Predicting the Dormant Period of Market Heat, Polymarket Prepares a Killer Move to Catch Up with Kalshi
Following a period of lower trading activity after the World Cup and during a sports offseason, Polymarket is restructuring in preparation for upcoming major sports events and the US midterm elections in November.
Key personnel changes include the appointment of Travis VanderZanden, former Bird founder and Uber/Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer to oversee marketing. The company has also hired executives from Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI to strengthen compliance, risk management, and regulatory functions. This push supports Polymarket's renewed focus on the US market after its 2022 exit due to regulatory issues.
Its US re-entry accelerated with the 2025 acquisition of licensed exchange QCEX, rebranded as Polymarket US. After launching on iOS in May, a web version recently went live. Trading volume on Polymarket US has surged, growing from $1.77 billion in May to approximately $5 billion in July. This represents 62% of the international platform's volume, up from just 25% two months prior.
VanderZanden's immediate task involves addressing past marketing controversies, including CFTC investigations into promotional practices that used simulated trades. The company has since reformed its marketing rules and partner vetting.
Despite rapid growth, Polymarket US still trails the US prediction market leader, Kalshi, which saw about $37.7 billion in July volume compared to Polymarket's combined ~$13 billion. Kalshi's valuation also significantly outpaces Polymarket's.
The coming autumn, with its slate of sports and political events, presents a critical test for Polymarket's US expansion and its ability to close the gap with Kalshi.
marsbit08/12 02:49