"Key thresholds not yet triggered, reversal signals absent—the true window for allocation still requires confirmation."
Recently, Bitcoin's price fell below the key level indicated in the October 31, 2025 report, confirming the downtrend. From a historical cycle perspective, the magnitude and rhythm of this pullback closely resemble those of past bear market phases. Consequently, the market's focus has shifted from "whether the trend has reversed" to "when the next more favorable window for allocation will arrive."
Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market starting point on October 28, 2022, based on a cyclical framework, and projected in July 6, 2023, that the cycle's peak might reach $125,000. Around the阶段性高点 (phase high) from late 2024 to October 2025, Bitcoin had repeatedly exhibited characteristics of the fifth bull market nearing its end; with the breach of the key level, the market has officially entered the bear market confirmation phase.
Against this backdrop, we have assessed the potential low range in terms of time and price using multiple quantitative models, including the one-year moving average, monthly Stochastic indicator, and monthly RSI, to determine whether downside risks have largely been cleared and whether the market is beginning to accumulate conditions for a shift from weakness to strength.
After Breaking Below the One-Year Moving Average, the Cycle Time Frame Points to 2026
In November 2025, Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases typically last about 12 months. Based on this推算 (projection), the next bull market may start in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the cycle low more likely to occur提前 (earlier) in the third quarter of 2026.
From a broader perspective, we believe that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is not primarily driven by block reward halvings but is more likely to align rhythmically with the U.S. midterm election cycle. Historical data shows that the midterm election cycles of 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 cycle have all coincided with major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the fluctuations in监管 (regulation) and political uncertainty brought by midterm elections better explain the timing distribution of Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms.
Technical Indicators Have Not Yet Reached Key Thresholds; Bottoming Still Requires "Reversal Confirmation"
Technically, the monthly Stochastic indicator, in the past five cycles, often completed its筑底 (bottoming) process after falling below the 15% "deep oversold" zone, with an upward reversal occurring within 1–3 months thereafter, marking the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%,尚未触及 (not yet reaching) the key threshold.
Similarly, the monthly RSI has historically formed a key support zone around 48, with true bottoming signals often appearing during a reversal confirmation phase characterized by "first breaking below the key level, then turning upward." The current RSI is around 50; although it is接近 (close to) the key区间 (range), a clear "break-below-and-rebound" structure has not yet emerged.
Neither of the two core indicators has given a clear bottom confirmation: the market has not yet seen the reversal confirmation corresponding to the "final round of集中出清 (concentrated liquidation)."
Overall, the final low of this bear market may not have appeared yet. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin more often completes its bottoming during phases of low trading volume, gradually消退 (subsiding) selling pressure, and declining market participation. In contrast, rapid pullbacks accompanied by连锁清算 (chain liquidations) and high-volume declines resemble阶段性投降式抛售 (phase capitulation selling) rather than the cycle's final low.
From the dual perspectives of the political cycle framework and technical indicator validation, we倾向于认为 (lean towards the view) that the真正值得 (truly worthy) window for resuming allocation requires waiting for key monthly indicators to reach extreme zones and then show reversal confirmation. Current prices are already接近 (close to) the range corresponding to historical lows, but reversal signals have not yet appeared. Patience is still needed during the bear market's final phase. The prerequisite for有序恢复配置 (orderly resumption of allocation) is confirming that downward momentum has衰竭 (exhausted), not merely judging a trend reversal based on prices approaching lows.
Some of the above views are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
