ETH的“换庄”结束了吗?

投研日志Published on 2025-05-11Last updated on 2026-06-30

Abstract

所以,大持有者募集筹码的过程会让市场比较煎熬或者说很难跟上节奏;最好的办法就是“持有并无视涨跌”或者“看不参与”。但无论如何预见的是,当ETH进入“第三阶段”后,它的表现应该会和以往周期都不一样了。

作者:@Murphychen888

前几天有小伙伴问到关于ETH的筹码集中度。之前我曾分享过,赫芬达尔指数能够很好的反映筹码集中度问题。其网络地址在当前供应量中所占的份额,可以估计指数代表筹码正在向少数持有者集中度,指数低则表示筹码分配情况较好。在3月18日的推文中该指数为0.75‰,而当前已经上涨到1.1‰。从整个以太坊的时间数据上,我们可以看到有明显的三个阶段(如图1):

图1

第一阶段:2015年8月-2023年3月,赫芬达尔指数从3‰的高点开始下跌;这个过程非常缓慢,整整经历了7年的时间。说明在这7年中,无论价格涨跌,ETH都朝着更加分散的趋势在发展。

第二阶段:2023年3月-2024年12月,赫芬达尔指数在0.4‰左右触底;此后无论是ETF通过后的大量买入,还是牛市中的涨涨跌跌,指数一直在底部徘徊。我们分析其背后的逻辑:照理说ETF通过后机构大量买入应该会导致集中度上涨,但实际并没有。说明在大约一个期限,也同样有大持有者地址将筹码派发给了更多的分散地址,对冲了ETF的买入。有小伙伴将这个过程称为“ETH正在换庄”也无无。

第三阶段:2024年12月至今,赫芬达尔指数从底部开始快速上涨,目前已达到2018年3月时的同等高度。可以说只是用了5个月的时间来归集,就完成了曾经走过5年之久的分散之路。

(图2)

从2024年12月到2025年4月,ETH价格从4000美元跌至1500美元,而同期赫芬达尔指数却在快速上涨。说明在币价下跌时有少数持有者正在大量收集筹码,且同时并没有大量持有者在分散筹码。这就导致赫芬达尔指数能在短期内快速上涨的直接原因,即集中度越来越高。

筹码更集中虽然不代表一定就拉盘,但一定更有利于控盘,且波动性会被放大。就像这几天ETH的波动性就远远大于其他币种主流。当然,现在的筹码集中度是1.1‰,距离历史高点3‰还有大量的一段距离。

大持有者是否还会继续募集筹码?

——我绝对会,毕竟开弓没有终点;

他们在收集筹码的过程中是否会持续不断的拉盘?

——我觉得不会,作为专业投资者应该非常懂得如何控制自己的成本; 所以,大持有者募集筹码的过程会让市场比较煎熬或者说很难跟上节奏;最好的办法就是“持有并无视涨跌”或者“看不参与”。但无论如何预见的是,当ETH进入“第三阶段”后,它的表现应该会和以往周期都不一样了。

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