Speaker: Fu Peng, Chief Economist of New Huo Group
Compiled by: Eric, Foresight News
On April 23, Beijing time, at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, Fu Peng, the newly appointed Chief Economist of the New Huo Group and a well-known domestic macroeconomics scholar, delivered his first public speech of 2026. In this speech, Fu Peng publicly elaborated for the first time on his understanding of crypto assets and his interpretation of the position of crypto assets in the current macroeconomic environment.
The author has compiled the full content of Fu Peng's speech, with some edits.
Many people have been frantically asking me these past few days why I have gotten so close to this so-called 'crypto circle' or crypto asset circle. Actually, this connection started around 2022, so it's been about four years now.
Even when I was in traditional finance, I was closely following and tracking the trends of the entire crypto asset market. Of course, today I'm here giving this speech for a simple reason: I just want to tell you a story from history. Because for me, I am actually a major beneficiary of the红利 (bonus/benefits) of the last era. So you might think my title is 'Economist', but I'm not actually an academic. My core experience over the past 25 years, what I've really been doing, is what you understand as traditional Hedge Fund activities.
You must be wondering, why would these traditional capital, these traditional financial people or money, start paying attention to it (crypto assets)?
I've been saying over the past year or so that the future will definitely be **'FICC + C'**, meaning大类资产配置 (large-scale asset allocation) will include crypto assets. Many people want to know why, so I'll take this opportunity to briefly share my thoughts. After this sharing, if you think it through, you might already have the answer regarding what the market is like, how asset prices will move, etc. So I'll help puncture this layer of window paper today.
We need to turn the clock back to the origin point of FICC大类资产 (FICC large-scale assets). What time is that? Roughly the late 1970s to early 1980s. Actually, in the past ten years, those of you here can already very clearly recognize that the world's overall large framework and structure is undergoing huge changes. And this kind of change most closely resembles the time period of the 70s and 80s in the post-WWII (history).
For example, I just saw Chairman Xiao Feng also talk about artificial intelligence, and other guests mentioned AI integration. As an important technological advancement and productivity driver, every round of technological progress and productivity improvement reshapes all industries. These industries include all forms of business, and it inevitably includes the financial sector. Our finance is not一成不变的 (static/unchanging), absolutely not.
Look at movies or TV shows like "The Greed of Man" (大时代 - Da Shidai) or "The Wolf of Wall Street". The finance portrayed there is people in the pit wearing jackets and shouting orders, or you go to the NYSE, maybe many people still think finance is about报价成交 (quoting and成交 (executing)) on the floor? Of course, many reporters still like to use this kind of floor trading background for news reports.
If you go to Chicago to see the earliest interest rate derivatives market, or the London Metal Exchange (LME), you can still see these historical traces preserved. That's right, that was the most traditional finance, you could say finance before the (19)60s and 70s. People wearing jackets quoting, using typewriters, punch cards to complete转账的交易支付 (transfer transactions and payments). For the Chinese-speaking circle or for most Chinese people, the impression of trading is in the stock hall looking at the so-called翻牌机 (price board), filling out order slips, stuffing them into the counter, then having a young lady use a dedicated phone line to call the exchange to complete the order成交 (execution).
Not all finance or trading stayed in that era. The biggest changes in finance also必然 (inevitably) change with technological progress.
So in the last technological advancement period, the productivity represented by semiconductors, computers, personal computers, DOS systems, Windows systems, etc., i.e., technological progress. It restructured our financial industry landscape in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The large-scale asset trading everyone is familiar with now, simply put, is a fusion of financial assets like interest rates, commodities, exchange rates, stocks, etc.
And the birth of FICC was in the early 1980s. Around the 70s, pricing for financial derivative products, like option pricing, the Black-Scholes model, etc., things you should have learned in school. But think about it, without the large-scale application and popularization of computers, if it took十几分钟、二十几分钟甚至三十几分钟 (ten-something, twenty-something, even thirty-something minutes) to calculate the报价定价 (quote and price) of a financial derivative or financial asset, how could I possibly complete报价交易成交 (quote, trade, and execute)?
Starting in '85, all our so-called professional investors and investment institutions began using Bloomberg terminals. I started using Reuters' Reuters 3000 around '97, '98, during the Asian financial crisis, then later Reuters Xtra, and later Eikon. So in other words, the era of computers, semiconductors, information technology, and data created the later FICC.
We got asset classes, fusion between assets, cross-asset trading, hedge funds, programmatic trading, things everyone knows, like (Renaissance Technologies') Medallion Fund. Without this productivity进步 (progress), finance would still be stuck in the era many ordinary people imagine, where traders are hands in the pit wearing jackets and shouting orders.
Wall Street's JP Morgan became the biggest leader in financial derivative products. At that time, JP Morgan hired Cambridge top graduate Blythe Masters. This sister became the奠定者 (cornerstone/founder) of the entire financial derivatives market and turned FICC business into the most profitable part of mainstream Wall Street financial institutions. Of course, this离不开 (could not be separated from) the world's turbulence in the (19)70s and 80s. Because remember one thing, the origin point of technological progress is simultaneously the origin point of world turbulence.
So technological progress, at a certain stage, will coexist with turbulence in the world's institutional order. So in the (19)70s and 80s we experienced the Cold War, the Middle East wars, the US dollar oil crisis, the so-called暴涨 (surge) in gold prices at that time, systemic decoupling. But, human civilization is always机遇与风险同行 (opportunities and risks go hand in hand).
While world order was chaotic on one side, our computers, semiconductors, and information technology were rising. I used to joke that in that time there was a strange investment portfolio: simultaneously investing in "humanity has a future" and "humanity has no future".
Think about it, not to say the past ten years is a bit long, but roughly starting around 2019, look at what you hold in your hands, haven't both "humanity has a future" and "humanity has no future" assets been held until today? Of course, by now, when we all start to realize that artificial intelligence, data, computing power这些东西 (these things) will become the most important productivity forces of the next era, the game is actually already more than half over.
And the entire first half is what everyone recognizes as the traditional crypto circle. Why am I saying this? Because remember, nothing is一成不变的 (static), everything is constantly being重构 (restructured/rebuilt), constantly gaining重生 (rebirth) in the process of development.
So I said at the time, it's very possible that the moment I enter this circle, I don't know if it will leave an important mark in history later. Just like when Blythe Masters entered JP Morgan, did it become an important node?
(This node) is宣告 (declaring/announcing) the end of the early development stage of the past 10 to 15 years, and the arrival of a new development stage. In these two stages, investors, participants, market institutions, game rules will all undergo huge changes. Or rather, they are already undergoing huge changes. Just now when I was interviewed by reporters, I said, probably many of the thinking patterns you became familiar with over the past 15 years, the paradigms you've been used to for the past 10, 15 years, might undergo huge changes. Of course, if you have been in the traditional financial field long enough, you actually know exactly what is about to happen. It's just like China back then, we had large-scale exchanges set up by provincial financial offices, we had a large amount of financial assets. But later, with the gradual enhancement of compliance, simply put, it will be优胜劣汰 (survival of the fittest).
Then financial derivatives were gradually incorporated into the asset portfolios of financial institutions. Our entire crypto asset industry is actually going through the same process. Like now, everyone might take大宗商品 (commodities) for granted, but you need to know, before the (19)80s, financial derivatives for commodities were not widespread at all, most people couldn't truly trade them.
The assets that are now taken for granted like copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, palm oil, etc., didn't exist; now everyone thinks trading exchange rates is convenient, but back then you'd find they didn't exist either; now we can easily trade government bonds, trade interest rate futures, which also didn't exist back then. Actually, does this feeling resemble 2009, when we started having stock index futures, started having options, started having derivative products?
If you have (that feeling), then you understand this is the same time point. So the technological progress of that time promoted the transformation and fusion of traditional finance towards FICC. Today it's the same logic, data, computing power, artificial intelligence, plus underlying technology, this underlying technology is actually encryption technology or blockchain technology. With technology as the core, it is重构 (restructuring) finance, our finance is also changing.
So we have been paying attention in the past, but to be honest, we wouldn't participate, completely would not participate. So I jokingly said, maybe in the early days, you确实要讲点信仰 (really had to talk about some faith), talk about so-called原教旨主义 (fundamentalism), right? Everyone had to have faith in this thing. But as real capital, they won't excessively participate in this kind of faith-based trading in the early stages.
(Crypto assets) only gradually get incorporated into the asset management framework when they grow up and achieve确定性 (certainty). For example, if we were trading something like red beans or mung beans before, do you think large financial institutions would include it as part of asset allocation? Impossible. But today we can turn copper into futures and options, we can make it into ETFs, we can include it in the entire investment portfolio.
This kind of transformation is exactly the scenario happening in the entire crypto circle ecosystem. 2022 was the first time I真正开始有交集 (truly started having intersections) with some big shots in this circle. The缘分 (fate/connection) began in 2021. At that time, I said something in an interview. Bitcoin was around $70,000 then, but when the reporter asked me, my personality is very straightforward, I said it's simple, according to our path framework, we really can't understand what this asset is.
Because all the faith-based things you are talking about, we don't认可 (recognize/accept). We have our own way of interpreting it. For example, regarding价值维护的功能 (value preservation function), we will use our framework and language to interpret it.
(I said in the interview) I thought we didn't have the time yet, or hadn't reached the time to介入 (intervene in/enter) this asset. But I said we are indeed observing it, but still不太清楚 (not very clear) about the things you are talking about. My understanding and model for it (crypto assets) weren't fully formed yet. But I said I had a feeling, because the US CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) had already clearly defined it as a commodity, a tradable financial asset. For me, I can very simply利用 (utilize) this definition to understand one of its attributes.
I said one sentence at the time, I'll make a blind guess: if in '22, with大幅度收紧 (large-scale tightening) of liquidity, then in our traditional asset circle, I can easily see that those估值资产 (valuation assets) will experience大规模杀估值行情 (large-scale multiple compression/valuation killing行情 (market conditions)). I said if my understanding of it is correct, it will accompany the multiple compression of valuation assets带来同样的杀估值的行情 (bring the same multiple compression行情). I said I'll make a blind guess (Bitcoin would) fall by half. This is why later, at the end of '22 when it fell to $20,000, many people in the crypto circle contacted me, because they suddenly realized maybe the times were changing.
Of course, actually, over the past few years of exchange, many of the真正的 (real) big shots in the crypto circle I consider are like the big shots in the traditional financial circle back in the day. In the early days, everyone was actually quite粗犷 (rough/unsophisticated). You can think about it, including China's, for example, commodity futures trading experts, in the early years, which ones weren't粗犷的 (rough)? Which ones didn't need to搏一搏，单车变摩托 (gamble a bit, bicycle变成 (turn into) motorcycle)? But, those who can truly achieve the future are those who, when it's time to转, not called转型 (transformation),叫转折 (turning point), they quickly absorb and complete this转折.
And if you still go according to the experience of those days, basically those created by the times will陆陆续续地又被时代逐渐的淘汰掉 (one after another be gradually淘汰掉 (eliminated) by the times again). My personal observation is that '25, '26 might be the time point for this crypto asset that we speak of.
You can tell me what you think it (crypto assets) is, and I will also absorb and fuse from a genuine traditional financial perspective to understand this matter. I will also tell you how I understand this type of asset using our path logic. After a few years of包容融合 (inclusive fusion), everyone has actually formed a new system.
And these past few years一直包括去年的年底 (一直 including the end of last year). Actually, from our perspective, it was the新一轮 (new round) of liquidity tightening bringing valuation squeeze. And the crypto asset circle experienced the same story again. What does that mean? It means the path we are taking is right. This包容和融合 (inclusiveness and fusion) will eventually form不分彼此 (no distinction between you and me),也就是 (that is) the traditional ones like the 70s, 80s, traditional like "The Wolf of Wall Street" (portrayed) stock traders and those later doing large-scale assets.
So the future will definitely be **'FICC + C'**,不会再分太多的你我 (won't再分 (separate) too much you and me). Of course, for us, another most important point on the other end is合规 (compliance). So '25 is actually an important元年 (first year). Whether it's the stablecoin bill, or the确定性 (certainty) bills for digital assets or crypto assets that we see, two important bills have actually already told us the answer for this market. At this time it's simple, in the future you will see Wall Street financial institutions, former traditional financial institutions quickly entering this market. Just like diversified foreign exchange reserves, it will be纳入进来 (incorporated) like diversified asset reserves.
(Crypto assets) will change from a single reserve asset or trading asset to a diversified trading asset. In the past I could add commodities, add exchange rates, add interest rates, today I can add crypto assets. But remember one thing, when it fuses, the market logic will宣告 (declare) the arrival of the new era, and no longer the habits of the old era. Of course, we say after the (19)80s, the散户化比重 (proportion of retail participation) in the US stock market also gradually declined, that is, the proportion of retail directly participating in the market gradually declined, the proportion of financial institutions participating in the market gradually rose. This will also happen in any market.
The必经的这个阶段 (necessary stage) from early stage to maturity stage, is it now? My answer is yes. Stablecoins have切分了出去 (carved out/split off) the payment function of blockchain technology. So you can think about what Bitcoin actually is. Just now a reporter asked me if it is a digital gold, I said this statement is actually a bit controversial, why?
Because this depends on the person. For example, for me, I might immediately get what you want to say. But if you say this to an ordinary investor, his first reaction in his mind is gold. So what exactly is gold? We can only say this definition is called a tradable commodity asset with a value preservation function. This is a complete definition. We can say some assets have value preservation (function), but they don't necessarily possess the ability for large-scale financialization or tradability.
Let me give a simple example, for instance, my little son's AJ basketball shoes, do they have value? Regarding the understanding of value, many people will have a huge deviation. For example, the figurines you buy, do they have value? The Richard Mille watch you buy, does it have value? First, if it's a broad value, no problem, emotional value is also value, companionship value is also value. But whether it possesses large-scale financialization, tradability is not certain.
What about the old-timers (老登们 - informal term, roughly 'old folks' or 'OGs'), the wood in your hand, does it have value? Walnuts have value? Clivia flowers have value? Saying it has no value is not right, because if the definition is broad value, then saying it has no value is definitely not right. Saying it has value, if it's financialized and tradable, in other words also not right, because it doesn't have that. So a complete definition for any asset is very important here.
The standard definition for crypto assets is now very clear. The development of Western society, its core path is actually very clear. If the law doesn't prohibit it, you do it first, so it encourages innovation, it encourages you to explore. Just like our financial derivative products back then. Everyone said, my clients have needs for options, for swaps, but we don't have this market, no regulation, what to do? Do it first. After doing it, compliance catches up, layer by layer of nesting, letting it gradually mature. So the entire finance in the West is financial innovation, compliance catches up, finally enters maturity.
Crypto assets follow the same logic. Now what you need to judge is, has the financial regulation caught up in 2025, has the确定性答案 (definitive answer) come out? My answer is: Yes. So in the future you will see technology applied in payment is stablecoins. Then what will Bitcoin become? An asset with value preservation function, capable of being financialized and traded. This is its full meaning. Of course, I know this definition will definitely make the fundamentalists of the last era很不开心 (very unhappy).
But I want to tell you, this is the times, no way, this is a complete set of things that符合逻辑框架 (fits the logical framework). At this point, Wall Street can completely intervene. A new chapter is about to begin.
I don't know if my speech today will go down in history, of course I hope it will go down in history,引起大家的一些思考 (provoke some thought for everyone). I believe (today's speech) can also answer the question many people want to ask: Chief Fu, an old-timer (老登), doing FICC, why go into such a new industry? What I want to say is, you (crypto assets) have matured to the era where they can be纳入投资组合 (incorporated into investment portfolios).
Okay, I'll share到这里 (up to here) with everyone, thank you.
