Stocks outpace Bitcoin, yet whales keep buying BTC – Why?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-24Last updated on 2025-12-24

Abstract

Bitcoin's price has underperformed compared to equities, but key on-chain trends suggest underlying strength. Exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating investors are moving BTC into long-term storage rather than selling. Despite a 2.2% drop in wallets holding at least 1 BTC since March, larger investors ("whales") have accumulated over 136,000 BTC during the same period. This divergence shows retail caution but strong institutional confidence. Although Bitcoin has lagged nearly 50% behind the Nasdaq this year, analysts attribute this to temporary liquidity pressures and softer risk appetite, not a fundamental breakdown. If liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin may be poised for a stronger performance in 2026.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price hasn’t kept up with equities, but something important is happening.

More BTC is being moved off exchanges, which often means people plan to hold it rather than sell. Smaller investors are stepping away, and big investors are buying.

The market may not be as uncertain as it looks.

BTC is leaving exchanges

Monthly changes in Bitcoin exchange reserves have turned negative, meaning more BTC is being withdrawn than deposited. This trend has stayed consistent even with weak price action.

Source: Alphractal

When coins leave exchanges, investors are choosing to hold rather than trade in the short term. On its own, this doesn’t guarantee a price rally.

Outflows can occur during both bullish and cautious periods. However, when withdrawals persist, they reduce liquid supply and signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long‑term value.

Fewer wallets, greater confidence

While Bitcoin is leaving exchanges, ownership patterns are also changing. Santiment data shows that wallets holding at least 1 BTC have fallen by 2.2% from their March peak.

Source: Santiment

That looks like weak belief, but here’s what’s interesting. Larger holders have been buying, adding more than 136,000 BTC over the same period.

Smaller participants are stepping away, and whales are increasing exposure. This doesn’t change prices right away, but it usually shows firm long-term confidence.

Lag today, gains tomorrow

Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range, with pace looking subdued.

Source: TradingView

That underperformance becomes clearer when compared to equities.

According to David Schassler, Head of Multi Asset Solutions, VanEck, Bitcoin has lagged the Nasdaq 100 by nearly 50% this year. But that gap may matter more going forward than it does today.

“Today’s weakness reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures, not a broken thesis.”

If liquidity improves, Bitcoin could respond better than stocks in 2026.


Final Thoughts

  • Bitcoin supply is tight as exchange balances fall.
  • Whales added 136K BTC, so there’s long-term confidence despite the boredom right now.
Next: PENGU down 73% in 5 months – Why the slump isn’t over yet
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Related Questions

QWhy are Bitcoin exchange reserves turning negative, and what does this indicate?

AMonthly changes in Bitcoin exchange reserves have turned negative, meaning more BTC is being withdrawn than deposited. This indicates that investors are choosing to hold Bitcoin for the long term rather than trade it in the short term, signaling confidence in its future value.

QWhat trend is observed among smaller Bitcoin wallets, and how does it contrast with whale activity?

AThe number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC has decreased by 2.2% since March, indicating that smaller investors are stepping away. In contrast, larger holders (whales) have been buying, adding over 136,000 BTC in the same period, showing strong long-term confidence.

QHow has Bitcoin's performance compared to equities like the Nasdaq 100 this year?

AAccording to David Schassler of VanEck, Bitcoin has lagged the Nasdaq 100 by nearly 50% this year. This underperformance is attributed to softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures rather than a fundamental issue with Bitcoin's value proposition.

QWhat could potentially drive Bitcoin to outperform stocks in 2026?

AIf liquidity conditions in the market improve, Bitcoin could respond better than stocks in 2026. The current weakness is seen as temporary, and a recovery in liquidity might lead to significant gains for Bitcoin.

QWhat are the key takeaways regarding Bitcoin's supply and investor sentiment from the article?

AThe key takeaways are: 1) Bitcoin supply is tightening as exchange balances fall, reducing liquid supply. 2) Whales have added a significant amount of BTC (136,000), demonstrating long-term confidence despite the current period of price stagnation and market boredom.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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