Bitcoin Price Falls Back Towards Week's Low on Inflation Worry

The January PCE Price Index – the Fed's favored inflation indicator – unexpectedly rose to 5.4%

The odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking its benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points in March are on the rise after the PCE Price Index showed the disinflation trend reversed in January.

The PCE Price Index for January rose 5.4% from a year ago versus 5.3% in December. That was far stronger than economist forecasts for the rate to slip to 5.0%. The core rate rose 4.7% versus 4.6% in December, and faster than the anticipated 4.3%.

On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index gained 0.6% in January, up from 0.2% in December and against expectations for 0.5%. The core rate also rose 0.6% in January versus 0.4% in December and forecasts for 0.4%.

Risk markets turned lower, with bitcoin (BTC) shedding about $200 to $23,730 – within a few dollars of its lowest level of this week. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.9% and S&P 500 futures are lower by 1.4%.

Though severely backward-looking – this report is for January – the PCE gauge remains the Fed's favored inflation indicator. Following the report, odds of a 50 basis point rate hike (as opposed to 25 basis points) at the Fed's next policy meeting in March are rising, with traders now nearly evenly split between the two choices. As recently as one month ago there was roughly a 100% expectation of a 25 basis point move in March.

Though remaining elevated, inflation during late 2022 had been trending lower, with Fed Chair Jay Powell saying in Januaryhe was seeing signs of a disinflation trend. This report could call that into question.

"Inflation remains stubborn and sticky between 4%-5%," tweeted RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. "Service inflation continues to increase with goods disinflation cooling. [The] risk of a March 50 basis point hike [is] rising and we are clearing moving toward a 5.5% policy peak at a minimum."