Inside Solana’s whale buying, ETF demand and rising downside risks

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-11Last updated on 2026-01-11

Abstract

Solana's market in 2026 was shaped by significant whale activity and institutional ETF demand, driving price growth. New whales, including ETFs, provided sustained bullish capital inflows, while a dormant whale re-entered with an $10.87 million purchase. The network demonstrated dominance by processing eight times more daily transactions than its closest competitors, highlighting strong real-world utility. However, technical analysis revealed growing downside risks. SOL faced potential declines to $102 if it lost key support at $122, with a further drop into the $50s possible. The RSI and MACD indicators showed weakness, and a liquidity cluster below $120 could accelerate selling pressure during market downturns. In summary, while fundamental demand from ETFs and whales provided support, weakening technical signals and clustered liquidity below key levels increased Solana's vulnerability to a significant correction if bearish sentiment intensified.

2026 shaped up as a pivotal year for Solana, with whale activity and institutional flows shaping price direction.

On-chain data also showed Solana processing eight times more Daily Transactions than rival networks.

At press time, ETF flows remained positive, with US Solana Spot ETF data showing persistent green sessions since December 2025.

That backdrop raised a key question: Did Solana maintain momentum, or did cracks begin to form?

New and old whales converge

Solana’s new whales, represented by ETFs, continued to pour bullish capital into the ecosystem since the 4th of December, fueling price growth.

On top of that, a dormant whale reactivated with an 80K SOL buy worth $10.87 million from Binance, signaling strong market conviction.

The combination of ETF inflows and whale activity suggested a strong position, though Solana needed to navigate key support levels for sustained growth.

Network activity stayed dominant

Solana dominated Daily Transactions, processing 8 times more than its closest competitors, underscoring its role as a key leader.

This high throughput reinforced Solana’s practical use case, demonstrating real network demand and strong participation across blockchain activity.

SOL chart signals flagged downside risk

Looking at the daily chart, Solana [SOL] traded at $136 on the 10th of January, but faced downside risks if it completed equal lows around $102 in a bearish market.

On the weekly timeframe, Solana faced pressure if it failed to hold the $122-$145 range on lower timeframes. Losing $122 support could lead to a drop to $102, marked by equal highs and a loss of ascending support, pointing to the 61% Fibonacci retracement at $102.

If Solana lost this zone, it could drop further into the $50s. Weakness in RSI and MACD indicated bottoming and increased downside risks if these levels failed.

Liquidity clustered below the price

Solana’s 2-week Liquidity Heatmap showed concentrated positions below $120, which could act as a magnet for downside pressure if bearish sentiment intensified.

A sharp move into that zone risked accelerating liquidations, especially during broader market weakness.

Final Thoughts

  • Solana’s market structure remained supported by ETF demand and whale accumulation, even as technical signals weakened.
  • Price action around the $117–$120 zone may shape near-term sentiment, especially if broader conditions soften.

Related Questions

QWhat were the two main factors that shaped Solana's price direction in 2026 according to the article?

AWhale activity and institutional flows, specifically ETF demand.

QHow did Solana's transaction processing capacity compare to its closest competitors?

ASolana processed eight times more Daily Transactions than its closest competitors.

QWhat significant purchase did a dormant whale make, and what did it signal?

AA dormant whale reactivated to buy 80K SOL worth $10.87 million from Binance, signaling strong market conviction.

QWhat was the key downside price level identified by the 61% Fibonacci retracement?

AThe key downside level identified was $102.

QAccording to the liquidity heatmap, where was liquidity concentrated, and what risk did this pose?

ALiquidity was concentrated below $120, which could act as a magnet for downside pressure and risk accelerating liquidations if bearish sentiment intensified.

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