# Prediction Markets Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Prediction Markets", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Kalshi Traffic in the US Surges 1,500% Amid Intensified Regulatory Pressure

The U.S.-based prediction market platform Kalshi has experienced a dramatic surge in American traffic, with a 1,500% increase over the past year, according to Similarweb data. In July 2026, the platform received 15.4 million visits from the U.S., accounting for nearly 80% of its total traffic. This rapid growth coincides with escalating regulatory scrutiny, including a case from New Jersey being escalated to the U.S. Supreme Court over whether Kalshi's event contracts constitute gambling. Trading volume on Kalshi has grown even faster than web traffic, skyrocketing by approximately 4,500% year-over-year to around $40 billion in nominal monthly volume. The platform now represents nearly 79% of the entire prediction market industry's volume, with sports contracts alone making up 83% of its trades in July. Despite user agreements blocking direct access, Kalshi also saw significant traffic increases from restricted jurisdictions like Canada and the United Kingdom. The company has partnered with Canadian firm Wealthsimple to provide indirect access to its markets in such regions.

cryptonews.ru09/04 11:48

Kalshi Traffic in the US Surges 1,500% Amid Intensified Regulatory Pressure

cryptonews.ru09/04 11:48

Polymarket Launches Futures Trading

Predictive markets platform Polymarket has launched a perpetual futures service offering up to 20x leverage, allowing users to trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, commodities, and other assets. The platform, expanding beyond its traditional prediction markets, enables both long and short positions and promotes the new product as having deep liquidity and low fees. This expansion coincides with plans to raise significant capital, including a potential investment of up to $300 million from the 1789 Capital fund, associated with Donald Trump Jr., with an overall goal of attracting up to $1 billion. However, Polymarket faces regulatory challenges, with several countries—including Ukraine, Portugal, Argentina, Indonesia, Spain, and France—imposing restrictions or bans since early 2026. Additionally, a security incident resulted in users losing approximately $3.1 million in PUSD on the Polygon network due to a phishing attack exploiting a compromised third-party vendor's systems.

cryptonews.ru09/04 07:30

cryptonews.ru09/04 07:30

Michigan Authorities Continue to Push for Kalshi Block Ahead of Supreme Court Hearing

Michigan authorities secured a preliminary injunction to block the prediction market platform Kalshi from offering event contracts to state residents, calling its offerings "sports betting masquerading as an investment opportunity." The state's Attorney General stated the order protects residents from Kalshi's "predatory, unlicensed practices," with potential fines of up to $500,000 per day for violations. This is part of ongoing legal battles between U.S. states and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. In a conflicting federal move, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously ordered Kalshi to ignore a Michigan order, putting the company in an "impossible position." On the same day as Michigan's action, New Jersey petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to review a case against Kalshi, seeking clarity on whether the CFTC or state authorities have jurisdiction over prediction markets. Legal experts suggest the Supreme Court will likely eventually decide this jurisdictional conflict. Concurrently, some U.S. legislators have proposed bills to address perceived issues like insider trading on such platforms and to ban CFTC-registered platforms from offering event contracts that resemble sports betting.

cryptonews.ru09/03 21:37

Michigan Authorities Continue to Push for Kalshi Block Ahead of Supreme Court Hearing

cryptonews.ru09/03 21:37

Media: Kalshi Prepares the First Perpetual Oil Contract in the US

The prediction market platform Kalshi plans to file an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a perpetual futures contract linked to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, according to Bloomberg. If approved, this would be the first such perpetual oil futures contract traded on a regulated U.S. platform, bringing a popular crypto-market derivative format to the traditional energy sector. The contract, with no expiration date, would trade 24 hours a day, five days a week—a schedule designed to address regulatory concerns about round-the-clock markets. Perpetual futures, which gained prominence in crypto, allowed retail investors to trade oil during the Iran-Israel conflict when traditional futures markets were closed. This move occurs amid a public dispute between Kalshi and CME Group over moving traditional derivatives to continuous trading. The CFTC is currently reviewing a suspended CME proposal for 24/5 oil futures trading and consulting with oil companies and refiners, for whom benchmark price accuracy is crucial. The outcome could shape whether the oil market joins a broader shift toward 24/5 trading in finance.

cryptonews.ru09/03 09:15

Media: Kalshi Prepares the First Perpetual Oil Contract in the US

cryptonews.ru09/03 09:15

French Hill highlights CLARITY Act, with 15% probability of passage in 2026

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), a U.S. bill to establish federal crypto market rules, faces low odds of becoming law in 2026, according to prediction markets. While the House has passed it, the bill's progress in the Senate is uncertain. Prediction markets on Polymarket gave it just a 15% chance of full enactment by year-end, despite public support from lawmakers like Rep. French Hill. A key procedural vote (cloture) is scheduled for September 15th, requiring 60 Senate votes to advance; failure would likely doom its 2026 prospects. Traders see a higher probability (30-50%) of similar legislation passing by 2027 or 2028. The revised bill addresses SEC/CFTC jurisdiction, consumer protection, and oversight of crypto intermediaries.

cryptonews.ru09/03 05:12

French Hill highlights CLARITY Act, with 15% probability of passage in 2026

cryptonews.ru09/03 05:12

New Jersey Authorities Petition U.S. Supreme Court on Prediction Markets

New Jersey authorities have filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a jurisdictional dispute over who regulates prediction markets. Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and state gambling enforcement officials argue that companies like Kalshi, which offer event contracts on sports, are circumventing state gambling laws by claiming to operate under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. The petition challenges a previous federal appeals court ruling that favored Kalshi's argument of federal preemption. The state contends that a victory for Kalshi could invalidate all state-legal sports betting conducted outside CFTC-registered markets. Kalshi maintains that it cannot be regulated by 50 different state authorities and remains confident in prior court decisions. The Supreme Court's potential review of the case could set a precedent for whether state or federal agencies hold primary regulatory authority over prediction markets.

cryptonews.ru09/02 21:01

New Jersey Authorities Petition U.S. Supreme Court on Prediction Markets

cryptonews.ru09/02 21:01

New Jersey officials petition US Supreme Court over prediction markets

New Jersey officials have petitioned the US Supreme Court to decide whether state or federal regulators have authority over prediction market companies. The state argues that platforms like Kalshi, which is registered with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), are violating state gambling laws by offering sports betting contracts nationwide without complying with individual state regulations. The petition follows a federal appeals court ruling favoring Kalshi, which claimed the CFTC's oversight preempts state laws. New Jersey warns that if Kalshi prevails, all sports betting on CFTC-registered markets could become federally illegal, even in states where it's permitted. Kalshi has expressed confidence in the lower court rulings and opposes state-by-state regulation. The Supreme Court's potential decision could determine the future regulatory landscape for prediction markets.

cointelegraph09/02 19:21

New Jersey officials petition US Supreme Court over prediction markets

cointelegraph09/02 19:21

Chances for CLARITY Act Remain Uncertain as Decisive Senate Vote Looms

The prospects for the CLARITY Act's passage remain uncertain as a key Senate procedural vote on September 15 approaches. While prediction markets like Kalshi show a high likelihood of the vote occurring, they assign a very low probability (Polymarket estimates 13%) of the bill becoming law in 2026, a sharp decline from earlier in the year. The September 15 vote is a cloture motion requiring 60 votes to end debate and allow the Senate to consider the bill. Even if successful, significant hurdles remain. The legislation aims to create a federal framework for crypto markets, granting the CFTC authority over spot digital commodity markets and the SEC oversight of certain securities activities. However, its path is complicated by disputes over ethics rules for officials, bank concerns about stablecoin yields, and provisions for DeFi and software developers, which have eroded bipartisan support. Analysts have significantly lowered their odds of final passage. Meanwhile, regulators like the SEC and CFTC are advancing their own crypto rules, potentially establishing a framework without Congress. With a crowded legislative calendar, a failure to proceed after September 15 could delay comprehensive crypto market structure legislation until a lame-duck session or 2027.

cryptonews.ru09/01 17:06

Chances for CLARITY Act Remain Uncertain as Decisive Senate Vote Looms

cryptonews.ru09/01 17:06

The Most Popular Topic on Kalshi Is Not Politics, But Divorce

The most requested market on prediction platform Kalshi is not about politics, the Fed, or sports, but a personal question: "Will my partner divorce me?" This highlights a key tension: while Kalshi focuses on creating markets for significant political and economic events to attract headlines, its user base is increasingly interested in markets related to their personal lives. Andy Ross, Kalshi's head of institutional and a Wall Street veteran, calls prediction markets the most revolutionary force in finance since Eurodollar futures. He argues they operate like commodity exchanges, not bookmakers, a model that has driven an 800% growth in institutional trading volume. Ross also notes that with the new Fed Chair providing fewer forward guides, prediction market pricing is filling the void, becoming a crucial tool for gauging market expectations, with millions being wagered on Fed-related outcomes despite disagreements with traditional firms.

cryptonews.ru09/01 13:37

The Most Popular Topic on Kalshi Is Not Politics, But Divorce

cryptonews.ru09/01 13:37

Kalshi Bans Former Republican Representative Santos from Congressional Committee, Imposes $71,000 Fine

Former U.S. Representative George Santos has been permanently banned from the prediction market platform Kalshi and ordered to pay over $71,000. This action follows his trading on a market related to his own attendance at a presidential State of the Union address, a personal outcome he could influence. This marks the first time Kalshi has banned a user for violating its trading policies, signaling that platforms are now independently sanctioning users for insider trading. Santos also recently settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), paying a $35,000 fine for manipulating the contract price by making public statements about his planned attendance. He did not admit or deny the CFTC's findings. Santos was expelled from Congress in late 2023 following a House ethics investigation. His case is part of a recurring pattern of insider trading issues on prediction markets. Other recent incidents include the arrest of a U.S. Army soldier for trading on non-public information regarding Venezuela's president on Polymarket and a CFTC order against a former White House teleprompter operator for profiting from advance access to presidential speeches. While bipartisan legislative proposals to ban such trading are pending, platforms like Kalshi are implementing their own measures, such as employment verification and permanent bans, to self-regulate.

cryptonews.ru09/01 05:44

Kalshi Bans Former Republican Representative Santos from Congressional Committee, Imposes $71,000 Fine