Opsi Bitcoin senilai $23,7 miliar akan segera berakhir – Mengapa trader mengharapkan gejolak

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-25Last updated on 2025-12-25

Abstract

Kontrak opsi Bitcoin senilai $23,7 miliar akan kedaluwarsa pada 26 Desember, terbesar sepanjang tahun. Analis memperkirakan volatilitas signifikan (5%-7%) akibat likuiditas menipis dan penutupan posisi menjelang liburan. Titik Max Pain berada di $95.000, dengan konsentrasi strike di $100.000 dan $85.000. Para analis sepakat Bitcoin mungkin turun dulu ke $82.000-$84.000 sebelum rally menuju $95.000, dengan $100.000 sebagai target magnetik. Namun, QCP Capital memperingatkan bahwa kenaikan liburan cenderung tidak berkelanjutan dan dapat mean-revert begitu likuiditas kembali di Januari. Volatilitas tambahan juga dipicu oleh tax-loss harvesting sebelum tenggat tahun baru.

Bitcoin telah diperdagangkan dalam kisaran $85k-$92k sepanjang Desember. Ekspirasi opsi pada Jumat, 26 Desember, kemungkinan akan mengacaukan keadaan.

QCP Capital mencatat dalam pembaruan pasar US Colour terbaru mereka bahwa likuiditas menipis saat trader menutup posisi mereka menjelang liburan.

Hal ini menyebabkan penurunan Open Interest untuk Bitcoin dan Ethereum [ETH]. Perubahan harga 5%-7% di akhir tahun diperkirakan terjadi karena ekspirasi opsi menuju akhir tahun.

Ekspirasi rekor pada Jumat diukur sebesar $23,7 miliar, dengan sekitar 300 ribu kontrak opsi BTC dan 446 ribu kontrak opsi IBIT.

Titik Max Pain berada di $95.000, dengan konsentrasi strike yang cukup besar di $100k dan $85k juga. Bagaimana ini akan mempengaruhi aksi harga Bitcoin [BTC]?

Analis sepakat bahwa Bitcoin kemungkinan akan segera memantul

Dalam sebuah postingan di X, Pendiri dan CEO Alphractal Joao Wedson menyoroti titik-titik minat seputar Bitcoin saat ini. Rasio Put/Call hanya 0,38, dan Titik Max Pain menciptakan gravitasi harga jangka pendek yang kuat yang akan menarik harga ke $95k.

Dalam postingan lain, Wedson menggunakan tingkat likuidasi untuk menyoroti ekspektasinya.

Posisi leverage di sekitar $84k dan $95k terlihat jelas pada peta panas dan merupakan target harga jangka pendek. BTC kemungkinan akan turun ke $82k-$84k sebelum rally ke $95k dan mungkin lebih tinggi.

Pengguna lain, David, menyoroti ekspektasi serupa. Analis tersebut mengamati bahwa level $90k adalah plafon palsu, dan level $100k adalah magnet struktural. Yang menarik perhatian khusus adalah level-level yang disebutkan untuk flush awal, di $80k-$82k.

Pergerakan ke $90k akan menjadi pemicu breakout.

QCP Capital mencatat bahwa rally ini mungkin tidak berkelanjutan.

"...pergerakan yang didorong liburan secara historis cenderung mean-revert. Mirip dengan lonjakan likuiditas rendah di akhir pekan yang sering kali ditarik kembali begitu pasar dibuka kembali, aksi harga minggu Natal biasanya memudar ketika likuiditas kembali pada Januari."

Aksi harga liburan mungkin akan sangat volatil karena buku yang tipis menghadapi panen rugi pajak dari investor kripto menjelang batas waktu 31 Desember. Kondisi ini dapat memperkuat volatilitas jangka pendek alih-alih menekannya.

Pemikiran Akhir

  • Ekspirasi opsi pada Jumat adalah yang terbesar tahun ini (triwulanan + tahunan), setara dengan $23,7 miliar.
  • Analis menyarankan bahwa penurunan BTC ke $82k-$84k dapat diikuti oleh rally menuju titik max pain di $95k saat ekspirasi opsi.

Related Questions

QApa yang menyebabkan likuiditas menipis di pasar Bitcoin menjelang akhir tahun?

ALikuiditas menipis karena para trader menutup posisi mereka sebelum liburan, seperti yang dicatat oleh QCP Capital dalam pembaruan pasar terbaru mereka.

QBerapa nilai total kedaluwarsa opsi Bitcoin yang akan terjadi pada hari Jumat, 26 Desember?

ANilai total kedaluwarsa opsi Bitcoin pada hari Jumat adalah $23,7 miliar, yang merupakan rekor terbesar tahun ini.

QApa itu 'Max Pain Point' untuk opsi Bitcoin yang akan kedaluwarsa, dan di level harga berapa?

A'Max Pain Point' untuk opsi Bitcoin yang akan kedaluwarsa berada di level $95.000, yang menciptakan gravitasi harga jangka pendek yang kuat.

QMenurut analis, ke level harga berapa Bitcoin diperkirakan akan turun sebelum akhirnya rally?

AAnalis memperkirakan Bitcoin akan turun terlebih dahulu ke level $82.000-$84.000 sebelum rally menuju $95.000 atau bahkan lebih tinggi.

QMengapa pergerakan harga selama liburan mungkin tidak berkelanjutan menurut QCP Capital?

AQCP Capital mencatat bahwa pergerakan harga yang didorong liburan secara historis cenderung mean-revert (kembali ke rata-rata) dan biasanya memudar ketika likuiditas kembali pada bulan Januari.

Related Reads

Historical Bottom Signal Reappears? Messari Valued at $300 Million Sells for $10 Million

Messari, a major crypto data and research platform once valued at $300 million, was sold to rival Blockworks for just over $10 million in June 2026. This sale marks a broader, quiet contraction in the crypto industry. Data platforms like DappRadar and Parsec have shut down, media outlets like CoinDesk have been sold at steep discounts, and companies across the sector are laying off staff or pivoting to AI, which is disrupting traditional research and data business models. Venture capital investment in crypto has plummeted, with funding in Q1 2026 at its lowest since 2020, as capital and talent shift aggressively toward AI. Prominent crypto investors are leaving the space, and many funds are struggling. However, these extreme pessimism signals may historically indicate a market bottom. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its 2026 high, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in "extreme fear" for months, and long-term Bitcoin holders control a near-record 80% of the supply. Similar combinations of deeply negative signals—including low VC activity and distressed asset sales—preceded major bull markets in 2018, 2020, and 2022. While Messari's downfall symbolizes a tough period, it also aligns with patterns seen at cycle lows.

marsbit20m ago

Historical Bottom Signal Reappears? Messari Valued at $300 Million Sells for $10 Million

marsbit20m ago

Google TPU Shipments Revised Up by 50%

Recent industry research indicates a significant upward revision in the shipments of Google's TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips. Previous expectations for 2027 were set at around 10 million units, but new estimates now point to 15 million units, a 50% increase. This substantial boost directly translates to higher demand across the entire supporting supply chain. Google's TPU clusters utilize a standardized all-optical interconnect architecture. Consequently, key hardware components are deeply integrated and scaled in fixed ratios with the chips. The 15 million TPU target will drive corresponding demand increases for NPO optical engines (roughly a 1:1 match), 1.6T optical modules, OCS optical switches, high-end server power supplies, fiber optics & MPO connectors, and liquid cooling solutions. Among these, liquid cooling is highlighted as the sector experiencing the most significant transformation and offering the most stable potential for excess returns. As next-generation TPU chips reach power levels where traditional air cooling is insufficient, liquid cooling becomes essential. 2026 is forecasted as the first year of substantial adoption for Google's liquid cooling solutions. This shift, coupled with delivery and capacity bottlenecks faced by incumbent overseas manufacturers, is creating a prime window for domestic Chinese suppliers to enter and secure Google's core supply chain. The market size for Google-specific liquid cooling is projected to potentially triple from a baseline of hundreds of billions to around 300 billion units by 2028. The logic for the fiber optic sector is also being rewritten. Once considered a cyclical commodity tied to telecom operator procurement, fiber is now a strategic and scarce resource for AI Data Centers (AIDC). A severe supply-demand imbalance, driven by the long lead time for preform production (18-24 months) and surging demand from cloud giants, is supporting strong performance. Chinese fiber manufacturers are well-positioned to capture a significant share of global AIDC demand, with exports potentially reaching 200-300 million core kilometers in 2026. Overall, the investment focus within the AI computing industry is shifting from pure "chip performance speculation" towards the more certain incremental growth in computing infrastructure and its supporting ecosystem. The upward revision in Google TPU shipments, along with the potential for further doubling by 2028, is seen as solidifying performance visibility for the entire supporting supply chain over the next two years.

marsbit1h ago

Google TPU Shipments Revised Up by 50%

marsbit1h ago

What Wall Street Really Wants After the Crypto Story Recedes

The tide of speculative crypto narratives has receded, revealing Wall Street's true objective: building a controlled, yield-generating, and compliant financial pipeline on distributed ledgers. They are migrating core functions onto blockchains, not for decentralization, but for efficiency and new revenue streams. Key developments include BlackRock's BUIDL fund, a tokenized treasury fund acting as a foundational reserve asset, and the rise of Securitize, which is going public and partnering with the NYSE to build a 24/7 digital securities trading and settlement system. This signals a major shift of securities clearing to blockchain technology. To make volatile assets like Bitcoin palatable for institutional investors, firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are creating "covered call" ETFs (e.g., BITA). These products systematically sell options on Bitcoin holdings, transforming price volatility into stable monthly income, effectively repackaging crypto as a yield-bearing asset. Stablecoins are being positioned not as speculative tools but as efficient payment rails. Companies like Stripe and Mastercard are integrating them for instant, low-cost merchant settlements and cross-border card payments, respectively. Critically, new legislation like the GENIUS Act shapes them as non-interest-bearing, heavily regulated extensions of the US dollar system. In summary, Wall Street is quietly constructing a parallel, blockchain-based financial infrastructure featuring tokenized traditional assets, structured crypto yields, and programmable dollar pipelines—all under its control and fully integrated with existing regulatory and credit frameworks.

marsbit1h ago

What Wall Street Really Wants After the Crypto Story Recedes

marsbit1h ago

Tying Itself to SpaceX: Cursor's $60 Billion Rise

This article recounts the rapid rise of AI-powered coding startup Cursor and its 25-year-old MIT graduate CEO, Michael Truell. Launched in 2023, Cursor achieved explosive growth, reaching over 10 billion USD in revenue by late 2025. However, its journey highlights a central dilemma for AI application companies: dependence on foundational model providers. Cursor initially relied heavily on Anthropic's models but faced an existential threat when Anthropic launched its own competing coding tool, Claude Code. In response, Cursor declared an internal emergency in early 2026 and accelerated development of its own model, Composer. To secure the immense computing power needed, Truell struck a pivotal deal with Elon Musk's SpaceX in April 2026. The collaboration grants Cursor access to SpaceX's supercomputing resources for Composer, while SpaceX's Grok model benefits from Cursor's programming data. The agreement includes a potential 600 billion USD acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX later in the year, though a substantial termination fee is in place if the deal falls through. The story explores Cursor's intense, sometimes controversial hiring practices involving lengthy unpaid "work trials," its complex partnership-turned-rivalry with Anthropic, and its high-stakes gamble to ensure independence through the SpaceX alliance. The core question remains: will Cursor evolve into a defining, independent "generational" software company, or become a key piece in a tech giant's AI arsenal?

marsbit1h ago

Tying Itself to SpaceX: Cursor's $60 Billion Rise

marsbit1h ago

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

Kraken plans to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual futures for eligible US professional traders through its acquired derivatives exchange, Bitnomial. These contracts, featuring continuous pricing, no expiry, and regular funding, aim to provide a regulated domestic route to a product that is central to global crypto trading but has been largely inaccessible on US platforms. The offering is expected to be integrated into Kraken Pro, allowing traders to manage various exposures in one interface. Key factors for success will include eligibility criteria, contract design, and the development of sufficient liquidity. This move could pave the way for more regulated perpetual products in the US market.

bitcoinist11h ago

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

bitcoinist11h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of SOON (SOON) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow