BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-04-22Last updated on 2025-04-22

Abstract

自从市场下探大选后的75k美元转折点之后,时间又过去了一周,本周币价完全保持在80-81.5k美元以上,进一步证实这个双底价格是强有力的支撑位,我们中期上依然保持看涨,并认为接下来的几个季度内币价会站上新高,技术点位上的目标在11.5-12.5k美元之间,但具体的路径和时间依然难以捉摸。

BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

关键指标:(四月 14 日 下午四点->四月 21 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 3.6% (84, 450 美元->87, 500 美元), ETH 对 USD 下跌 1.9% ( 1, 620 美元->1, 590 美元)

  • BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

    自从市场下探大选后的 75 千美元转折点之后,时间又过去了一周。本周币价完全保持在 80-81.5 千美元以上,进一步证实这个双底价格是强有力的支撑位。我们的基本观点是币价会在接下来几个交易日甚至几周保持在 81-90 千美元范围内偏高的地方。如果币价突破 91-92 千美元,市场将尝试突破 10 万美元,然后再次创新高。如果相反币价跌破 73-73 千美元,我们会看到币价实在地跌到 60-65 千美元。

  • 我们中期上依然保持看涨,并认为接下来的几个季度内币价会站上新高,技术点位上的目标在 115-125 千美元之间。但具体的路径和时间依然难以捉摸。

市场主题

  • 总的来说在经历了大规模的调仓和去杠杆后,本周各个市场都表现得更加平静,同时与关税有关的大部分“坏消息”都已经释放(包括最新宣布限制对中国出口芯片)。鲍威尔在演讲中提到对降息持谨慎态度,指出存在更高通胀的风险,但并没有被市场或特朗普很好的接受。随后周末有报道指出特朗普表示“正在试图解除鲍威尔的职务”,引发了复活节后周一新一轮的美元抛售,美国资产的信誉继续被特朗普破坏。VIX 指数继续保持在 30 以上的水平,因为市场仍然非常担心特朗普及其政府会带来更多的意外消息。

  • 回到加密货币,比特币自二月末以来第一次打破和标普指数或美股之间的相关性,忽视股市疲弱以及 VIX 指数升高。更多的受到美元走弱影响并与黄金,G 10 外汇同步上涨。与此同时,其他小币在股市疲弱的环境中难以上涨。所以比特币超预期的表现更多是为了摆脱单一的美元及相关资产进行资产多样化。如果按照这个趋势发展,比特币应该有空间大幅上涨以赶上今年黄金的涨幅。我们依然坚持认为当前的环境下,在打破比特币与美股的相关性之后比特币才能真正迈入下一个阶段。

BTC 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

  • 在实际波动率跳低后隐含波动率也急剧下降。随着市场上仓位更清楚以及币价在 83-85 千美元非常窄的区间内找到平衡,实际波动率在上周大部分时间锁定在 30 多的水平。隐含波动率在复活节假期前随着市场卖出大幅下降,之后随着周末结束以及币价显示上涨的动向自然回调。

  • 尽管其他市场仍然比以往更加波动,但比特币开始与其他资产解除相关性,尤其是标普指数。如果这种情况继续持续下去,会进一步对期限曲线远端产生影响并导致比特币波动率调低。这对比特币作为美元及其资产的多样化替代至关重要。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

  • 短期偏度的价格从极度偏向下方逐渐回归平坦,与币价在周一上涨以及实际波动率的提高表现一致。但总的来说市场在当前的点位附近呆的更舒服,因为尽管隐含波动率在一天内的到期日上出现了 5% 的涨势,更远端并没有受到很大的影响,暗示市场在当前价格区域有多头头寸,同时我们也看到一些长期玩家在币价抬高时重新开始布置备兑认购头寸。

  • 随着隐含波动率定价调低以及币价稳定在 82-90 千美元的技术区间后在两边翼侧的卖家,峰度被大范围压低。但如果该范围突破,我们预计会看到实际波动率(以及隐含波动率)的大幅上涨,因此在当前的环境中考虑到现货的技术指标,以及非常高的实际波动率波动,偏度和现货之间的相关性,我们依然建议持有翼侧头寸。

祝大家本周好运!

BTC波动率周回顾(四月14日-21日)

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