Matrixport投研:善用期权进行BTC风险管理

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-01-10Last updated on 2025-01-10

Abstract

全球流动性变化明显,风险管理正当时

全球流动性的变化明显,BTC 或将进入盘整阶段。有证据表明,流动性趋势通常会提前约 13 周影响 BTC 的价格走势。


FOMC 会议的鹰派基调或抑制 BTC 的上涨趋势


自 2024 年 12 月的 FOMC 会议以来,BTC ETF 的资金流入已趋于平稳,维持在创纪录的 359 亿美元峰值。然而,随着美联储渐趋鹰派,风险资本可能会在货币政策更加明朗之前,犹豫是否进一步投资这些 ETF。尽管市场最初对 12 月 FOMC 会议的鹰派基调不以为然,但对 BTC 历史表现的分析表明,这种鹰派言论可能会限制 BTC 的上涨,直到美联储发出转向更鸽派立场的信号。


虽然许多人将 2024 年 BTC 价格的上涨归因于 ETF 的推出,但它可能与美联储的政策变化更为密切相关。2024 年的上涨始于 2024 年 1 月底美联储主席鲍威尔采取更鸽派的态度。这与 BTC 的上涨势头相吻合,但在 3 月的 FOMC 会议上,鲍威尔对美联储何时开始降息的态度变得不那么明确,这种不确定性可能导致了随后六个月的横盘整理,使得下一步行动严重依赖于美联储在 9 月转向鸽派。


尽管特朗普的政策立场有助加密货币上涨,但不排除美联储的鹰派立场可能会限制上涨空间。目前市场下行风险看起来有限,但提前进行风险管理可以规避风险。


隐含波动率较低,合理利用期权可以兼具保持市场敞口并管理风险


目前,由于隐含波动率处于低水平,期权提供了一个有吸引力的机会。看涨期权相对便宜,允许交易者利用潜在的上涨获利。或者,交易者可以使用看跌期权以低成本保护丰厚的 BTC 利润。鉴于当前的不确定前景,利用期权是交易者在保持市场波动敞口的同时管理风险的谨慎方式。


上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。
免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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725 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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