Bitcoin can hit $10 million per coin or more as it eats 25% of the global wealth, new analysis has concluded.
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In a blog post released on Feb. 16, fund manager and Bitcoin expert advisor Jesse Myers revealed his own “outrageous” BTC price target.
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Myers: "Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades"
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Bitcoin may struggle with “brutal” volatility, but hodlers and critics alike should be in no doubt about its long-term price trajectory, Myers says.
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Analyzing Bitcoin’s value proposition, he argues that Bitcoin’s ability to appreciate over time means that it is all but destined to suck in value from other asset classes.
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Among other reasons, this is because an asset with such appreciation characteristics and increasing scarcity allows it to fulfill the role of “digital gold.”
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“Bitcoin has an unthinkable property: it gets more valuable over time. Gold is good at storing purchasing power, but Bitcoin grows purchasing power,” the blog post reads.
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“Value stored in Bitcoin becomes worth more over time because of Bitcoin’s design of increasing scarcity – you just have to outlast the (admittedly brutal) volatility along the way.”
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Such an idea is not new — it forms the core thesis of many popular takes on Bitcoin, among them Saifedean Ammous’ seminal book, “The Bitcoin Standard.”
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Getting down to the numbers, meanwhile, Myers calculates the global allocation into BTC as 0.05% of available wealth as of 2023 — $400 billion.
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“That’s 1/2000th of global asset value,” the post continues.
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“With that in mind, we have to ask ourselves an important question: when Bitcoin’s mechanics continue to play out (causing it to continue appreciating reliably in value every 4 years), will more than 0.05% of the world’s capital eventually realize it wants to be in an asset like that? I think the only logical conclusion is ‘yes.’”
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That realization, Myers forecasts, means that $10 million per bitcoin should be a “conservative estimate.”
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“Overall, my personal assessment of where the ceiling is for Bitcoin is simple… it’s very high. Almost to the point that I’m embarrassed to show my analysis,” he concludes.
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“My conservative estimates suggest an outrageous full potential for Bitcoin’s price: $10m/Bitcoin, in today’s dollars. To put this another way, I believe Bitcoin’s full potential is to eat ~25% of the world’s value… while today it constitutes just 0.05%. That’s absurd. That means that I believe Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.”
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Macro asset comparison graphic (screenshot). Source: Jesse Myers/ Substack
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ARK Bitcoin "bear case" now $258,000 by 2030
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“Absurd” or not, Myers is far from alone in eyeing sky-high Bitcoin price valuations coming true in the coming decades.
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Some are even calling for the $1 million mark to hit before the end of this one — ARK Invest, for example, continued to stick by that very prediction throughout the 2022 bear market declines.
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In its "Big Ideas 2023" outlook released at the end of January, the investment giant described long-term opportunity as "strengthening."
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The firm's "bear case" for 2030, it revealed, still puts BTC/USD at $258,000 by the end of the decade.
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Bitcoin growth forecast data (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest
