Bitcoin is finishing July in an atmosphere of heightened caution among market participants: the cryptocurrency remains under pressure due to the absence of new macroeconomic drivers and uncertainty surrounding industry regulation. In August, the asset could first test the $60–62k level, before returning to the $70k mark. This was stated to Izvestia on July 31st by financial analyst at Bitbanker, Andrey Poroshin.
According to the expert, the US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain a neutral rhetoric was not a strong signal for the market in either direction. Inflation in the country remains above the target level, so the regulator prefers to wait for new data and return to the issue of monetary policy at the September meeting.
"Bitcoin is finishing July under pressure from moderate volatility and a lack of new drivers from the macroeconomy. The US Fed gave the markets neither positive nor negative signals, so participants remain cautious," noted Poroshin.
Currently, bitcoin is trading below the cost of mining in the US — around $73–75k. This range remains an important benchmark for assessing the profitability of cryptocurrency mining on the global market. However, in certain countries, including Russia, mining costs may be lower.
The analyst named the bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, where retail investors actively traded futures, as one of the significant events in July. According to Poroshin, this represented the actual capitulation of some of the less resilient market participants.
"The exit of 'weak hands' traditionally coincides with the formation of reversal zones and a decrease in short-term price pressure," the expert explained.
In July, the activity of retail investors also decreased. Many traders are anticipating a possible decline in bitcoin to the $70k mark and below, placing stop orders in the $60–62k range. According to the analyst's assessment, a significant volume of liquidity is currently concentrated in this very zone, which the market may test in August.
Meanwhile, geopolitical factors, which previously could significantly influence cryptocurrencies, are gradually losing their impact. The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, according to Poroshin, no longer exerts noticeable pressure on the market — participants have adapted to the current level of uncertainty.
An additional factor remains the situation with cryptocurrency industry regulation in the US. The country's Senate did not manage to bring the CLARITY Act bill to a vote, which has been postponed to September. This maintains uncertainty for market participants.
August is typically characterized by reduced trading activity due to the seasonal vacation period for traders and fund managers. Under such conditions, market movements are often of a technical nature and can develop without sharp impulses.
According to the analyst's base scenario, in August bitcoin could first test the $60–62k range to absorb accumulated liquidity, after which it would recover to the $70k level. Stronger movements are more likely in September — after new signals from the US Fed and the possible return to discussion of the CLARITY Act.
Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov reported on June 16th that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be able to legally buy bitcoin, ether, and popular stablecoins. Furthermore, the deputy minister clarified that a limit of 300,000 rubles per year through one intermediary has been proposed for "non-qualified" investors.
end-content
