Matrixport投研：BTC“非典型”突破ATH，原因几何？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-11Last updated on 2025-07-11

Abstract

市场正迎来罕见的多重利好共振。

近期，BTC 先后突破历史新高，现报 117 k $。但值得注意的是，与过往行情不同，本轮上涨未见杠杆推动，散户情绪意外地保持冷静。随着价格刷新历史新高，我们需要承认 BTC 正在迈入下一个交易区间。

1 

多个利好催化剂正在陆续显现，为未来几个月的上行行情奠定了良好基础。BTC 已突破一条关键趋势线，释放出强烈的技术性突破信号。自 4 月中旬以来， BTC 现货 ETF 持续获得资金流入。从 2024 年 1 月推出至今，BTC ETF 已累计吸金 490 亿美元，结构性资金已开始稳步建仓。7 月作为 BTC 的强势季节，再叠加华盛顿“加密政策周”的到来，市场正迎来罕见的宏观与监管利好共振。在此背景下，《GENIUS 法案》正加快在国会的审议进程，有望在稳定币监管与数字资产普及方面带来实质性影响。

2 

美联储此前曾判断，特朗普推动的新一轮关税政策将会带来通胀压力。今年 4 月“解放日”当天，相关政策正式公布后，消费者情绪一度趋于谨慎，短期通胀预期也随之上扬。但从实际数据来看，通胀压力并未显现，整体仍处于温和区间。最近三期 CPI 数据均在 2.4% 或以下，靠近美联储的 2% 通胀目标；且连续四期低于市场预期，市场对通胀回升的担忧显著缓解。近期公布的 CPI 数据至关重要，值得市场关注。

3 

美联储正面临来自政治层面的持续施压。6 月 17 至 18 日的 FOMC 会议纪要显示，美联储官员整体倾向于启动降息，尽管内部仍存在一定分歧。纪要发布当日，BTC 随之上涨 2% 。当前市场普遍预期年内将降息两次，首次降息可能在 9 月落地。若下周通胀数据未显著回升，鲍威尔将面临更大市场与政治压力，必须就其持续的鹰派立场给出明确交代。

总结

本轮 BTC 上涨明显不同于以往高点常见的“散户杠杆冲顶”行情，整体杠杆使用有限，资金费率仅小幅转正。真正的推动力来自 BTC 现货 ETF 持续流入和企业配置需求。未平仓合约随价格温和上行，尚未看到明显新增杠杆多头入场。尽管已创历史新高，大多数交易者仍保持轻仓，市场远未进入拥挤阶段。当前资金层面，ETF 累计净流入达 490 亿美元；政策端转向宽松，CPI 预计维持温和；监管方面，《GENIUS 法案》也有望下周取得实质性突破。叠加 7 月的季节性优势，市场正迎来罕见的多重利好共振。但从仓位结构与价格走势来看，市场对上述利好尚未完全定价，后续仍存在进一步发酵空间。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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