BTC 价格波动，本周六大关键经济报告或成走势风向标

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-03-12Last updated on 2026-07-05

Abstract

美联储降息的可能性仍然至关重要。‍

来源：bitcoinst、cryptoslate

编译：区块链骑士

BTC 价格持续下跌，这证明了 Crypto 资产市场的波动性和不确定性日益加剧。随着 BTC 面临更大的下行压力，市场正等待着本周即将发布的一系列关键经济报告，这些报告可能会影响价格走势。

市场静待关键经济报告，BTC 价格岌岌可危

经过数周的强劲表现后，BTC 近期的价格暴跌引发了人们对进一步下跌以及熊市可能开启的担忧。从今天起，未来几天对于判断 BTC 能否从当前的看跌行情中恢复，还是会进一步下跌，将至关重要。

鉴于市场现状，行业领先的全球资本市场评论刊物《The Kobeissi Letter》已在 X 平台（原 Twitter）上概述了可能影响更广泛金融和 Crypto 资产市场的六个关键经济事件。

第一个事件是定于 2 月 11 日（周二）发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）。这一经济数据衡量的是美国的职位空缺数量。通常情况下，劳动力市场强劲意味着经济保持稳定，这可能会推迟美联储的进一步降息，从而导致 BTC 和其他数字资产表现不佳。

同一天发布的第二个经济数据是美国能源信息署（EIA）的短期能源展望报告。该报告提供了有关燃料供需的信息。虽然这一经济事件可能不是 Crypto 资产市场的直接驱动因素，但能源成本会影响通货膨胀，进而影响美联储的政策。这些政策可能会对 BTC 价格产生不利影响或提振作用。

本周三（2 月 13 日）计划发布的第三个事件是 2 月的消费者物价指数（CPI）通胀数据。这项经济数据衡量的是消费者层面的通胀情况，并在决定美联储未来降息方面发挥着关键作用。如果 CPI 高于预期，可能会对 BTC 产生负面影响，因为这将表明持续通胀持续存在，可能会推迟货币宽松政策。

定于周四发布的下一个经济数据是每周失业金申请报告。如果失业金申请继续上升，这可能表明经济正在走弱，这可能会增加市场对降息的预期，从而推动比特币价格上涨。

同一天推出的另一个关键事件是 2 月生产者价格指数 （PPI）。该数据衡量批发层面的通货膨胀。高于预期的 PPI 报告可能会对 BTC 产生负面影响，并可能通过降低美联储近期降息的可能性而导致进一步的崩盘。

定于本周发布的最终经济报告

市场密切关注重大经济事件的最新报道，比特币面临更大波动性。其价格在短短 24 小时内再次下跌了 2.28%。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，过去一个月里，这种先锋 Crypto 资产暴跌了 17.22%，价格跌至 80,380 美元。

如果即将发布的经济报告对市场不利，BTC 价格可能会进一步暴跌，因为看跌情绪可能会加剧。最后一个定于 3 月 14 日（周五）发布的金融报告是密歇根消费者信心指数。该指数提供了消费者对经济信心水平的相关信息。

消费者信心下降可能预示着经济存在不确定性，这可能会对 BTC 价格产生看跌影响，尤其是如果投资者转向更安全的资产。同时，如果消费者信心低迷加剧了美联储降息的预期，也可能会支撑 BTC 价格。

渣打银行数字资产研究主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 认为，BTC 近期的价格走势表明，在当前风险规避的市场情绪下，作为 Crypto 资产龙头的 BTC 可能需要主权国家增持，或者地缘政治局势更加明朗，才能进一步上涨。

Kendrick 指出，由于宏观不确定性，BTC 在短期内仍面临进一步下跌的风险，并且需要一个重大催化剂才能恢复其上升趋势。

他写道：「现在的问题是，哪个会先来：风险资产的复苏，还是 BTC 相关的利好消息，比如美国或其他国家的主权购买行为。」

美联储降息的可能性仍然至关重要。如果政策转变快于预期，可能在美联储 5 月的会议上发生，这可能会稳定风险市场。目前市场对 5 月降息的预期已从 50% 上升至 75%，增加了政策转变的可能性，这可能有利于 BTC。

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612 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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