Key Takeaways
Why is Ethereum showing bullish signals?
Fund holdings hit a record 6.7 million ETH, while mega whales are aggressively accumulating, signaling strong institutional demand.
Which price levels matter now?
A breakout above $4.8K is possible if whale accumulation grows, but a drop below $4.3K could follow if selling pressure intensifies.
Since hitting $4.7k a week ago, Ethereum [ETH] has struggled to keep up with an upward momentum. As of this writing, Ethereum was trading at $4,471, marking a 0.12% drop on daily charts and 4.09% on weekly charts.
Amid this market drawdown, XWIN Research, on CryptoQuant, observed three key market players defying odds.
3 bullish factors driving Ethereum’s momentum
According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum has flashed three major signals indicating strengthening market conditions. As such, demand for ETH is soaring across spot, Futures, and options markets.
For starters, institutions are aggressively accumulating ETH, with fund holdings of Ethereum hiking to an all-time high. Thus, ETH held by institutions and exchange-traded products has surpassed the 6.7 million mark.
Source: CryptoQuant
Such a massive spike suggests that capital is accumulating ETH as a core asset, creating a significant basis of demand. Unlike the previous retail-driven way, this cycle is mostly institutionally driven.
Secondly, Ethereum’s Future Open Interest has surged to significant levels, suggesting that institutional investors are actively trading derivatives.
Source: CryptoQuant
Typically, rising OI during a period of stability indicates strong confidence in the market and signals that the rally is sustainable.
Finally, in addition to this institutional demand, Ethereum mega whales are also aggressively stacking. Inasmuch as so, addresses holding over 10k ETH are currently accumulating ETH at an unprecedented pace.
This further validates strong bullish sentiments among holdings funds and CME activity.
What’s holding ETH back?
Interestingly, while large entities are aggressively stacking ETH, retail traders are taking a step back and are aggressively exiting the market.
Spot Taker CVD data from Cryptoquant showed that sellers have dominated the spot market.
Over the past week, the spot market recorded Taker Sell Dominant, indicating that more sell orders are executed in the market than buy orders.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, Ethereum’s spot market has recorded a negative Buy Sell Delta for seven consecutive days.
According to Coinalyze, the altcoin saw 45.5k ETH in Sell Volume compared to 37k ETH Buy Volume, extending a week-long trend.
Source: Coinalyze
As a result, Ethereum recorded a negative Delta of -8.2k ETH, a clear sign of aggressive selling activity.
Tag of war: ETH at crossroads?
AMBCrypto’s analysis uncovered that Ethereum was experiencing a mismatch in sentiment between large entities and retail traders.
Notably, while whales and institutions were bullish, retailers were bearish, leaving the market at a crossroads.
Having said that, if these conditions persist, we could see prolonged consolidation. Likewise, if large entities increase their accumulation, and retailers reduce spending, ETH will break out and target $4.8k.
However, the momentum to the upside is slowly fading while the downward trend is strengthening. At press time, the altcoin’s Stochastic RSI fell to 14, reaching oversold territory.
Source: TradingView
In addition, its Relative Vigor Index (RVGI) dropped to 0.09 after making a bearish crossover, further evidencing weakening momentum.
Therefore, ETH is at a breaking point, and if large entities also start spending, ETH will breach $4.3k support and drop to $4173.
