DeFi Report, a company specializing in cryptocurrency and macroeconomic analysis, in its latest assessment of Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market, announced that the bear market has entered its final phase. The analysis states that approximately 85% of the bear cycle is already behind us, and the remaining 15%, which will determine the market's fate, largely depends on global macroeconomic events.
According to the company's on-chain cost analysis, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is exhibiting movements very similar to previous cyclical bases in terms of on-chain data. However, it was noted that spot and futures trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since the end of 2019, which was described as a clear sign of a "time spread capitulation" process occurring on-chain. Additionally, as factors increasing market pressure, sales of assets by miners redirecting their energy capacity to artificial intelligence companies were cited.
The analysis indicated that a fall of Bitcoin to a "deep value" level of $55,000 and below would depend on macroeconomic liquidity conditions in the coming weeks. Key factors pressuring risk assets were noted as the fact that the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds exceeded 5.2%, reaching a 20-year high, and the Federal Reserve's intention to raise interest rates.
Another notable event in global markets was the covert liquidity provision measures taken by the US Treasury Department and the Bank of Japan to strengthen the Yen. Analysts described this mechanism, which allows foreign institutions to provide liquidity by pledging US bonds instead of selling them to the Federal Reserve, as "moderate quantitative easing" (QE Light). The 15% rise in gold prices resulting from this covert liquidity injection and the influence of global risks indicate that investors are preparing to hedge against inflationary pressure, and a similar liquidity flow could in the future switch to Bitcoin.
Analysts assessing technical levels and strategies consider the 200-week moving average, currently at $63,800, a critical threshold. The scenario of reaching a bottom would strengthen if Bitcoin closes the month above the $68,700–$69,800 range.
*This is not investment advice.
end-content
