Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | DingDang (@XiaMiPP)
Over the past two weeks, Strategy has once again significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings: adding over 10,000 BTC in a single week, valued at more than $900 million.
As a well-known long-term holder in the market, against the backdrop of Bitcoin's persistent price decline and its own mNAV falling below 1, Strategy did not sell as the market feared but instead provided a completely opposite answer—firmly buying. As of now, Strategy cumulatively holds approximately 671,000 BTC, with a total value exceeding $50 billion, continuously solidifying its position as one of the world's largest institutional Bitcoin holders.
This move has also sparked deeper market reflection: With such large-scale continuous buying, how much Bitcoin is truly available for trading on the market?
The theoretical maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, but the actual circulating supply is far less. Approximately 19.96 million BTC have been mined, accounting for 95% of the total, with only about 1.04 million yet to be produced. The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, with a daily addition of about 450 BTC, and it will halve again in 2028. At this pace, the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.
However, what truly determines market supply is not the unmined new coins but the liquid portion of the existing supply.
According to statistics, over 30% of Bitcoin has not moved for a long time and is considered "dormant holdings"; another approximately 20% is suspected to be permanently lost. Furthermore, institutional and public holdings, including listed companies, ETFs, and national funds, continue to rise, with most of this BTC exiting high-frequency circulation. Additionally, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows, meaning the "floating supply" available for immediate sale is rapidly shrinking. Against the backdrop of whales quietly buying and long-term holders holding tight, market liquidity is facing structural tightening.
Regarding the issue of Bitcoin's true circulating supply, crypto analyst Murphy conducted a systematic review. Odaily Planet Daily further integrated data and perspectives on this basis, attempting to present the full picture behind this scarcity narrative—as buying power persists and available supply shrinks, the market structure may be quietly shifting.
Long-Term Holders' "Institutionalized Hoarding" is Taking Over Circulating Supply
Long-term holders have now become the most important structural force in the Bitcoin market. According to Glassnode statistics, this group collectively holds approximately 14.35 million BTC, accounting for over 70% of the circulating supply.
A further breakdown: There are currently 153 enterprises holding BTC with "non-zero balances," the core of which are 29 listed companies, collectively holding 1.082 million BTC (including Other holding 54,331 BTC). Among these 29 listed companies, Strategy alone holds 671,000 BTC, accounting for a high 62%.
Combined with URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data, Strategy's intensive buying range coincides precisely with the most densely concentrated area in BTC's supply structure, roughly between $80,000 and $118,000. This means that Strategy indeed played a significant role in the high-volume trading within the high-price range. This is also why MSTR and ETFs are considered the driving force behind this bull cycle.
It is worth noting that on October 6, there were only 67 enterprises holding "BTC non-zero balances." However, as BTC experienced a deep correction, this number suddenly surged and now stands at 153. Does this mean that new corporate players are quietly entering the market during the price decline?
In addition to BTC reserves held by实体企业 (physical enterprises), spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold approximately 1.311 million BTC. The top three are: BlackRock with about 777,000, Fidelity with about 202,000, and Grayscale with about 167,000.
Furthermore, governments worldwide hold approximately 615,000 BTC. The U.S. government leads with 325,000 BTC; ranking second is the Chinese government, holding about 190,000 BTC. It should be noted that the Chinese government has never officially disclosed related holdings. This data primarily comes from Glassnode, and its statistical caliber still has uncertainties compared to the real situation.
Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 10 years is approximately 3.409 million BTC. These assets include cold wallets of early exchanges and truly "faith-based OGs"; but it cannot be ignored that a significant portion has likely exited the流通体系 (circulation system) due to reasons such as lost private keys or the holder's death. This includes the approximately 1 million BTC widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
How Much of the Mined BTC is Actually "Unbuyable"?
Murphy subsequently provided a more detailed梳理 (review) of this data. Unlike traditional bank accounts with "password recovery" functions, Bitcoin relies entirely on private keys to prove ownership. Once a private key is lost or becomes inaccessible, the corresponding Bitcoin can never be moved or spent. Although they are still recorded on the blockchain, in economic terms, they are essentially permanently destroyed.
If the circulating supply is细分 (broken down) by date range, where each range refers to the creation date of the UTXO, we can see that the cumulative peak for BTC "born" between 2010-2014 occurred in December 2014, after which it declined rapidly (as they were spent); it has shown almost no significant change since January 2019.
These ancient BTC that remain today, aside from those held by绝对信仰的持有者 (holders with absolute faith), are probably mostly lost. According to Murphy's estimate, this proportion is at least 50%, meaning at least 1.06 million BTC or more.
There is another set of "supreme王者 (supreme王者 - likely typo, meaning supreme/champion)" coins, with UTXO creation dates in 2009. They have hardly moved since December 2011, and this address set holds 1.08 million BTC today.
This means that at least approximately 2.14 million BTC may be permanently immovable in practice.
The Truly Liquid Supply
Looking at the most direct indicator—exchange balances—the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange wallets is currently about 2.49 million BTC, and this trend is continuously declining, hitting a new low since 2023.
In other words, while demand continues to become "institutionalized," supply is continuously contracting. The pool of Bitcoin available for trading is getting smaller and smaller.
