# Artikel Terkait Oil Price

Pusat Berita HTX menyediakan artikel terbaru dan analisis mendalam mengenai "Oil Price", mencakup tren pasar, pembaruan proyek, perkembangan teknologi, dan kebijakan regulasi di industri kripto.

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?

In early August 2024, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged dramatically, from below 50% to over 80%, driven by renewed inflation concerns. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed a growing hawkish faction advocating for an immediate hike, citing prolonged above-target inflation. The key catalyst is escalating conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices up approximately 20% in July, threatening to reignite inflation. The next critical data point is the July CPI report on August 12th; a hot reading could solidify hike expectations. For crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, this represents near-term pressure. Bitcoin continues to exhibit high-beta, risk-on characteristics, making it sensitive to tightening liquidity and higher opportunity costs. However, historical precedent suggests that if a hike is perceived as the cycle's end rather than its start, the negative impact may be brief, with markets quickly pivoting to anticipate future rate cuts. U.S. stocks, especially crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and high-valuation tech stocks, face amplified volatility. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, pressuring growth stocks. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditures to demonstrable revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flows and weak growth narratives could see severe pressure if a September hike materializes, as financing costs would rise. Key indicators to watch include oil prices, upcoming inflation data, and Fed commentary at events like the Jackson Hole symposium.

Odaily星球日报Kemarin 02:06

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?

Odaily星球日报Kemarin 02:06

Bitcoin price wedged into ‘most divided’ FOMC as Iran war spikes oil prices 8%

Bitcoin's price fluctuated near $64,000 amid significant macro pressures. Key factors include a continued selloff in Asian and US stocks, particularly semiconductor and AI sectors, and rising geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which spiked oil prices. This raises inflation concerns ahead of a critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision are highly divided, with traders awaiting cues from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. BTC price action is currently range-bound between key moving averages, with low trading volumes and declining retail interest since late 2025, as capital shifts toward AI stocks.

cointelegraph07/29 17:17

Bitcoin price wedged into ‘most divided’ FOMC as Iran war spikes oil prices 8%

cointelegraph07/29 17:17

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

Citigroup Global Research has released a commodity tail risk report focusing on low-probability, high-impact scenarios for late 2026. The report argues that traditional supply-demand frameworks are now regularly disrupted by geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks. Nine key "wildcard" risks are identified: 1. **U.S.-Iran conflict** escalating to a persistent, multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production, potentially pushing crude above $150/bbl and retail gasoline above $6/gallon. 2. **Russia-Ukraine war escalation** triggering new restrictions on Russian energy exports, particularly impacting global natural gas and refined products markets more than crude oil. 3. **Aggressive stockpiling of critical minerals**, such as copper, potentially driving prices above $20,000/ton. 4. **Gold prices** potentially falling another 15-20% in the near term before potentially doubling to around $6,000/oz in the longer term. 5. **A record-strength El Niño** severely disrupting agricultural supplies, possibly pushing cocoa back above $10,000/ton. 6. **AI boom or bust** creating a two-way risk: a boom would boost demand for power-related commodities (electricity, gas, uranium, copper, aluminum), while a bust could cause a deflationary demand shock, though gold could benefit in either scenario. 7. **Renewed U.S.-China trade war** impacting American farm exports, potentially pushing corn below $4.20/bushel and soybeans below $10/bushel. 8. **Finalization of the Russia-China "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline** deal, which would drastically reduce China's LNG import needs post-2030, exacerbating a looming global LNG glut and pressuring prices towards $5-6/MMBtu. 9. **An extreme "Monroe Doctrine" scenario** where the U.S. blocks all oil exports from the Americas, causing a severe benchmark dislocation (high global prices like Brent above $100/bbl, but a steep discount for trapped American crude). The report advises investors to stress-test portfolios against these poorly priced extreme scenarios, as "once-in-a-decade" shocks have become more frequent.

marsbit07/29 06:52

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

marsbit07/29 06:52

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

Prediction market traders have raised the odds of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July meeting. On Polymarket, the probability of rates remaining unchanged dropped to 73.8%, while chances for a 25 basis point increase rose to 26.4%, with total trading volume reaching $109 million. Kalshi showed a similar split: 72.9% for no change and 27.6% for a hike, with $46.2 million in volume. The Fed's FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, with the current target rate at 3.5–3.75%. While a majority still expects no change, about a third of market participants anticipate an increase to 3.75-4%. This shift in expectations is attributed not only to persistent inflation but also to rising oil prices and tensions in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel last week before retreating. However, June's Consumer Price Index data, showing a monthly decline of 0.4% and a yearly inflation slowdown to 3.5%, provides an argument for the Fed to pause. Analysts note that the Fed's upcoming decision is being viewed as less predictable than usual.

cryptonews.ru07/28 09:31

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

cryptonews.ru07/28 09:31

Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

The upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, is expected to keep rates unchanged or raise them by 0.25%, with no chance of a cut, according to CME data. Experts are divided on the outcome. Some, like Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, advocate for a hike now due to AI-driven demand, rising oil prices from renewed US-Iran conflict, and ongoing trade tariffs. They argue Chair Kevin Warsh is boxed in by his past statements. Others, including James Knightley of ING and a Reuters poll majority, expect a hold, citing weaker-than-expected June inflation and a cooling labor market, but anticipate tightening later in the year. Both scenarios are seen as potentially negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.

cryptonews.ru07/27 16:26

Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

cryptonews.ru07/27 16:26

Three 'Reflexivity' Shadows Hang Over the Market

Global markets are currently enveloped by three mutually reinforcing "reflexive" loops: oil price politics, outsized capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers, and AI debt risks. According to Goldman Sachs, the combined negative feedback from these factors places the market in a fragile and precarious state. The first loop involves the two-way feedback between surging oil prices and rising interest rates. Brent crude's brief breach of $100 per barrel tests expectations of a U.S. policy response to curb prices and inflation. However, the delay in such intervention forces markets to increasingly price in the risks themselves. Higher energy costs are already impacting corporate earnings, as seen with an airline's profit warning, and threaten to fuel broader inflation. The second loop concerns the massive, escalating capital expenditure (capex) by major tech firms like Google, which recently raised its 2026 capex forecast significantly. The market's tolerance for viewing such spending as a cost-free growth signal is waning, shifting focus to investment returns. This competitive capex spiral pressures the entire cloud and semiconductor sector. Furthermore, the competitive gap in AI between leading closed-source and Chinese open-source models is narrowing rapidly, threatening the economic rationale behind massive investments. The third reflexive danger lies in the financing structures supporting this expansion. Bond prices for entities funding AI infrastructure, such as a Meta financing vehicle, have fallen sharply from issue price. While hyperscale balance sheets remain strong, soaring capex is eroding free cash flow conversion. There is a growing risk that today's capacity build-out leads to future oversupply and significant depreciation charges. Key near-term tests for these dynamics include Microsoft's upcoming earnings, which will scrutinize its balance of growth, spending, and cash flow, and the IPO of Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT, a major new competitor. The current environment is characterized by reflexivity, where each variable is both a cause and an effect, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of uncertainty.

链捕手07/27 10:29

Three 'Reflexivity' Shadows Hang Over the Market

链捕手07/27 10:29

Crude Oil Surges 10% in Intraday Trading! US Military Restores Blockade on Iran, Trump Warns of 'Heavy Blows' Tonight and Tomorrow, Imposes 20% Fee on Strait Shipping

Crude oil prices surged up to 10% intraday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply. President Trump announced the reinstatement of a maritime blockade against Iran, targeting its ships and their customers, while stating the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all other nations. He further declared that the US, as the "guardian" of the strait, would impose a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the strategic waterway to compensate for security costs. The US Central Command confirmed the naval blockade would commence on July 14 (GMT). Following Trump's statements, reports emerged of explosions near Iran's Larak Island and the port of Bandar Abbas, though Iranian authorities did not confirm their nature. Iran's Foreign Minister criticized the proposed 20% fee as excessive, asserting Iran's role as the guardian of the strait. An Iranian military spokesperson warned of a strong response to any unauthorized US interference in the waterway. The United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO) expressed opposition to charging tolls for passage through international straits, stating such measures lack legal foundation. Market reactions were pronounced, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $83 and WTI above $78. The situation intensified as Trump notified Congress of renewed hostilities with Iran, following US airstrikes on Iranian targets.

marsbit07/14 04:18

Crude Oil Surges 10% in Intraday Trading! US Military Restores Blockade on Iran, Trump Warns of 'Heavy Blows' Tonight and Tomorrow, Imposes 20% Fee on Strait Shipping

marsbit07/14 04:18

US Stocks Are at an Extremely Fragile Moment as Earnings Season Kicks Off

U.S. stocks are entering a high-stakes earnings season amidst what analysts describe as an "extremely fragile" market environment. While major indices show subdued volatility, underlying pressures from geopolitics, monetary policy expectations, and mixed credit market signals are building. UBS's proprietary "Turbu-lens" market fragility indicator has reached 0.9, its highest level since September 2025, historically a precursor to a sharp spike in the VIX volatility index. The risk is amplified by elevated earnings expectations. Analysts project robust profit growth for Q2—24% for the S&P 500 and 12% for the Stoxx 600—but recent upward revisions mean disappointment could trigger outsized market moves. Current low VIX levels are seen as misleading and temporary, with the earnings season likely to push volatility higher. Market internals reveal significant stress, with single-stock volatility exceeding index volatility by more than threefold. This divergence suggests a potential convergence that could drive a sharp rise in index-level volatility. Given likely continued sector rotation, UBS suggests single-stock options may offer better tactical hedging opportunities than broad index hedges. Further pressures stem from rising oil prices, which threaten to keep inflation and interest rate expectations elevated, and a cautious credit market where CDS spreads have not confirmed the equity rally's strength. For investors, UBS recommends focusing on pair-wise correlation trades to navigate expected stock-specific volatility, highlighting sectors like Tech, Energy, and Financials in the U.S. and Energy, Tech, and Consumer Discretionary in Europe.

marsbit07/11 02:47

US Stocks Are at an Extremely Fragile Moment as Earnings Season Kicks Off

marsbit07/11 02:47

US Stocks Are at a Time of 'Extreme Fragility' as Earnings Season Begins

U.S. stocks are in an "extremely fragile" state as earnings season begins. Despite low index-level volatility, internal pressures are mounting due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy expectations, and credit market signals. UBS's market fragility indicator, "Turbu-lens," has reached 0.9, its highest level since September 2025, historically a precursor to sharp VIX spikes. High earnings expectations for Q2—24% for the S&P 500 and 12% for Europe's Stoxx 600—amplify the risk of market disappointment. While the VIX is currently low, this calm is seen as temporary and likely to rise with earnings reports. Notably, single-stock volatility is over three times higher than index volatility, indicating extreme internal market divergence. This gap is expected to narrow, potentially triggering a surge in broader market volatility. Rising oil prices near $80/barrel maintain inflation concerns, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious and pushing 10-year Treasury yields toward 4.6%. Credit markets also show caution, with CDS spreads not fully endorsing the recent equity rally. For hedging, UBS suggests single-stock or pair-wise correlation trades in sectors like U.S. tech, energy, and financials, and European energy, tech, and consumer discretionary, as index-level hedges may be less effective amid expected sector rotation during earnings.

链捕手07/11 02:45

US Stocks Are at a Time of 'Extreme Fragility' as Earnings Season Begins

链捕手07/11 02:45

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: How Much of a Bitcoin Rally Can a Truce Agreement Support?

Headline: "U.S.-Iran Truce: How Much Can a Ceasefire Agreement Propel Bitcoin's Rebound?" On June 15th, Bitcoin rebounded to around $67,255, marking its first return to the $67,000 level since falling below $60,000 earlier in June. Ethereum and Solana also saw significant gains. The immediate driver for this market-wide recovery in crypto and global risk assets was the signing of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum, with a formal ceremony scheduled for June 19th. The agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, caused oil prices to plunge roughly 5%, easing inflation expectations and boosting prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This macroeconomic shift fueled a rally in U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high. SpaceX's spectacular post-IPO performance further energized market sentiment. However, on-chain and derivatives data from Glassnode suggest this move is more indicative of a technical rebound from deeply oversold conditions rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The crypto market is undergoing noticeable capital rotation. While Bitcoin ETFs recently saw their worst outflows on record, the bleeding has slowed significantly. Meanwhile, new altcoin ETFs for assets like XRP and Solana are attracting substantial inflows, causing Bitcoin's market dominance to drop to 58%. Despite the rebound, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in "Extreme Fear" territory at 22. The price quickly retreated after touching the $67,000 resistance level, indicating selling pressure persists. Analysis shows short-term speculative supply has been heavily washed out, with holder structure shifting toward a more long-term profile. While panic is subsiding and some on-chain metrics point to accumulation at lower prices, the market currently lacks the strong, sustained institutional buying needed to establish a new bullish trend.

Foresight News06/16 03:16