# Artikel Terkait Oracles

Pusat Berita HTX menyediakan artikel terbaru dan analisis mendalam mengenai "Oracles", mencakup tren pasar, pembaruan proyek, perkembangan teknologi, dan kebijakan regulasi di industri kripto.

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

This article examines the rise of prediction markets, contrasting their growing institutional acceptance in the West with their restrictive regulation in Asia. It details how prediction markets, which originated from informal political betting and academic experiments like the Iowa Electronic Market, aggregate crowd wisdom into probabilistic prices through binary contracts. Their growth accelerated around 2020, reaching over $14 billion in monthly volume. A key driver is the "skin in the game" principle, where users risk their own capital, leading to high accuracy in predicting events like Fed rate decisions and elections, as demonstrated by platforms like Polymarket. Meta's entry, with Mark Zuckerberg reportedly leading the development of the Arena app, signals the market's maturation. In the U.S., court rulings have distinguished prediction markets from gambling, facilitating entry by traditional financial institutions. However, most Asian jurisdictions still classify them as gambling, focusing on social control rather than financial innovation. The article argues this stance creates three problems for Asia: 1) regulatory arbitrage pushes users to riskier offshore platforms, 2) loss of sovereign information infrastructure as valuable social sentiment data accumulates abroad, and 3) abandonment of user protection. It concludes that Asia needs a policy shift from prohibition to constructive regulation, integrating these markets into the formal system to harness their data as a national asset, as initiatives like Limitless Research are beginning to do.

marsbit07/11 10:43

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

marsbit07/11 10:43

Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Countries Still View Them as Gambling

Mark Zuckerberg is backing prediction markets, with Meta developing its own app "Arena," signaling major tech validation. This industry now sees over $14 billion in monthly volume. These markets function as binary contracts (payout $1 if an event occurs, $0 if not), with trading prices reflecting real-time event probabilities. Results are settled by oracles. Prediction markets originated from informal political betting and academic experiments like the Iowa Electronic Markets. Their core mechanism relies on "skin in the game"—participants risk their own money, making aggregated information more reliable than polls or expert opinions. They have proven accurate in forecasting areas like monetary policy, elections, and market events. While Western markets are integrating them into regulated financial systems, many Asian jurisdictions still classify them as gambling, leading to regulatory divergence. This stance creates three major issues for Asia: regulatory arbitrage and capital outflow, loss of informational sovereignty as valuable social data accumulates offshore, and a lack of user protection within a formal framework. The article argues that Asia's focus should shift from blocking these markets to responsibly harnessing the data they generate within a regulated system. The current avoidance of discussion cedes leadership and advantages to foreign entities.

Foresight News07/09 11:47

Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Countries Still View Them as Gambling

Foresight News07/09 11:47

On-Chain Figures on the Eve of Kickoff: 1.6 Billion Traded Before the World Cup Even Begins

"On-Chain Numbers on the Eve of the World Cup: $1.6 Billion Traded Before Kick-off" Analysis of on-chain markets before the 2026 FIFA World Cup reveals significant crypto integration into football. The most striking figure is the approximately **$1.6 billion** in total trading volume on the single "World Cup Winner" contract on the Polymarket prediction market platform, accumulated before a single match was played. This represents explosive growth for a sector whose annual volume surged from ~$16B in 2024 to ~$64B in 2025. The ecosystem is maturing beyond speculation. Key developments include: 1) **Infrastructure upgrades** like Polymarket's migration to native, regulated USDC stablecoin for settlements; 2) **Reliable data oracles**, such as Chainlink, being used to resolve real-world match outcomes on-chain; and 3) **Official recognition**, with FIFA appointing its first-ever "Prediction Markets" partner. Over 100 contracts now cover everything from the outright winner to individual match results and even non-sporting risks like venue relocation. This evolution marks a fundamental shift. While crypto firms are absent from FIFA's top-tier sponsor list, the technology has deeply penetrated the tournament's financial and predictive infrastructure through regulated stablecoin settlements, decentralized oracles, and new official partnership categories. The regulatory landscape remains complex and varies by jurisdiction, but on-chain markets for the World Cup are already a multi-billion-dollar reality.

marsbit06/06 00:54

On-Chain Figures on the Eve of Kickoff: 1.6 Billion Traded Before the World Cup Even Begins

marsbit06/06 00:54

The Game of Giants, The Table for Newcomers: The 7 Hidden Cards of the Prediction Market in 2026

By 2026, new players are expected to enter the prediction market space, competing with established platforms by leveraging seven key differentiators: product quality, market selection, capital efficiency, oracle reliability, liquidity provision, regulatory compliance, and strategic focus (vertical vs. horizontal integration). While leading platforms currently hold advantages in liquidity and regulation, they often suffer from technical debt and inflexibility. New entrants can differentiate through superior user experience, API stability, exclusive markets, yield-generating collateral, innovative oracle systems, and tailored regulatory approaches. Strategies may include embedding with major platforms like Robinhood, offering specialized markets, or building vertically integrated products. The competition mirrors earlier battles in NFTs and perpetual exchanges, where differentiation drove rapid market capture.

比推02/12 08:06

The Game of Giants, The Table for Newcomers: The 7 Hidden Cards of the Prediction Market in 2026

比推02/12 08:06

2026 Prediction Market: The Seven Differentiated Strategies for New Players to Break Through

By 2026, the prediction market landscape is expected to become highly competitive, with new entrants leveraging differentiation to capture market share. Established platforms, while holding liquidity and regulatory advantages, are often burdened by technical debt, creating opportunities for agile newcomers. Differentiation can be achieved across seven key dimensions: 1. **Product Quality**: Superior UX, API stability, transparent fees, and diverse order types. 2. **Asset Variety**: Offering exclusive markets, especially in underserved niches. 3. **Capital Efficiency**: Utilizing yield-bearing collateral and innovative margin mechanisms. 4. **Oracle & Settlement**: Enhancing reliability with hybrid or AI-driven oracles for new markets. 5. **Liquidity Provision**: Incentivizing market makers or adopting pooled liquidity models. 6. **Regulatory Compliance**: Tapping into restricted markets via localized licensing. 7. **Strategic Focus**: Choosing between horizontal (infrastructure-focused) or vertical (end-to-end user experience) approaches. Success will hinge on excelling in one or more of these areas to challenge incumbents.

marsbit02/12 07:23

2026 Prediction Market: The Seven Differentiated Strategies for New Players to Break Through

marsbit02/12 07:23

Pharos Ecosystem Security Guide: Full-Link Risk Control for RWA Asset Integration

"Pharos Ecosystem Security Guide: Comprehensive Risk Control for RWA Asset Integration" This guide provides developers in the Pharos ecosystem with a practical framework for integrating Real-World Assets (RWAs), addressing the unique challenges of combining off-chain legal claims with on-chain functionality. Pharos’s Layer 1 infrastructure, featuring Block-STM for parallel execution and dual EVM/WASM support, offers the high-speed settlement and complex computational power required for RWA operations. The analysis identifies two primary RWA models: 1) the on-chain to off-chain model (e.g., fundraising in stablecoins for off-chain investments like U.S. Treasuries) and 2) the asset tokenization model (e.g., fractionalizing real estate for on-chain ownership). The core focus is mitigating critical risks beyond smart contracts. Key strategies include: enforcing identity compliance via smart contract-level whitelisting and DID integration; implementing oracle-based circuit breakers to halt operations during stablecoin depegging events; ensuring asset authenticity with multi-source oracles for real-time NAV updates; mandating transparency for off-chain Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs); designing built-in redemption queues and liquidity buffers to prevent secondary market collapses; and rigorously defending against inherited EVM vulnerabilities using audited libraries and reentrancy guards. The conclusion emphasizes that RWA security is a full-stack challenge, requiring robust integration of legal, financial, and technical safeguards to ensure asset authenticity and systemic resilience on Pharos.

marsbit01/20 14:10

Pharos Ecosystem Security Guide: Full-Link Risk Control for RWA Asset Integration

marsbit01/20 14:10

Cardano Eyes Bitcoin And XRP DeFi Expansion In 2026, Says Hoskinson

In a January 2026 update, Charles Hoskinson outlined Cardano's ambitious plan to expand its DeFi ecosystem beyond its native chain, targeting integrations with Bitcoin, XRP, and Midnight. Dubbed the "Pentad" strategy, the initiative aims to make Cardano a cross-ecosystem product by building bridges, expanding oracle coverage, and developing private stablecoins. Hoskinson emphasized that Cardano must differentiate through privacy-enabled features—like private DEXs and prediction markets—rather than competing on marginal improvements. He also announced plans to upgrade Cardano’s top dApps for Bitcoin and XRP DeFi, aiming to significantly increase their TVL and user base. Additionally, Hoskinson revealed a more aggressive release cadence for 2026, with major updates every two months.

bitcoinist01/12 11:39

Cardano Eyes Bitcoin And XRP DeFi Expansion In 2026, Says Hoskinson

bitcoinist01/12 11:39

a16z: 3 Ways Crypto Will Outgrow Cryptocurrency by 2026

a16z: 3 Ways Crypto Will Move Beyond Crypto by 2026 The article outlines three key trends for 2026, as predicted by a16z crypto experts: 1. **Smarter, Broader Prediction Markets:** Prediction markets will become more sophisticated by integrating with AI and crypto. They will offer a wider range of contracts for detailed events, moving beyond major elections. This growth presents challenges, such as resolving disputed outcomes, which new decentralized governance and LLM oracles can address. AI agents trading on these platforms could uncover new predictive strategies. Prediction markets won't replace polls but will complement them, with crypto providing tools to verify respondents are human. 2. **Crypto Tech as a Foundational Tool Beyond Blockchains:** The cryptographic tool SNARKs (succinct proofs for verifying computations) will see drastically reduced overhead costs, dropping to around 10,000x the cost of the original computation. This efficiency, achievable on a single GPU, will make "verifiable cloud computing" practical. Users running CPU workloads in the cloud will be able to obtain cryptographic proofs of correctness at a reasonable cost, enabling trust in off-chain computations. 3. **The Rise of "Staked Media":** The traditional media model is being supplemented by a new paradigm where commentators use crypto tools to make verifiable commitments and back their opinions with action. This involves using tokenized assets, programmable locks, and prediction markets to prove they are not engaging in hype or "pump and dump" schemes. Trust is built not on claims of neutrality but on transparent, auditable proof—staking assets to show they have "skin in the game."

marsbit01/11 01:43

a16z: 3 Ways Crypto Will Outgrow Cryptocurrency by 2026

marsbit01/11 01:43

A16Z Crypto Trends Outlook: In 2026, Will You Take These Three Paths to Success?

a16z Crypto's 2026 Outlook: Three Key Trends to Watch 1. Prediction markets will become more widespread, intelligent, and integrated with AI and blockchain. They will expand beyond major events to cover nuanced outcomes, raising social questions about information value and market design. AI agents will trade and uncover signals, while decentralized governance and LLM-powered oracles will resolve disputes. They won't replace polls but will enhance them, with blockchain verifying human participants. 2. Blockchain-based cryptographic tools, specifically zk-SNARKs, will become practical for broader industries. The computational overhead for generating proofs in zkVMs is dropping to around 10,000x, making it feasible to run on devices like phones. This enables verifiable cloud computing, where GPU-powered proof generation can cryptographically verify CPU workloads run in the cloud at a reasonable cost. 3. "Staked Media" will emerge as a new trust paradigm. Moving beyond the flawed ideal of objectivity, this model uses cryptographic tools to make public, verifiable commitments. Commentators, podcasters, and analysts can stake tokens, link predictions to prediction markets, and create an auditable record of their aligned incentives. Trust is built not on claimed neutrality but on transparent, verifiable proof of having "skin in the game."

marsbit01/09 11:43

A16Z Crypto Trends Outlook: In 2026, Will You Take These Three Paths to Success?