth in the repo market, and a structural reliance on short-term T-bill financing, which increases systemic fragility. This has led to higher long-term funding costs and a return to "strict diversification," with capital flowing into gold, non-USD assets, and supply-constrained resources rather than traditional dollar-denominated assets. Three core investment themes emerge: resources (commodities like gold and copper), AI infrastructure (semiconductors, energy, data centers), and defense/security, reflecting the new priority of "location over growth" in a fragmented world. Cryptocurrencies face a divergence: Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a "digital commodity" and hedge, while equity-like tokens must offer substantial risk premiums to compete with high risk-free rates. The key takeaway is that investors should prioritize hard assets with inelastic supply, embrace structural differentiation across asset classes, and manage portfolios around constraints rather than predictions, as the era of easy liquidity and centralized bank support has ended.

marsbit02/02 02:39

2026 Macro Forecast: Liquidity, Expectations, and the New Order

marsbit02/02 02:39

Crypto Morning Report: Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000, Tokens Like HYPE, BERA, XDC to See Large Unlocks This Week

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 amid a broader crypto market downturn. The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown, and Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh was linked to the Epstein scandal. Binance released a report attributing the October 11 flash crash to macro shocks and market-wide liquidations, denying platform-specific failures. However, OKX CEO Star blamed Binance’s USDe yield promotion for encouraging risky leverage. Wintermute and Dragonfly partners countered, citing multiple factors including Trump’s tariff threats and liquidity issues. Michael Saylor hinted at further Bitcoin acquisitions by MicroStrategy. Several tokens, including HYPE, BERA, and XDC, are set for major unlocks totaling over $300 million this week.

marsbit02/02 01:26

Crypto Morning Report: Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000, Tokens Like HYPE, BERA, XDC to See Large Unlocks This Week

marsbit02/02 01:26

Bitcoin drops to $78K – Decoding the $1.3B liquidation ‘freefall’

Bitcoin dropped to around $78,000 due to a significant market sell-off driven by heavy leverage and thin liquidity, resulting in approximately $1.3 billion in forced liquidations. The decline was not primarily caused by external factors like geopolitics but rather by a lack of market liquidity, which amplified the downturn. As leveraged positions were automatically closed, prices fell rapidly due to insufficient buyer support, and bearish sentiment further accelerated the sell-off. The crypto market decline coincided with a broader global sell-off, where over $12 trillion was wiped from markets within 48 hours. Precious metals like gold and silver saw sharp declines after rapid rallies, and equities also fell. Margin calls and increased exchange margin requirements exacerbated the selling pressure. Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin traded below its major moving averages for the first time since 2022, suggesting continued volatility. Experts recommend cautious capital management, such as dollar-cost averaging, rather than deploying all funds at once during such periods.

ambcrypto02/01 15:02