Disgraced Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said Bitcoin could be entering a “supercycle” that breaks from its traditional four-year boom-and-bust pattern, even as it continues to lag behind a sharp rally in gold and silver that has pushed precious metals to record highs.
Zhao’s comments add to a growing chorus of crypto industry leaders who argue that rising institutional participation and a more supportive U.S. policy environment could fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s historical market behavior.
CZ Says Bitcoin Supercycle Incoming
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Friday, Zhao said Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year cycle — marked by steep rallies followed by deep corrections — may no longer apply.
“Historically, Bitcoin follows four-year cycles, where you see an all-time high and then a drop,” Zhao said.
“But this year, with the U.S. being very pro-crypto and other countries following, I do think we will break the four-year cycle.”
Asked whether he believed 2026 could be a bull market year, Zhao said external forces could be “strong enough to offset” the traditional rhythm.
His remarks echo similar views of a Bitcoin supercycle from prominent investors.
Bitmine’s Tom Lee said at Binance Blockchain Week that the four-year cycle was no longer a reliable framework for the market, while Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said last month that institutional inflows were likely to disrupt past patterns.
“We think the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” Wood said.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley also weighed in, writing on social media that the “four-year cycle is dead” and that the market structure had fundamentally changed.
Zhao Describes Prison Experience
Zhao, who served time following his guilty plea to violations related to U.S. banking regulations, also spoke publicly about his incarceration.
“It’s not fun. The movies are pretty accurate,” Zhao said.
“It’s not a good experience.”
He said he was surprised by the sentence, noting that, to his knowledge, no one in U.S. history had previously gone to jail for a single violation of the Bank Secrecy Act involving registration failures.
“Based on precedent, I didn’t expect this,” Zhao said.
Gold and Silver Outpace Bitcoin With Record Gains
While Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum, precious metals have surged amid currency weakness and rising investor demand for hard assets.
Gold futures climbed past $5,000 an ounce for the first time over the weekend, delivering their strongest weekly performance in years.
Silver has risen even faster, surging above $104 an ounce.
However, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief strategist at BCA Research, warned in a recent report that investors should not chase prices at current levels due to the risk of a pullback.
“In real terms, silver’s deviation from its 200-day moving average is nearing levels that previously preceded price pullbacks,” she said.
“Already, there are signs that demand-side adjustments to higher silver prices are taking place,” Ibrahim said.
Ibrahim pointed to changes in the solar manufacturing industry, where silver is a key input.
“In an effort to lower the cost of its solar modules, the fourth-largest solar cell manufacturer in the world, Longi, recently announced that it will start using base metals instead of silver in its solar cells,” she said.
She added that the move follows similar announcements by other Chinese solar manufacturers, including leading photovoltaic producers JinkoSolar and Shanghai Aiko Solar.
Despite near-term risks, Ibrahim said the broader backdrop remains supportive.
“The macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook provides a supportive backdrop for silver prices in the medium and long run,” she said.
