冲进9万底部区间:Builder们为何集体喊着要“真熊”?

比推Published on 2025-11-19Last updated on 2025-11-19

作者:haotian

原文标题:BTC跌破9万美元后,为什么Builder集体呼唤‘真熊市’?


和一些 Builder 聊了一圈,意外地发现:他们并没有悲观熊市的到来,反倒希望「深熊」能够长久一些。Why?我试着揣摩下,他们的心理:

1)从 2023 年的铭文「伪创新」热潮,到东西方 VC 互不接盘的 BTC layer2 叙事,再到 Solana 上掀起的 AI Agent MEME 资产发行叙事,再到 BN 掀起的一系列人造内盘牛,整个牛市被分裂成一波波短促的注意力节点:热闹但短促然后一地鸡毛。

可以认为「真牛」从未来过,也可以说「假牛」从未走开,但曾经大家熟悉的 DeFi Summer、NFT 破圈这类能场内创新带动场外增量的「超级牛」却变得遥不可及;

2)最让 Builder 们绝望的是,当宣扬 MEME Super Cycle 的声音占据主导后,MEME 文化已经演变成了一个「叙事黑洞」,疯狂吞噬着整个市场对于「技术创新」的关注度。

试想,当 PumpFun 每天诞生上万个土狗 MEME 币时,且一个 MEME 项目能动辄到达 100M 甚至 2B 的市值高度时,大家都习惯了零和博弈 PVP 的快感,完全没有耐心再去理解啥叫去中心化 Sequencer、啥叫 Intent 意图执行网络?啥叫 ZK Coprocessor?这让很多长期主义 Builder 彻底失去了「存在感」;

3)更要命的时,由于流动性充沛的退出时间窗口很短,踏实 Build 的项目反倒因为 Roadmap 路线、Tokenomics 设计等既定规划姗姗来迟,而一些专为叙事而设计的 VC 攒局项目或交易所内生态自造项目会想尽法子先吸走原本属于「价值项目」的流动性。

等真正的叙事项目 build 成品的时候,市场已流动性枯竭,TGE 即破发,不得已索性破罐子破摔投资人做市操纵团队老鼠仓,背负全部的骂名,用最没有尊严的方式狼狈退出。要知道,没有流动性充沛的天时地利,拉盘即正义的发生概率万里挑一;

4)关键是,真正的技术创新需要用长时间周期来验证,来落地 PMF,但已然变化的市场大环境根本不利于创新发生。很现实的问题,一个项目从技术攻坚到产品打磨再到生态落地,本来少说也得 2-3 年,甚至跨周期才能真正建立品牌壁垒。但新环境下,在仅有的 3 个月时间窗口下,所有人都在争先刷 TVL,搞热度,争先 TGE,谁还有耐心看项目慢慢验证 PMF?

所以无可奈何市场陷入了荒诞循环:真正创新需要时间,但市场不给时间;坚持长期主义的被淘汰,投机取巧的反而能套现离场。

以上。

终于明白了,他们希望的从来都不是来一次无力的「深熊」,而是想彻底去除那些阻碍真创新的「噪音牛」。


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