The West Asia crisis resulted in surging oil prices and fears of growing inflation. This meant that institutional traders were hedging against further downside, evident in the increased demand for puts (bearish bets).
Further downside was possible. Short-term holders were intent on protecting their profits or trying to exit the market at a breakeven, capping the potential of any rally.
Yet, the higher timeframe price action was at an interesting place where a price bounce could not be ruled out completely.
Explaining Bitcoin’s trend expectations
The swing moves on the 3-day timeframe were captured in white. The latest bounce amid the downtrend came in February and was incomplete. There’s a reason why it is considered incomplete.
In October 2025, when the swing structure was bullish, Bitcoin made a double top at $124.4k. This inability to continue the uptrend was an early warning sign of weakness from the bulls.
Subsequently, the swing structure shifted bearishly after the $107.2k low was breached in early November.
Consider the price action since February. The $60k swing low resulted in a bounce that has not climbed above the 50% retracement level.
Many analysts consider the area above the 50% retracement as “premium,” and a move into this area is more likely to result in the next bearish swing move.
The threshold was at $78.9k, and the latest bounce only reached $76k. After this bounce, Bitcoin has not yet climbed below the $60k swing low.
Expectations for Bitcoin’s next move
Like the double top in October 2025, Bitcoin’s inability to set new lows in recent weeks was an intriguing development. Consider the $65.9k and $62.9k levels (dotted cyan).
The H4 timeframe’s swing structure was bullish, but the price was resting near the $65.9k swing lows. A session close below $65,618 is needed to flip the H4 expectations bearishly.
Similarly, a 3-day session closing below $60k is needed to show that the long-term downtrend will continue.
Until this happens, expecting a Bitcoin price bounce into the premium value area above $78.9k is valid. As things stand, the market is waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move.
Final Summary
- The 3-day and 4-hour timeframe price charts of Bitcoin yielded some counterintuitive bullish expectations around the lower timeframe structure.
- The importance of the swing low at $65.9k and its defense over the past week means that bears weren’t fully in control of the short-term trend.
