4 years of Bitcoin winning – Here’s why 2021 was the last alt season!

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-03Last updated on 2026-01-03

Abstract

The 2025 market cycle marked a significant divergence from historical trends, with Bitcoin (BTC) closing the year down 6% despite its typical post-halving rallies. Altcoins, represented by TOTAL3 (market cap excluding BTC and ETH), saw their fourth consecutive annual decline against Bitcoin, signaling the end of a fading "altcoin season." Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) surged from 40% in 2022 to over 60% in 2025, capturing nearly 80% of the new capital in the crypto market's growth to $1.11 trillion. In contrast, the 2021 cycle was a classic altseason, where TOTAL3 soared 541% compared to BTC's 64% gain. The current altcoin market is plagued by spiked funding rates and overcrowded leveraged longs, making it highly volatile and susceptible to liquidations. With Bitcoin's growing influence and capital funneling into BTC, 2021 likely marked the last true altcoin season.

The 2025 cycle has introduced some notable market divergences.

Historically, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen strong rallies after each halving, with the first four post-halving cycles driven by supply scarcity and demand imbalance. However, 2025 broke that trend, with BTC closing the year down 6%.

A similar divergence is showing up in altcoins. TOTAL3 (market cap ex- BTC and ETH) has printed its fourth straight red year versus Bitcoin, effectively capping an “altcoin season” that’s been fading for four years.

That divergence naturally points towards BTC’s growing market influence.

Technically, this isn’t a stretch. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has put in four consecutive uptrends, climbing from roughly 40% in 2022 to above 60% in 2025. That’s a solid 100% gain in market cap, roughly $900 billion added.

Notably, over the same period, total market cap grew to $1.11 trillion, meaning nearly 80% of that new capital landed in BTC, highlighting its growing influence. In this context, is an altseason really a thing of the past?

The 2021 rally in retrospect – Key altcoin market signals

Looking back, the 2021 cycle was a textbook altcoin season.

On the 12-month chart, BTC’s market cap closed the year up 64%, breaking through the historic $1 trillion-milestone. And yet, TOTAL3 (market cap ex-BTC and ETH) completely outpaced it, rallying a staggering 541%.

The result? The Altcoin Season Index peaked, signaling a full-blown altseason, with capital clearly rotating into the broader alt market. Since then, however, BTC has taken control. The question is – What really changed?

The answer is simple – Altcoin funding rates have spiked.

Simply out, leveraged longs are overcrowded, and while that might sound bullish, it’s actually trapped altcoins in a volatile loop. Even a small sideways move can trigger a cascade of liquidations.

Add rising BTC.D, and alts have become highly vulnerable to sharp swings. In this context, the growing divergence between Bitcoin and alts isn’t a fluke. Instead, it shows why 2021 was probably the last real “altcoin season.”

Final Thoughts

  • Altcoin funding rates have spiked, creating overcrowded longs that trap altcoins in a volatile loop.
  • Rising Bitcoin dominance has funneled capital towards BTC, making alts vulnerable and explaining why 2021 was likely the last true “altcoin season.”

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Related Questions

QWhat is the main trend observed in the Bitcoin market during the 2025 cycle according to the article?

AThe 2025 cycle broke the historical trend, with Bitcoin closing the year down 6%, marking a notable divergence from its typical post-halving rallies.

QWhat does the four-year consecutive decline in TOTAL3 versus Bitcoin indicate?

AIt indicates that the 'altcoin season' has been fading for four years, with capital increasingly flowing away from altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) and towards Bitcoin.

QHow much did Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) increase from 2022 to 2025?

ABitcoin dominance climbed from roughly 40% in 2022 to above 60% in 2025, representing a solid 100% gain in market cap and adding approximately $900 billion.

QWhy does the article suggest that the 2021 rally was a textbook altcoin season?

ABecause in 2021, while BTC's market cap grew 64%, the TOTAL3 market cap (ex-BTC and ETH) vastly outperformed it with a staggering 541% rally, and the Altcoin Season Index peaked, signaling a full-blown altseason.

QWhat key factor does the article identify as trapping altcoins in a volatile loop and making them vulnerable?

ASpiked altcoin funding rates have created overcrowded leveraged longs, making altcoins highly vulnerable to sharp swings and liquidation cascades, especially with rising Bitcoin dominance funneling capital away from them.

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