韩国股市,被比特币带崩了?

华尔街见闻Published on 2024-12-26Last updated on 2024-12-26

Abstract

外资出逃,居民抱团炒币。

韩国:2024年亚洲最差股市


今年以来,强美元背景下亚洲股市涨跌不一。
其中,有些以汇率贬值为代价实现了以本币计价的股票牛市,有些则以相对稳定的汇率牺牲了股市的部分涨幅。


唯有韩国是个特例:


以韩元计,韩国综指KSOPI今年累计下跌10.0%,考虑韩元下跌后,以美元计价的KSOPI下跌18.9%,均为亚洲最弱。


主要的下跌都发生在下半年。24H1KSOPI一度涨近20%,但下半年抹去了全部涨幅。
下半年,韩国发生了什么?


外资出逃,居民抱团炒币


从资本流向看,今年下半年以来,韩国只有机构还在保持着股市的净买入规模,居民部门已在不断削减买入。


外资更加悲观。今年11月,外资净卖出韩国股票达4.15万亿韩元,已连续四个月净卖出。12月初起两周内,又净抛售了2.4万亿韩元。


韩国居民从股市里出来的钱,很大程度上都拿去“炒币”了。


韩国央行(BOK)数据显示:截至11月,韩国国内加密货币投资者人数已达1559万人,较上月增加61万人。目前5100万的韩国国民中,30%都在炒币。


韩国加密货币五大交易所——UPbit、Bithumb、Coinone、Korbit、GOPAX的日均交易量从10月份3.4万亿韩元跃升至11月份14.9万亿韩元,增长了四倍有余。


韩国人向来热衷于投资加密货币。


2017年加密货币的第一波牛市时,约5%的人口参与其中;2021年第二轮牛市,10%的人口参与其中;如今这一比例扩大到30%。


但历史上,韩国股指与比特币价格整体是呈正相关的,直到今年10月,这一正相关性被彻底打破。


所以韩国股市下跌,比特币要背锅?

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