# Realized Price Articles associés

Le Centre d'actualités HTX fournit les derniers articles et analyses approfondies sur "Realized Price", couvrant les tendances du marché, les mises à jour des projets, les développements technologiques et les politiques réglementaires dans l'industrie crypto.

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

This article analyzes the formation of Bitcoin's bear market "bottom structure" by examining the relationship between cost basis and price action, particularly the behavior of short-term holders (STH). Historically, the cost basis of coins held for 1-3 months (1-3m_RP) has acted as a key resistance level during bear market rallies. This group's supply is often less committed; many entered the market expecting quick gains but were trapped. When the price rebounds to their break-even point, they tend to sell, creating resistance. Data shows that as of mid-April, the 1-3m_RP is approximately $75,400, a level Bitcoin is currently testing for the second time this cycle. The first test in mid-January failed, leading to a pullback. The author suggests a high probability of a similar outcome this time, as historical cycles show the second test rarely results in an immediate reversal. An alternative, less likely scenario is a break above this level, only to face stronger resistance at the broader STH-RP (average cost basis for all short-term holders) near $81,000, where a much larger supply of 2.31 million BTC resides. This could lead to price consolidation around the 1-3m_RP. A definitive bottom structure is confirmed only when the 1-3m_RP trend reverses from down to up, signaling a transition from a bear to a bull market. This process takes time, requiring patience to observe whether breakouts are genuine.

marsbitHier 05:54

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

marsbitHier 05:54

Bitcoin Price Bottom Not In Yet, Crypto Founder Calls ‘One Final Dump’

Bitcoin's recent price surge above $73,000 has sparked debate on whether the market has bottomed. However, crypto founder Joao Wedson suggests a "final dump" may still occur. His analysis, based on on-chain data, indicates that the Investor Price has fallen below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price—a signal that historically precedes a cycle bottom. This pattern suggests weaker investors are exiting while stronger hands accumulate, but the process is slow, leading to sideways or downward pressure. Market rallies are likely to fade due to selling pressure from investors seeking to break even. Wedson concludes the current structure resembles a mid-cycle reset rather than a final bottom, favoring gradual accumulation over rapid price expansion.

bitcoinist04/12 02:01

Bitcoin Price Bottom Not In Yet, Crypto Founder Calls ‘One Final Dump’

bitcoinist04/12 02:01

Bitcoin Struggles Under Key Adjusted Realized Price — Why It Matters

Bitcoin has been struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level, with its price peaking around $76,000 over the past two months. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, this resistance is due to the adjusted realized price—excluding coins older than seven years—which currently sits at approximately $72,500. Historically, extended periods below this level have coincided with bearish phases, potentially indicating several more months of negative price action. As of now, Bitcoin trades at $66,629, showing minimal movement over the past month. Despite increased trader attention and record open interest levels, a sustained recovery would require improved macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and demand. Without these factors, the market may face continued challenges.

bitcoinist03/30 06:01

Bitcoin Struggles Under Key Adjusted Realized Price — Why It Matters

bitcoinist03/30 06:01

Ethereum Network Experiences Rapid Growth In Daily Transactions Amid Rising ETH Prices

Ethereum's network is experiencing a rapid surge in daily transactions, coinciding with a rise in ETH's price toward $2,200. On-chain data indicates a significant spike in user activity, reflecting increased engagement with decentralized applications and on-chain services. Despite recent price declines, network activity remains robust, suggesting underlying resilience among investors. Analysts note that ETH is approaching a critical realized price level near $2,300, a psychological barrier separating profit from loss. With the price positioned in the middle of the realized price range, a medium to long-term holding strategy is advised. At the time of writing, ETH trades around $2,117, down over 2% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist03/27 03:21

Ethereum Network Experiences Rapid Growth In Daily Transactions Amid Rising ETH Prices

bitcoinist03/27 03:21

Ethereum Approaching Major Capitulation Zone — On-Chain Metrics Hint At Impending Shift

Following a period of underperformance, Ethereum has found some stability around the $2,000 level. However, on-chain analyst Boris warns that multiple metrics suggest the market is under significant stress and may be approaching a major capitulation phase. Key indicators signaling potential trouble include the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which is negative, indicating investors are holding unrealized losses. Furthermore, Ethereum's price is currently trading below its realized price of $2,200, meaning the average investor is at a loss. The network has also recently ended a 1,340-day streak during which most ETH tokens were in profit—a signal that often coincides with the end of a market cycle and bear market bottoms. For a market bottom to form, Boris notes the NUPL would need to move deeper into the capitulation zone. If another sell-off occurs, it could force investors to surrender their positions, creating a potential opportunity for long-term holders. At the time of writing, Ethereum's price is approximately $2,092, down over 1% in the past day.

bitcoinist03/15 12:01

Ethereum Approaching Major Capitulation Zone — On-Chain Metrics Hint At Impending Shift

bitcoinist03/15 12:01

A Repeat Of February? Watch Out For These Bitcoin Price Levels In March

The Bitcoin price had a disappointing performance in February, struggling to sustain a break above the $70,000 level and facing sharp reversals after briefly reaching $71,000. A market analyst highlights several key price levels to watch in March. The strongest support is the realized price at approximately $54,600, which has historically acted as a critical floor. On the upside, significant resistance levels include the 1-4 Week Realized Price at $71,600, where recent buyers may look to exit at break-even. A decisive break above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP) at $90,800 could signal a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. Further resistance exists at the 365-day Simple Moving Average ($98,900) and the 3-6 Month Realized Price (~$100,800). Bitcoin is currently in a bearish phase and must overcome these resistance levels for a meaningful recovery. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading around $63,696, down over 5% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist02/28 21:01

A Repeat Of February? Watch Out For These Bitcoin Price Levels In March

bitcoinist02/28 21:01

XRP: Mapping the $45mln supply shock and its impact on ETF demand

XRP is currently trading below its Realized Price, indicating that most holders are at a loss, which reflects weak short-term sentiment and widespread caution. Recent data shows a struggle to reclaim this key psychological threshold, keeping the market in a fragile state. Additionally, external demand has provided little support, with XRP Spot ETF flows weakening and net inflows turning negative in late January, followed by only a modest recovery in February. The lack of substantial ETF inflows has failed to counter selling pressure. Further exacerbating the situation, over 31 million XRP (worth around $45 million) was recently moved to Binance, primarily by large holders, signaling potential short-term sell pressure. Concurrently, XRP recorded its largest spike in realized losses since 2022, suggesting capitulation as investors sold at a loss out of fear. Historically, such panic selling phases have occurred near market bottoms, and the last time losses were this severe, XRP experienced a strong rally in the following months. While current conditions are challenging, there is potential for a rebound if the asset can stabilize and regain investor confidence.

ambcrypto02/23 11:02

XRP: Mapping the $45mln supply shock and its impact on ETF demand

ambcrypto02/23 11:02

Bitcoin Stares Down the $55,000 Floor: The Last Bastion Before On-Chain Capitulation

Bitcoin is struggling below the $70,000 mark amid persistent selling pressure and declining sentiment. It has fallen approximately 47% from its October high of around $125,000 to roughly $66,400. Key on-chain support levels—Realized Price and Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost basis—are converging, potentially forming a critical support corridor between $43,000 and $51,000 within a quarter. The Realized Price, currently near $55,000, is the immediate support. If Bitcoin breaks below the $43K–$51K zone, a deeper bear market could follow. The tightening range between these levels indicates compressed structural support, though this is a forward-looking indicator rather than an immediate signal.

bitcoinist02/14 03:05

Bitcoin Stares Down the $55,000 Floor: The Last Bastion Before On-Chain Capitulation

bitcoinist02/14 03:05

Bitcoin Correction Accelerates Toward Historic Capitulation Zone – Details

Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $70,000 amid weakening demand and sustained selling pressure, with the current correction reaching approximately 46% from its October 2025 peak of around $124,450. Analyst Axel Adler notes this decline has entered a deeper bearish phase, approaching the historically significant 1.25× Realized Price Band—a level that often distinguishes standard corrections from capitulation. While the current drawdown is less severe than those in previous cycles (such as -93% in 2011 or -76% in 2021–2022), a break below the -50% threshold could signal further downside toward -60% to -70%. Short-term direction hinges on whether Bitcoin stabilizes or breaks lower, reflecting fragile sentiment and thinning liquidity.

bitcoinist02/10 05:02

Bitcoin Correction Accelerates Toward Historic Capitulation Zone – Details

bitcoinist02/10 05:02

Bitcoin Cycle Far From Over — Here’s What’s Happening

Bitcoin prices are consolidating around $95,000, withstanding the lingering effects of a significant Q4 2025 correction. Despite a 33% pullback from its all-time high of $126,198, the bull cycle is believed to persist. On-chain analysis reveals a redistribution of market risk. Short-term holders (1w-3m) are in profit, experiencing low psychological stress. In contrast, mid to long-term holders (3m-12m) are under pressure as their average acquisition costs ($114,808 and $100,748) are above the current spot price. Their decision to hold, rather than sell, is crucial. For the cycle to continue, a sustained bullish narrative is needed to keep these investors from exiting, allowing prices to rise and ease their losses.

bitcoinist01/18 16:01