Trading Strategies

Shares practical strategies, techniques, and risk management methods. By combining market case studies with technical analysis, it helps traders optimize decision-making and enhance profitability.

Hyperliquid: Why whales are betting on HYPE’s yield strategy

A Hyperliquid (HYPE) whale executed a strategic accumulation in late 2024, making incremental spot buys to amass over 250,115 tokens at a favorable average cost. This behavior, mirrored by other large holders, indicated a coordinated move to position for yield ahead of staking rather than speculative trading. The protocol's Total Value Locked (TVL) grew significantly in 2025, supported by strong and consistent fee generation. A key staking strategy was demonstrated when a large holder deposited tokens to an exchange in early 2026, realizing substantial profits after compounding staking rewards. This exit was planned and disciplined, driven by yield capture, not short-term price action. Hyperliquid's market stability remains dependent on sustained trading activity and fee revenue.

ambcrypto4h ago

Hyperliquid: Why whales are betting on HYPE’s yield strategy

ambcrypto4h ago

Trader's Practical Guide: Avoiding 'Catching Falling Knives' - A Bottom-Fishing Methodology Integrating Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment

This guide outlines a systematic framework for buying stocks at their bottom, integrating fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis to avoid premature buying ("catching a falling knife"). The process begins by identifying the catalyst for a stock's decline and assessing whether it's a temporary issue or a fundamental break in the investment thesis. A thorough fundamental review using the "4M" framework (Business Model, Moat, Management, Margin of Safety) and conservative DCF valuation is essential. Technically, patience is key; wait for signs of seller exhaustion. Strategies include buying on the right side of a V-shaped reversal, after a 5-day EMA crosses above the 20-day EMA, near long-term support levels, or after a base forms at least 5% above 52-week lows. Riskier "waterfall decline" entries require careful scaling-in. Sentiment analysis acts as a contrarian indicator. Extreme pessimism, such as drastically lowered price targets or widespread capitulation from retail investors, can signal a potential bottom. Combining these elements creates a disciplined approach to identify high-probability entry points with a margin of safety.

marsbit23h ago

Trader's Practical Guide: Avoiding 'Catching Falling Knives' - A Bottom-Fishing Methodology Integrating Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment

marsbit23h ago

Wall Street 'Withdraws' from Bitcoin Basis Arbitrage: CME Falls Out of Favor, the Golden Age of Arbitrage Comes to an End

Wall Street is retreating from the once-lucrative Bitcoin basis trade, as narrowing spreads between spot and futures prices have made the strategy barely profitable. The cash-and-carry trade, which involved buying Bitcoin spot (often via ETFs) and selling futures to capture the premium, has seen annualized returns drop to around 5%, down from nearly 17% a year ago, barely covering funding and execution costs. This compression has led to a significant shift in market structure: CME's Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen below Binance's for the first time since 2023, indicating a withdrawal of hedge funds and large US accounts from this specific arbitrage strategy. While CME was the preferred venue for this institutional trade, Binance's dominance in perpetual futures has remained steady. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs initially fueled the trade's popularity but also accelerated its decline by attracting capital that quickly eroded the arbitrage opportunity. The market is now maturing, with participants shifting from simple leveraged directional bets to using options, hedges, and expressing views through diverse instruments like ETFs. This increased efficiency has naturally narrowed price disparities between venues. As the era of easy, high returns from basis trading ends, participants are expected to seek more complex strategies in decentralized markets and other crypto assets.

marsbitYesterday 11:34

Wall Street 'Withdraws' from Bitcoin Basis Arbitrage: CME Falls Out of Favor, the Golden Age of Arbitrage Comes to an End

marsbitYesterday 11:34

Interview with Jeff Ma: The Three-Year Journey to A9 by the Prodigy Trader of '04

Interview with Jeff Ma, a young prodigy trader from 2004, detailing his three-year journey to amass a fortune of 1 billion RMB (A9 level). Starting from modest means (A6), he achieved exponential wealth growth through high-leverage trading strategies, despite experiencing significant losses and debt from liquidation events. A participant in multiple Bitget trading competitions, Jeff’s success came at the cost of relentless effort—sleepless nights, round-the-clock market monitoring, and immense psychological pressure. His story reflects both exceptional trading skill and remarkable resilience in the volatile crypto market.

marsbit2 days ago 02:17

Interview with Jeff Ma: The Three-Year Journey to A9 by the Prodigy Trader of '04

marsbit2 days ago 02:17

Holding Crypto Now Means Losing Money Continuously

"Crypto expert cyclop argues that the traditional 'buy and hold' strategy is no longer effective in today's crypto market due to extreme token dilution. Since 2017, the number of tokens has exploded, with attention per token dropping drastically as supply grew 24x per capita. Most new tokens are designed to fail with high fully diluted valuations and heavy unlocks. The winning strategy has shifted from finding a single '100x coin' to capitalizing on rapid liquidity rotations. The author details how they turned $8,000 into seven figures by mastering these rotations: starting with airdrops (e.g., Arbitrum), then early Solana memecoins (e.g., POPCAT, WIF), followed by 'real yield' protocols (e.g., Hyperliquid), and finally 'house tokens' of casino-like platforms (e.g., Pump.fun). The market cycles through phases: value (real revenue) -> helicopter money (airdrops) -> casino (memes) -> crash -> structured extraction (ICOs, points) -> repeat. Success in 2026 requires identifying these rotations early, using clear triggers for entry, practicing strict risk management with invalidation conditions, and taking profits aggressively. The key is to stack compounded gains from multiple rotations rather than holding stagnant assets."

marsbit01/21 06:10

Holding Crypto Now Means Losing Money Continuously

marsbit01/21 06:10

1-Minute Breakdown of Quantitative Models: High Rollers Hunt Down Trading Bots

In the emerging prediction markets, a mysterious trader known as a4385 executed a sophisticated attack against quantitative trading bots, netting $280,000 in 48 hours. These markets allow users to bet on short-term price movements of assets like XRP—for example, predicting whether the price will rise or fall within 15 minutes. Quant algorithms typically profit by exploiting散户情绪 and market inefficiencies with毫秒级 precision. On January 17, 2026, a4385 placed a "rise" bet in an XRP market when the price was below the starting price and the probability of success was only 36%. In the final minute before settlement, a4385 executed large market buy orders, artificially pumping XRP’s price just above the starting threshold at the exact moment of settlement—ensuring his bet paid out. The strategy relied on shallow order book depth (due to weekend trading and XRP’s lower liquidity), allowing a4385 to move the market with relatively modest volume (~$569,000 in the final minute. Each operation cost about $6,200 in fees, but yielded returns as high as $40,218 per round. To hedge against post-settlement price drops, a4385 held short positions of equivalent size, ensuring overall portfolio stability. This required significant capital—over a million dollars—highlighting that this was not luck or a散户 victory, but a calculated exploit of market structure, liquidity conditions, and quantitative model behavior.

marsbit01/21 04:45

1-Minute Breakdown of Quantitative Models: High Rollers Hunt Down Trading Bots

marsbit01/21 04:45

XRP’s Blessing In Disguise: How Investors Could Benefit Soon

Crypto analyst ChartNerd suggests XRP's recent flash crash, which saw its price drop over 4.6% to below $1.95, could be a "blessing in disguise." The decline has pushed the price into a key sell-side liquidity zone around $1.80, an area that has historically acted as strong support for approximately 13 months. Rather than signaling structural weakness, this retest is viewed as a "clarity response" that may establish a clearer directional bias and potentially benefit investors. While some fear a further drop to $1.20, others remain cautiously optimistic. Following the crash, XRP's price has stabilized above $1.95, accompanied by a notable spike in trading volume.

bitcoinist01/20 20:37

XRP’s Blessing In Disguise: How Investors Could Benefit Soon

bitcoinist01/20 20:37

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

An experienced macro trader presents a contrarian thesis that 2026 will be the "year of the bond," with long-duration U.S. Treasuries (TLT/TMF) poised to outperform stocks. The core argument is built on several pillars: gold's 200% rally historically signals deflationary risk, not sustained inflation; the U.S. faces a crushing $1.2 trillion annual interest bill, creating a fiscal doom loop; Treasury issuance is dangerously short-term, amplifying refinancing risk; and long bond short interest is at extreme, crowded levels. Additional factors include cooling inflation, weak economic indicators, deflationary trade war risks, and the high probability of Fed intervention (QE/Yield Curve Control) to lower long-term yields if stress emerges. The trade offers asymmetric upside: TLT yields ~4.5% while waiting, and a 200bps drop in yields could trigger a 35-45%+ price surge, accelerated by a short squeeze. The author has allocated 60% of their portfolio to this thesis, betting on a policy and macro regime shift.

marsbit01/20 06:46

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

marsbit01/20 06:46

Stop Grinding Mindlessly, the Best Airdrops Are Often 'Unexpected Encounters'

The article argues that the most valuable crypto airdrops are often "unexpected" and not the result of grinding tedious, predefined tasks. Instead, the best strategy is to build a genuine on-chain footprint by actively using protocols you believe in. Past examples like TIA, DYM, and Monad rewarded active users on various chains and in top protocols, not just those who farmed points. Publicized criteria for points programs are often exploited by Sybil attackers, diluting rewards and leading to burnout and disappointment when expectations aren't met. In contrast, retroactive airdrops with hidden criteria have less competition, as incentive-chasers avoid uncertain rewards. The core logic is that projects value real, high-value on-chain activity over low-value, repetitive Sybil behavior. By focusing on authentic engagement rather than farming, users can build a strong on-chain reputation, avoid being filtered out as a Sybil, and be pleasantly surprised by future airdrops.

marsbit01/20 04:11

Stop Grinding Mindlessly, the Best Airdrops Are Often 'Unexpected Encounters'

marsbit01/20 04:11

One Piece of Content Attracts 150 Million Views, Revealing the Monetization Code of the Super Individual Business

Dan Koe, a prominent creator in the "super individual" or one-person business space, gained massive attention with a viral post titled “How to fix your entire life in 1 day,” which reached 150 million views on X. Despite earning only $4,495 in platform revenue from the post, his actual income stems from a diversified business model that includes paid newsletters, books, and an AI tool called Eden. In 2024, he reported earning over $4 million annually. Koe’s content targets individuals seeking financial independence through personal branding and content creation. His success is built on years of consistent content output and a relatable narrative of failure and persistence. While his viral article served as a top-of-funnel audience builder, his real revenue comes from converting followers into paying customers through premium products. The article also discusses how platforms like X are incentivizing long-form content to compete with short-video platforms, offering financial rewards to boost creator engagement. However, the surge in AI-assisted content creation has led to widespread imitation of Koe’s style, though few achieve similar success due to the importance of trust, timing, and existing audience size. Ultimately, the "super individual" economy benefits a small number of established creators, while most followers remain consumers rather than successful practitioners.

比推01/19 14:28

One Piece of Content Attracts 150 Million Views, Revealing the Monetization Code of the Super Individual Business