Will SpaceX's First Quarterly Report Rescue Its Stock Price Under the Pressure of 1.2 Billion Shares Unlocking?
SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, a key test for its stock which has declined 20% from its IPO price. Approximately 9.12 billion shares are set to unlock on August 6, with an additional 3.19 billion following a week later, creating potential selling pressure from early investors. A strong report may be the only catalyst to reverse the downtrend.
The report will cover three segments: Space, Connectivity (Starlink), and AI. The AI business, centered on the merged xAI, is the biggest uncertainty. While it generated $818 million in revenue last quarter, it also reported a $2.5 billion operating loss and $7.7 billion in capital expenditures. New data center rental agreements with Anthropic and Google, particularly the substantial $1.25 billion monthly deal with Anthropic, add significant revenue variability this quarter. Investors await guidance on AI's future outlook and the timeline for launching AI computing satellites via Starship.
Starlink remains the stable profit driver, ending last quarter with 10.3 million subscribers. Key metrics will be user growth, average revenue per user (ARPU), and enterprise/government contract backlogs.
The Space segment, which posted a $657 million operating loss last quarter, will be scrutinized for updates on Starship development following its 13th test flight and the pace of Falcon 9 launches, many of which support internal Starlink deployment.
Wall Street expects Q2 revenue of around $6.9 billion and EBITDA of $2.1 billion. However, as this is the first earnings report, analyst forecasts lack a historical baseline and could see significant variance. With a current market cap of ~$1.4 trillion and a high valuation, the market's reaction post-earnings will hinge on the report's strength, the magnitude of post-lockup selling, and ongoing investor concerns.
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