This week, Bitcoin's daily-level C-wave rebound continues. The price started from the low of $62,268. Whether it can effectively break through the key resistance zone of $65,700~$67,300 is the core validation of the structure this week. HYPE has found support at the confluence area of the long-term ascending trendline, the lower boundary of the descending channel, and the triple support zone of $50~$52. Daily-level bounce signals have initially emerged, but whether it can stabilize and challenge the upper boundary of the descending channel remains to be confirmed. The following is this week's multi-cycle structure review, trading strategies for BTC and HYPE, as well as market validation of last week's short-term trades for reference.
Summary of core trading views this week:
- BTC Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis (Details in Part 1)
- BTC Weekly Market Outlook and Medium/Short-Term Trading Strategies (Details in Part 2)
- HYPE Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis (Details in Part 3)
- HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategies (Details in Part 4)
Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:
- BTC Market Judgment Validation: Last week's article emphasized that the probability of the daily short-term (B-wave) correction completing and terminating above the $60,900-$61,500 area was significant. Looking now, the actual market movement closely aligns with our prediction.
- BTC Short-Term Trade Effectiveness: Bitcoin completed one short-term long trade (1x leverage) last week, successfully realizing a profit of approximately 2.28%. (Details in Part 5)
- HYPE Market Judgment Validation: Last week, we judged that the probability of price stabilizing and stopping its decline in the $50~$52 area was high. The current actual price action has effectively validated this view.
1. Bitcoin Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis
1、Bitcoin Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis: (Based on analysis of market action after May 6th)
Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart
1. As shown in (Figure 1): The corrective market initiated from the May 6th high of $82,850 has already presented a six-segment corrective structure on the daily chart, consisting of segments (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4), (4-5), and (5-6).
2. Analysis from Daily Structure Perspective: (From the July 1st low rebound to present)
- A-wave rebound: (July 1st - July 21st) Starting from $57,820, lasting 21 trading days, reaching a high of $66,955, with a range increase of 15.8%.
- B-wave adjustment: (July 21st - August 1st) Declining from $66,955 to $62,268, lasting 11 trading days, with a maximum retracement of 7%.
- C-wave rebound: (August 1st - present) Starting from $62,268 to now, it has run for 8 trading days as of the current moment.
3. Based on independent quantitative model analysis: The daily B-wave adjustment concluded at $62,268, and the C-wave rebound officially commenced. The primary target for this segment is the $67,300 resistance zone. If an effective breakthrough is achieved, the next target will be the $69,500~$71,000 area.
2、In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin Hourly Level Trend Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)
Figure 2 Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart
1. The daily B-wave adjustment from $66,955 to $62,268 can be clearly decomposed into five segments from (51-52) to (55-56) on the 4-hour chart. Among them, segments (52-53), (53-54), and (54-55) have overlapping relationships, thus constituting Central F.
2. The daily C-wave rebound starting from $62,268 is mapped as the (56-57) upward segment on the 4-hour level. As of now, it has run for 49 (4-hour) cycles, with the rebound high touching around $65,474. Measured from time and space dimensions, the structure remains intact, with strong rebound momentum.
2. Bitcoin Weekly Market Outlook and Trading Strategies
1. BTC Weekly Market Trend Forecast: Core View This Week: Closely monitor the battle between bulls and bears as the daily C-wave rebound reaches the $65,700-$67,300 area.
2. Core Resistance Levels:
- First Resistance Area: $67,300 area (previous important resistance zone)
- Second Resistance Area: $69,500~$71,000 area (previous important resistance zone)
3. Core Support Levels:
- First Support Level: $63,600~$64,000 area (previous important support level)
- Second Support Level: $60,950~$61,500 area (previous important support level)
- Third Support Level: Around $57,820 (previous important support level)
4. Weekly Trading Strategies (Excluding Sudden News Impact)
1. Medium-Term Strategy:
Figure 3 Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming the market structure has shifted to a bear-dominated pattern.
- According to last week's trading plan: "If the price effectively stabilizes above $63,600 and initiates a sustained rebound, reduce medium-term short positions to within 20% at that time." Therefore, current positions have been reduced to within 20% as per the plan requirements.
- If this week the price effectively breaks through the $67,300 resistance level, rises to the $69,500~$71,000 area and shows clear signs of upward exhaustion, combined with quantitative model signals, medium-term short positions will be increased to around 50%.
2. Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and look for opportunities to "capture price differences" based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operational cycle).
3. In short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have pre-formulated two specific operational plans, A and B.
Plan A: Tentative Short Selling at Strong Resistance Zone
- Entry: If this week the price rebounds, effectively breaks through the $67,300 resistance level, rises to the $69,500~$71,000 area and shows clear signs of upward exhaustion, combined with quantitative model signals, a short position of around 30% can be established.
- Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss point.
- Exit: When the adjustment approaches important support levels and combines with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.
Plan B: Light Long Position Testing at Strong Support Zone
- Entry: If the price surges and then falls back, when the adjustment reaches the $63,600~$64,000 area and shows signs of stabilizing and stopping its decline, combined with quantitative model bottom signals, a long position of around 15% can be established.
- Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss point.
- Exit: When the rebound approaches important resistance levels and combines with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.
3. HYPE Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis
Figure 4 HYPE Daily Candlestick Chart
1. Daily structure shows: HYPE's decline initiated from the June 16th high of $76.94 is currently operating within a clear descending channel (blue): The upper boundary connects the two highs on June 16th and July 7th, while the lower boundary runs parallel to the upper boundary, extending through the June 25th low.
2. Since initiating the daily uptrend on January 21st, HYPE has constructed a long-term ascending trendline (white) on the daily level, connecting the January 21st low (validated on February 24th) and the May 14th low.
3. As shown in (Figure 4): The price retraced to the triple technical support confluence area on August 2nd: the long-term ascending trendline, the descending channel lower boundary, and the key $50~$52 support zone. The resonance of triple support significantly increases the probability of a daily-level bounce forming at this point.
4. HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategies
1. HYPE Weekly Market Trend Forecast:
1. Core Resistance Levels:
- First Resistance Level: $58.5~$60 area
- Second Resistance Level: Near the descending channel upper boundary
- Third Resistance Level: Around $72.97
2. Core Support Levels:
- First Support Level: $50~$52 area
- Second Support Level: Around $45
Core View This Week: Focus on tracking the outcome of the bull-bear battle when the price rebounds near the descending channel upper boundary. Whether this level can be effectively broken through will directly define the nature of this upward move: a technical rebound or a trend reversal.
2. HYPE Weekly Short-Term Trading Strategies:
Weekly Short-Term Operations:
1. For those holding long positions: If investors established long positions in the $50~$52 area according to last week's trading plan, set a stop-loss point and strictly adhere to it, hold and wait for gains.
2. For those with no position: If the price retests the $50~$52 area at the beginning of the week and shows signs of stabilizing and stopping its decline, consider a light long position test. Strict stop-loss discipline is required.
5. Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Review
We strictly followed the operational plan and, based on trading signals issued by our independently constructed "Price Difference Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," completed one short-term (long) trade last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 2.28%.
1. Short-Term Trade Record: (See Table 1)
Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)
Entry Strategy:
- a. When the price declined above $62,000 and showed signs of stabilizing and stopping its decline, the candlestick formed a "bottom divergence" pattern.
- b. The "Price Difference Trading Model" triggered a bottom warning signal (red dot), subsequently the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart broke above the horizon line (purple-red), issuing a buy signal; simultaneously superimposed with the "Momentum Quantitative Model" bottom signal resonance. Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $62,753.
Exit Strategy:
- a. When the price rose to around $65,000 and showed signs of upward exhaustion, the candlestick formed a "top divergence" pattern.
- b. The "Price Difference Trading Model" continuously triggered top warning signals (white dots), subsequently the signal band (blue) in the chart broke below the skyline (green), forming a top resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model." Therefore, we closed the entire position around $64,183.
- Summary: This trade successfully profited approximately 2.28%.
6. Special Notes:
- When entering a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss point.
- When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss point to the entry cost price (break-even point), ensuring capital safety.
- When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss point to the 1% profit position.
- Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the price makes, move the stop-loss point up by 1% as well, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
Financial markets are ever-changing, all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies involved in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are solely for personal trading log purposes. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks, investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this.
