分析师指出,市场重置是比特币下一次反弹的潜在催化剂

币界网Published on 2024-08-22Last updated on 2024-08-22

币界网报道:

8月22日,技术分析师兼股票流量模型的创建者Willy Woo发布了一张交易所比特币库存图表。

他指出,直到8月初,由于德国和美国政府出售和Mt.Gox分配的约10万BTC的涌入,情况一直很悲观。

他补充说,“投机行为盛行,创造了更多的纸币比特币。”纸币比特币是指不涉及资产直接所有权的期货和期权等衍生品。

需要健康的纸比特币

然而,他在补充道:“8月初的市场崩盘冲走了大量的纸质比特币和杠杆,这一直使市场低迷。”

“这是对未平仓合约(纸面押注)的健康重置。当市场投机过热时,BTC真的很难攀升。”

Woo表示,“BTC的价格走势需要变得非常无聊”,然后补充道,“我觉得我们已经走了66%的路”,因为大部分的投机活动已经结束,更多的现货BTC需要被吸收。

在供需方面,已经从短期看跌转向“微妙中性”,他补充道:

“但从长远来看,好消息是我们没有处于熊市。只是一个非常长的整合期。”

与此同时,分析师Peter Brandt观察到,当前的牛市周期将很快成为历史上减半后最长的时间,创下历史新高。他补充说,这可能表明,本周期不一定会创下历史新高。

然而,ITC创始人Benjamin Cowed指出,与之前的市场周期相比,比特币在市场周期的进展方面几乎是应该的。

BTC价格展望

比特币价格在8月21日晚些时候的交易中创下周新高61800美元。然而,在周四上午的亚洲交易时段,该资产已回落至略高于60500美元。

尽管各州和已停业的交易所纷纷抛售,但自本月早些时候从大幅抛售中恢复以来,BTC一直处于区间震荡状态。

分析师Rekt Capital表示,BTC本周需要突破61420美元的阻力位,才能算作新的上涨趋势。

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

US CFTC Launches Broad Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Party Coming to an End?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting a broad investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, focusing on its business practices including social media promotions. This follows a bipartisan letter from U.S. senators urging the CFTC to probe alleged fraudulent marketing tactics used to promote gambling-like products. The action coincides with a period of explosive growth for the prediction market sector, driven by events like the World Cup, with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood reporting record trading volumes and revenue. The investigation signals a potential end to the sector's unregulated expansion and may lead to clearer federal oversight, particularly regarding investor protection and distinguishing prediction markets from traditional sports betting. The CFTC's move has also intensified a jurisdictional conflict with multiple U.S. states (including Kentucky and New York), which have sued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting and threatening state gambling tax revenues. Furthermore, the CME Group has sued the CFTC, challenging its approval of certain prediction market products. The report also highlights the political and capital interests intertwined with the industry. Donald Trump Jr. holds advisory and investment roles in both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the Trump administration has previously emphasized federal regulatory authority over these markets. The CFTC's investigation into Polymarket is framed as a step towards formalizing the industry's regulatory landscape, moving it from a phase of "wild growth" towards a more structured future.

marsbit42m ago

US CFTC Launches Broad Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Party Coming to an End?

marsbit42m ago

U.S. CFTC Launches Extensive Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Frenzy Season Cooling Down?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a broad investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, focusing on its business practices including social media activities. This follows a bipartisan letter from U.S. senators urging the CFTC to probe allegations of paid influencer false marketing and fraudulent promotion of gambling-like products to American users. The investigation comes as the prediction market sector experiences explosive growth, largely driven by the World Cup. Weekly trading volumes have hit record highs, exceeding $14.4 billion, with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood's new venture seeing significant activity. Major firms like Meta are also showing interest in the space. This regulatory scrutiny signals a potential end to the sector's "wild growth" phase. The CFTC's move also highlights an escalating jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state authorities. Over a dozen states, including Kentucky and New York, have sued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, which threatens state gambling tax revenues. The CFTC is countersuing to assert its exclusive federal jurisdiction over these "event contracts" as derivatives. Furthermore, the CFTC's approval of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual futures contract has sparked a lawsuit from traditional exchange CME, alleging regulatory overreach. The political and capital landscape is intricate, with Donald Trump Jr. holding advisory roles and investments in both Kalshi and Polymarket. This connects capital, political influence, and regulatory bodies, suggesting the current investigation may be a step toward formalizing the industry's rules rather than halting its progress.

Odaily星球日报45m ago

U.S. CFTC Launches Extensive Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Frenzy Season Cooling Down?

Odaily星球日报45m ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

522 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片