Gemini Space Station Inc., the parent company of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, is moving toward launching a federally regulated prediction market as it looks to diversify revenue and offset mounting financial challenges.
The firm had filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May seeking approval to operate a new derivatives exchange called “Gemini Titan.”
According to the public filings on the CFTC’s website, Gemini Titan would function as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) offering federally regulated event contracts.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Gemini has been in active discussions to launch products tied to the registration “as soon as possible.” The company reportedly plans to offer services directly, rather than relying on third-party partnerships.
If approved, Gemini Titan would compete directly with Kalshi, the only active CFTC-regulated event market, and Polymarket, which is preparing to reopen to U.S. users.
Prediction markets hit record highs
The filing comes amid booming interest in event-based trading. Prediction markets have seen a resurgence in 2025, with weekly trading volume reaching an all-time high of $2 billion in the final week of October.
Gemini’s move is not entirely new. In August 2024, the company, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, submitted a comment letter to the CFTC regarding its proposed rule on event contracts.
Gemini argued that the rule “exceeded the CFTC’s statutory authority” and warned that its blanket prohibition of “event contracts involving gaming” could “hamper prediction markets.”
Should Gemini proceed, it must operate under the Commodity Exchange Act, which requires a Designated Contract Market to comply with 23 core principles, including rules on market surveillance, financial integrity, governance, and system safeguards to ensure fair and orderly trading.
Facing headwinds after IPO
Gemini’s foray into prediction markets comes as the company battles shrinking revenue, widening losses, and falling retail engagement following its September initial public offering (IPO).
Gemini’s shares have plunged around 49% since listing, closing at $16.29 on Tuesday, per Google Finance data. The stock opened at $32 on its first day of trading after pricing at $28 a share.
The firm reported a $282 million net loss in the first half of 2025, nearly double its $158 million loss for all of 2024. Revenue dropped to $68.6 million in H1 2025 from $74.3 million a year earlier, according to an August U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.
Currently, over 80% of Gemini’s trading volume comes from institutional clients, reducing its exposure to retail users—a market where Coinbase and Robinhood continue to dominate.
Gemini’s strategic push
The proposed derivatives platform represents Gemini’s broader effort to stay competitive in a maturing crypto industry. Gemini has applied for regulatory approval to run its own designated contract market, which would eventually allow it to list prediction-based derivatives contracts.
Getting the green light from the CFTC isn’t a quick process. Approvals like this can take months or even years, and the recent U.S. government shutdown could delay things even more.
While Gemini waits, other financial firms have taken a faster route—teaming up with prediction market platforms that already have the required licenses. For instance, Robinhood provides clients access to event contracts through Kalshi Inc., avoiding the lengthy approval process.
If approved, Gemini’s platform would join a growing field that includes Kalshi, Polymarket, and Trump Media and Technology Group’s “Truth Predict”—a new venture in partnership with Crypto.com. Truth Predict will integrate with Truth Social, Donald Trump’s social media platform, and use Crypto.com Derivatives North America as its CFTC-registered clearinghouse. Initial testing is expected to begin soon.
Competition heats up
Traditional financial giants are also eyeing the fast-growing prediction market sector. CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) have both explored launching similar products.
Gemini’s crypto rival, Coinbase Global Inc., revealed during recent earnings calls that it, too, plans to branch into event contracts as part of its mission to become an “Everything Exchange.”
Before its IPO, Gemini disclosed plans to launch event contracts covering sports, financial, political, and economic forecasts.
A Needham & Co. analyst shared that prediction markets are an “ideal opportunity” for Gemini to expand its range of products and open up new sources of revenue, especially as its main trading business continues to struggle with falling interest from retail investors.
Regulatory hurdles persist
Even with the rising excitement around prediction markets, the industry still faces a lot of regulatory uncertainty in the United States.
The CFTC has allowed Kalshi to launch new event markets, but state gaming regulators—who usually handle sports betting have pushed back in court. The clash between federal and state authorities has created confusion over where prediction markets end and gambling begins.
The road ahead
Gemini’s move into event contracts highlights its effort to regain growth and move beyond its core crypto exchange business. The company raised $425 million in its September IPO—one of the strongest market debuts by a digital asset firm this year, but it now faces pressure to show that prediction markets can become a steady source of profit.
If the CFTC gives its approval, Gemini Titan would mark a big step into a federally regulated space that combines crypto innovation, derivatives trading, and real-world forecasting. Still, the approval process could take time, and competition in this area is heating up. Gemini’s challenge will be to build a lasting position in a fast-changing market that’s already under close regulatory watch.
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