$65K in play? Fidelity sounds alarm on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-10Last updated on 2026-01-10

Abstract

Bitcoin's 2026 price outlook is divided among major asset managers. Bullish firms like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase predict a strong rebound and a potential new all-time high of $150k, suggesting the typical 4-year cycle may have ended and that Bitcoin could move in sync with U.S. equities without a pronounced bear market. However, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer expresses skepticism, warning that bear markets are still possible. He identifies $65k as a key level to watch, with $45k as further support, based on proprietary models like the Bitcoin Power Law. CryptoQuant supports a bearish view, noting Bitcoin fell below its 1-year Moving Average in November 2025. Founder Ki Young Ju highlights slowing Realized Cap growth—a pattern observed in previous bear markets—as a sign of weakening capital inflows. VanEck counters, arguing the cycle hasn’t peaked yet, citing the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator below the 0.70 level that typically signals market tops. In summary, Fidelity and CryptoQuant caution about a potential downturn to $65k or lower, while VanEck and others remain optimistic for new highs in 2026.

Bitcoin is continuing to flash mixed signals, splitting even key asset managers and big players on 2026’s price outlook.

In the bullish camp, VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase are hopeful for a strong rebound in 2026 and a potential new all-time high of $150k. In fact, Bitwise and VanEck believe the 4-year cycle has ended after Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, defying its past market patterns.

In return, the sector will be in lock-step with U.S equities and could push BTC higher. As a result, there might be no typical “bear market,” or it may be less pronounced.

However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, disagrees with these calls. In a recent statement, he retorted,

“I’m skeptical of the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen. For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k.”

According to Timmer, if BTC consolidates for a year, then the $65k-level could be tagged. In doing so, he cited the Bitcoin Power Law and other proprietary models. Most bears have been eyeing $65k-$75k zone as a potential rebound for the next 2027-2028 cycle.

Bitcoin’s capital inflows wane

For CryptoQuant, BTC entered a bear market in early November after falling below the 1-year Moving Average.

Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s founder, also reinforced a similar bearish position. However, he cited slowing capital growth momentum at the network level, as tracked by the Realized Cap indicator.

A slowed down or a downtrend in Realized Cap marked previous BTC bear markets in 2018-2020 and 2022-2023. On the other hand, growth in capital inflows, green, coincided with bull runs.

In November 2025, the Realized Cap flagged the bear market risk for the first time since 2023. If Realized Cap stagnation or a downtrend extends itself, it would reinforce past market distress trends.

If so, this would also dent the 2026 bullish outlook by some of the big players.

No market cycle top yet?

For VanEck, however, the current market cycle has not peaked yet and a new record high might still be on the cards in 2026.

According to VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, the market has not topped out for this cycle. He cited the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), a key cycle top indicator, for being below 0.70 (A level that flagged past market tops).

The exec claimed that there may be room for an upside rally because the press time RUP reading of 0.43 meant the tactical cycle top was not imminent. Despite BTC surging to $126k last year.

Final Thoughts

  • Fidelity believes BTC’s bear market is still on the cards and a dip to $65k or below might be likely
  • Realized Cap flagged a bear market risk for the first time since 2023.

Related Questions

QWhat is the key price level that Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer identifies as the 'line in the sand' for Bitcoin?

AJurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, identifies $65k (the previous high) as the key 'line in the sand' for Bitcoin, with $45k being the level below that.

QWhich firms are mentioned as being in the bullish camp for Bitcoin's 2026 price outlook?

AThe bullish camp for Bitcoin's 2026 outlook includes VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase, who are hopeful for a strong rebound and a potential new all-time high of $150k.

QAccording to CryptoQuant's founder, what on-chain indicator signaled a slowdown in capital growth momentum and bear market risk?

AKi Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s founder, cited the Realized Cap indicator, which tracks capital growth momentum at the network level. A slowdown or downtrend in this indicator signaled a bear market risk.

QWhat metric does VanEck's Matthew Sigel use to argue that the current market cycle has not yet peaked?

AMatthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, uses the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) metric. He argues that since the RUP reading was 0.43 (below the 0.70 level that flagged past market tops), the cycle top is not imminent.

QWhat event, according to Bitwise and VanEck, signifies that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle has ended?

ABitwise and VanEck believe the 4-year cycle has ended because Bitcoin closed the year 2025 in the red, which defied its past market patterns.

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