CLARITY Act Countdown 25 Days: If It Doesn't Pass Before the August Recess, What Will Happen to the Crypto Market?
The "CLARITY Act," a major U.S. crypto market structure bill, faces a tight 25-day window before the Senate's August 10 recess. Its passage this year is now uncertain, with prediction markets giving only a 40% probability. The bill aims to clarify SEC/CFTC jurisdiction and provide a non-security path for tokens, but is stalled by political and law enforcement negotiations.
If it fails to pass before the recess, the likely market impact is not a crash but a "slow bleed" through premium products like ETFs, as seen in June's record $4.5B net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. XRP, which would gain permanent commodity status from the bill, stands to lose regulatory premium. Bitcoin and Ethereum, already classified as commodities, would be less directly impacted but face prolonged uncertainty for DeFi and institutional investment.
The path forward includes passage before August (a major catalyst), delay to 2027 (prolonging uncertainty), or failure, requiring the bill to restart in the next Congress. Analysts note that even failure wouldn't halt the push for U.S. regulatory clarity, but would extend the timeline for establishing a global standard.
Odaily星球日报07/03 09:09