Today, global financial markets are focused on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be one of the most important macroeconomic indicators of the week from the perspective of Bitcoin and overall risk sentiment.
For Bitcoin, the decisive moment is not only whether the data comes in above or below expectations, but also how it affects expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
If core inflation turns out to be lower than expected, markets may price in a more dovish Fed policy. In this scenario, pressure on bond yields and the dollar could lead to buying of risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation data could force the Fed to be more cautious about cutting interest rates, potentially leading to a stronger dollar and higher US bond yields, as well as creating short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Although there are rumors that the Fed might even raise interest rates in the coming months (according to FEDWatcholl, the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at 48.1%), US inflation data for July, which the Fed closely watches when making interest rate decisions, has been published.
Here are the published US inflation figures:
Annual Consumer Price Index: Announced 3.4% – Expected 3.4% – Previous 3.5%
Monthly Consumer Price Index: Announced 0.1% – Expected 0.1% – Previous -0.4%
Annual Core Consumer Price Index: Announced 2.5% – Expected 2.5% – Previous 2.6%
Core Consumer Price Index (Monthly): Announced 0.2% – Expected 0.2% – Previous 0.0%
The Consumer Price Index is a key metric used to measure consumer demand trends and changes in inflation in the US.
Bitcoin's first reaction after the CPI data release!
*This is not investment advice.
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