Mapping Bitcoin’s year-end slowdown as leverage exits the market

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-17Last updated on 2025-12-17

Abstract

Bitcoin's market activity is slowing down significantly toward the end of the year, with Open Interest dropping nearly 50% from recent highs—representing over $30 billion in closed leveraged positions. Trading volumes have also declined, with CEX volume falling to around $191 billion and ETF activity dropping to approximately $39 billion. Despite holding relatively steady around $86,400, Bitcoin's price is below key moving averages, and indicators like RSI and OBV reflect weak buying pressure and thinning participation. This cautious, defensive stance is typical of year-end behavior as institutional investors reduce risk, unwind positions, and await new catalysts.

Bitcoin’s market is losing pace. Open Interest (OI) has fallen as institutions unwind leveraged positions. Trading activity has slowed, too, leaving prices in a narrow range.

This may very well just be a breather. With leverage coming off the table, Bitcoin [BTC] is going into the year-end in a quieter, more defensive stance.

BTC activity takes a hit

Bitcoin market activity is easing as we put 2025 behind us.

Data from Alphractal showed that OI has fallen deep, down nearly 50% from recent highs. In value terms, more than $30 billion in leveraged positions have been closed across exchanges.

Source: Alphractal

OI has dropped from above $70 billion to around $35-40 billion, even as Bitcoin’s price has held relatively steady. In fact, the slowdown followed a common year-end pattern.

Institutional investors typically cut risk, take profits, and close positions before closing their books. As leverage comes off, activity also slows across Futures, Spot markets, and ETFs.

Source: Alphractal

This chart confirmed that the drop had to do with real position closures, not just price changes. This is a pause in activity as we approach the holidays.

Trading volumes are quiet too

By mid-December, Bitcoin trading volume across CEXs fell to around $191 billion, down from roughly $263 billion in the first half of November. ETF activity slowed even more, with volumes dropping to about $39 billion from over $50 billion a month earlier.

Source: CryptoQuant

In short, both exchange and ETF volumes were trending lower as prices moved sideways at press time.

Binance continued to dominate centralized trading, handling more than $50 billion in volume, but overall participation softened.

Prices are drifting

Bitcoin traded at $86,400 at press time, down from recent highs near $92,000 earlier in December.

BTC was below its key moving averages, with the 50-day near $90,000 and the 100-day and 200-day well above $100,000. Short-term pace is weak.

Source: TradingView

Daily RSI was near 38, so there was limited buying pressure. OBV also trended lower and participation continued to thin out. Market is careful as traders wait for catalysts to come back.

Final Thoughts

  • Bitcoin’s Open Interest drops nearly 50%.
  • Trading volumes slide to $191B on CEXs too and $39B on ETFs. A cautious year-end is upon us.
Next: Cantor turns bullish on Hyperliquid, sees ‘a path for HYPE eclipsing $200’
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