Cardano rallies 13% ahead of van Rossem upgrade—but can the move last?
Cardano's ADA surged 13.22% with trading volume up nearly 60%, coinciding with the anticipated van Rossem hard fork—an intra-era upgrade focused on performance, governance, and new Plutus functions. This move was also supported by a broader market rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $62,000.
Despite the rally, ADA's overall price structure remains bearish. The price recently fell below the crucial $0.235 support, and the swing structure turned bearish after breaking the $0.32 level in January 2026. Although the price breached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1789, a daily close above $0.19 is needed to shift the structure to bullish. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the MFI indicates upward momentum, but the CMF remains weak, reflecting a lack of sustained buying pressure.
Analysts suggest the current bounce is overextended, with the MFI above 80. They identify a potential short opportunity for swing traders, with invalidation above $0.19 and downside targets near $0.138 and $0.126. In summary, while the upgrade provided a short-term catalyst, the underlying market structure suggests a rejection from the $0.178-$0.190 area is likely.
ambcrypto10h ago