Bitcoin MACD Drops To Bearish Level Not Seen Since 2022 — Crypto Winter Incoming?

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-03-09Last updated on 2026-03-09

Abstract

The price of Bitcoin has been struggling to maintain upward momentum, recently failing to break the $74,000 resistance. Technical analyst Tony Severino warns that Bitcoin's two-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to a bearish level not seen since the 2022 Terra (LUNA) collapse. The expanding histogram bars signal strong bearish momentum, suggesting a potential repeat of the 2022 crypto winter, during which Bitcoin fell around 40%. However, as a lagging indicator, the MACD may have already priced in current conditions. Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,520 with little change over the past day.

The price of Bitcoin has struggled to muster a sustained upward climb over the last few weeks, with the latest one failing around the $74,000 mark in the past week. However, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have deeper problems than failed price recovery attempts. According to a crypto market expert, the Bitcoin price is at a stage reminiscent of the bearish period of 2022.

Is BTC About To Witness A Repeat Of 2022?

In a March 8 post on the X platform, Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared an interesting insight into the current situation of the Bitcoin market. The crypto pundit hypothesized that the world’s largest cryptocurrency might have to endure a bearish period associated with the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem crash in 2022.

The rationale behind this evaluation is the steady decline in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on BTC’s two-week price chart. MACD is a prominent momentum indicator used in technical analysis to identify trend direction, momentum changes, and potential entry and exit positions.

Typically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has two lines: the MACD line (green) and the signal line (red), and a histogram, which reflects the distance between the two aforementioned lines. The histogram, which is the primary momentum indicator, is currently signaling a strong bearish momentum.

This observation is because the histogram bars are expanding, signaling rising momentum in the current direction (which is bearish because the bars are below the neutral or zero line). According to Severino, the MACD indicator is even expanding to levels not seen since 2022, when the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse sent bearish shockwaves through the entire crypto market.

2W Bitcoin LMACD momentum is around the same point before the Luna collapse in 2022

It’s possible something nasty is coming

How are you managing your risk? And do you even know how? pic.twitter.com/SFzsYJxiZc

— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) March 8, 2026

Source: @TonySeverinoCMT on X

The crypto market analyst said, “it is possible that something nasty is coming,” suggesting that another crypto winter might be imminent. After Terra’s collapse in May, the premier cryptocurrency would have fallen from above $50,000 to around $30,000 — about a 40% decline — by July 2022.

However, it is important to note that the market might have already priced in what is currently being seen in the MACD indicator, which is often considered a lagging indicator. Moreover, Bitcoin has already lost nearly 30% of its value so far in 2026.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

At the time of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,520, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

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