Bitcoin New Whale Loss-Taking Fades: End Of Capitulation?

bitcoinistPublished on 2025-12-25Last updated on 2025-12-25

Abstract

Recent on-chain data indicates that loss-taking by new Bitcoin whales (holders of over 1,000 BTC acquired within the last 155 days) has flattened, suggesting a potential pause in their capitulation. These whales were primarily responsible for significant realized losses during Bitcoin's decline from $124,000 to $84,000, with one spike exceeding $600 million. However, as BTC's price stabilized recently, the Realized Profit/Loss metric for both new and old whales has returned to neutral levels, meaning they are now transacting near their cost basis. While it's unclear if whale capitulation has fully ended, their selling pressure has currently subsided. Bitcoin, which briefly surpassed $90,000 this week, has since retreated to around $87,000.

On-chain data shows newbie Bitcoin whales have seen their loss-taking flatten recently, a potential sign that their capitulation has paused.

Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Returned To Neutral Recently

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has talked about how the behavior of the Bitcoin whales has changed recently. “Whales” refer to the BTC investors who are carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency in their wallet balance.

At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort converts to $86.7 million, which is quite significant. The large size of their holdings can make these investors carry some degree of influence in the market.

As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. There are many ways to track whale behavior, with one such being through the Realized Profit/Loss indicator.

This metric measures, as its name implies, the net amount of profit or loss that the members of the group as a whole are realizing through their transactions. A positive value indicates profit-taking is dominant, while a negative one suggests realized losses outweigh profits.

Whales can be divided into two subgroups, called the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales and long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. The former group includes the whale investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, while the latter is made up of the whales who have been holding for longer than this period.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss for New and Old Whales over the last few months:

The value of the metric appears to have been neutral for both cohorts in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss has mostly been inside the loss territory for the whales since the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed a bearish shift in October.

New Whales in particular have been responsible for the majority of the loss realization, with one loss-taking spike even crossing the $600 million mark. “Realized losses from new whales significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K,” noted the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that loss realization from these humongous Bitcoin investors has seen a decline recently as BTC’s bearish momentum has subsided and its price has settled into a phase of consolidation.

During the past week, the Realized Profit/Loss has even minimized to a neutral level for both New and Old Whales, implying the largest of hands in the market have only been shifting coins close to cost basis.

Whether this suggests that the phase of whale capitulation is over only remains to be seen, but for now, these investors have indeed hit the pause button.

BTC Price

Bitcoin started the week with a recovery surge above $90,000, but the asset has quickly gone downhill as it’s back at $87,000.

Looks like the price of the coin has gone down recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Related Questions

QWhat does the recent flattening of loss-taking by new Bitcoin whales suggest according to the on-chain data?

AIt suggests that the capitulation of new Bitcoin whales may have paused, as their loss-taking has returned to a neutral level recently.

QHow is the Realized Profit/Loss indicator defined and what does it measure for Bitcoin whales?

AThe Realized Profit/Loss indicator measures the net amount of profit or loss that Bitcoin whales realize through their transactions, with positive values indicating profit-taking dominance and negative values indicating realized losses outweighing profits.

QWhat distinguishes 'New Whales' from 'Old Whales' in the context of this analysis?

ANew Whales are Bitcoin investors holding over 1,000 BTC who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, while Old Whales are those holding for longer than this period.

QHow did the loss-taking by new whales impact Bitcoin's price movement from $124K to $84K?

ARealized losses from new whales significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K, with one loss-taking spike exceeding $600 million.

QWhat is the current price trend of Bitcoin as mentioned in the article?

ABitcoin started the week with a recovery above $90,000 but quickly declined back to $87,000, indicating recent downward pressure.

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