[Key interpretation] The strong earthquake of AXS 232% prompted the main force to protect the market, and the long-term investors of BTC sold again

JinsPublished on 2022-11-17Last updated on 2022-11-18

Abstract

In the process of BTC bottoming, wait for the price to stabilize.

1. BTC rebound pressure is high

The short-term trend of BTC price is very weak, and the rebound strength is not high during the relative contraction of trading volume. Judging from this, the selling pressure generated during the rapid price drop on November 8 and 9 in the previous period was relatively large, which still limited the price increase. In addition, the volume effect of these two trading days is the highest in history. The 24-hour peak volume on November 8 and 9 reached more than twice the average volume in the recent three months. As a result, more investors' cost of holding coins fell within the range of 15588 to 20600 dollars. It is necessary to break through this price range. At present, the trading volume is shrinking and the rebound is more difficult.

2. Increase in turnover of BTC long-term investors

From the performance of the number of destroyed currency days, the number of destroyed currency days on November 16 rebounded again, reaching a high of 35.27 million. According to this judgment, there is still room for a rebound in the turnover rate of long-term investors in the near future, and the cumulative BTC turnover rate is rising. Long term investors change hands with BTC, which means that their currency holdings are still in an obvious loose state, which is unfavorable for BTC's short-term stability. At present, BTC is at the bottom of the horizontal market. Although it has the cost advantage of low absorption, it is unlikely to make profits after buying in the near future.

3. ETH price performance is low

After the fall of ETH's early classification, the recent trading volume is still in a shrinking state, and the volume and price performance are sluggish, which means that there is little room for ETH to achieve growth in the near future. On November 10, the ETH price reached a minimum of $1073. Therefore, after the technical rebound, ETH may retest the support effect of this point. US $1106 is also the support level for 78.6% of Fibonacci, so investors should pay special attention to trading signals.

4. AXS rebounds strongly

Recently, the price shock of AXS has increased significantly. On November 13, the price fluctuation amplitude of AXS reached 232%, and the highest price hit $19.12. If we calculate from the closing price of $6.52 on November 12, AXS's short-term increase is as high as 293%. Judging from this, AXS's market performance is exceptionally strong, but the profitability of short-term trading is unlikely. As AXS's short-term rise was completed during the period of rising and falling, the main rise and fall process lasted only one hour. From the perspective of the main force holding money, it may be a means for the main force to save itself.

5. AXS's main currency holding rebounded and fell back

From the perspective of the number of coins held by AXS, the top 10 coins held have a large fluctuation space. As early as October 23 to October 25, the proportion of AXS held by the top 10 major holders of coins rose from 96.5% to 97.24%, and the number of coins held could be 0.74 percentage points higher. Next, AXS's currency holding has little room for fluctuation. On November 12, 96.91% of AXS held by the top 10 players of AXS was higher than that on October 23. According to this judgment, 232% of the AXS strong earthquake on November 13 may be caused by the main trading. After all, AXS's closing price on November 12 contracted by more than 40% from the previous high.

Similar short-term self-help actions of the main players will occur, but in the process of confirming the bottom of the mainstream currency recently, the rebound expectation is not high, so pay attention to the risk of catching up.

Related Reads

Deep Insight: Decentralized Inference is Not Hype, but a Key Track for AI to Break Through Centralized Monopoly

Decentralized Reasoning: Beyond the Hype, a Key to Breaking AI's Centralized Monopoly A future scenario where a powerful AI model is banned by a major government illustrates the core value proposition of decentralized AI: resistance to censorship. The core bet of decentralized inference networks is mitigating this risk, with other benefits like cost being secondary. The path is extremely difficult, involving four key challenges: 1. **Running Massive Models:** Distributing a single model across a decentralized GPU swarm requires sophisticated techniques like pipeline and speculative decoding to overcome crippling network latency, aiming for usable speeds (e.g., 30-40 tokens/second). 2. **Proving Model Integrity:** Verifying that a node runs the correct model is critical. Solutions range from cryptographically secure but slow ZKML to faster, economically-secure methods like statistical fingerprints, deterministic re-execution, or live-weight proofs, each involving trade-offs between integrity, latency, and cost. 3. **Ensuring Prompt Privacy:** Simply sharding a model does not protect user inputs from nodes. Robust solutions currently require trusted hardware (TEEs) or advanced cryptography (FHE), which are not yet widely deployed in consumer swarms. 4. **Building a Real Market:** Identifying the ideal customer is tough. Beyond speculative AI agents, the viable market currently consists of startups embedding AI and projects needing batch processing (e.g., synthetic data generation), where decentralized aggregation can be an advantage over low-latency needs. The article analyzes several projects tackling these problems, such as Dolphin Network (live-weight proofs), Inference.net (statistical verification), Morpheus (TEE-based), and Darkbloom (Apple Secure Enclave). It provides a framework: decentralization is a "tax" for latency-sensitive applications (e.g., chat) but a potential supply-side advantage for throughput-oriented tasks (e.g., batch processing). The long-term vision is a closed data loop where decentralized inference generates valuable data (traces, preferences) to feed decentralized training networks, which in turn produce better open-weight models for the inference networks. A due diligence checklist advises focusing on projects that: are truly decentralized at specific layers; have a credible integrity method; offer real cost benefits; ensure genuine privacy; handle node reliability; have paying users; and are built by teams with deep AI expertise. The ultimate goal should be products that appeal beyond the crypto-native audience, using crypto mechanisms invisibly to deliver better cost, performance, or privacy.

Foresight News5m ago

Deep Insight: Decentralized Inference is Not Hype, but a Key Track for AI to Break Through Centralized Monopoly

Foresight News5m ago

The Final Piece of Franklin Templeton's Crypto Ambition

Franklin Templeton Completes Crypto Ambition with Acquisition of 250 Digital On June 22, Franklin Templeton announced the acquisition of 250 Digital and established Franklin Crypto, a new division focused on actively managed cryptocurrency strategies for institutional investors. The unit is led by Christopher Perkins and Seth Ginns. This acquisition marks a key piece in Franklin Templeton's multi-year crypto strategy, which began in 2018 with a digital assets team. The firm's crypto product suite now spans three layers: tokenized funds like the blockchain-based money market fund BENJI (~$831M AUM); a series of passive ETFs including Bitcoin (EZBC, ~$368M), Ethereum (EZET), XRP (XRPZ, ~$252M), Solana (SOEZ), and a multi-crypto index fund (EZPZ); and the newly added active management strategies from Franklin Crypto. The company has also expanded its crypto ecosystem through investments in projects like Ethena and Crossmint, and collaborations with blockchains such as Aptos and Sui. With approximately $18B in digital asset AUM and a total firm AUM of ~$1.78T, Franklin Templeton is positioning itself as a comprehensive crypto asset manager for pensions and sovereign wealth funds. In contrast, competitor Fidelity Investments has taken a different path, focusing early on building its own custody and trading infrastructure. Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) holds over $11B, significantly larger than Franklin Templeton's equivalent offering. Both giants' moves underscore the deepening trend of traditional finance entering the crypto space.

Foresight News29m ago

The Final Piece of Franklin Templeton's Crypto Ambition

Foresight News29m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片