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Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion ahead of its IPO, far below the company's $1.75 trillion target. The research firm's DCF model values the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion and assigns only a $170 billion probability-weighted valuation to the AI segment (including xAI). Analyst Nicolas Owens calls the company "severely overvalued," citing a near-100x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue. Despite the bearish long-term view, Morningstar acknowledges short-term price support from low float and potential rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. The IPO is set for June 12, featuring an unusual tiered lock-up expiration that could create selling pressure over time.

marsbitHace 19 hora(s)

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

marsbitHace 19 hora(s)

Zhou Hang: How Much Is SpaceX Really Worth?

**Zhou Hang: How Much is SpaceX Really Worth?** SpaceX, arguably one of the greatest industrial companies of the past 50 years, is reportedly targeting a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation in its potential IPO. However, the author argues this figure is inflated by approximately $1.25 trillion when assessed through standard financial metrics. The analysis begins by acknowledging SpaceX's undeniable success: drastically reducing launch costs, achieving near-monopoly in commercial launches, and building the strategic Starlink network. Its achievement surpasses even Tesla's, given it disrupted a state-monopolized industry. Despite this greatness, a $1.75 trillion valuation places SpaceX above the combined market cap of Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, and General Dynamics. Projecting optimistic 2030 revenues of $50-80 billion and applying generous tech-sector multiples yields a "reasonable" valuation range of $500 billion to $1.2 trillion. The $1.25 trillion gap is attributed to three non-financial premiums: 1. **Long-term vision premium** for future Starship-enabled markets (e.g., space-based computing). 2. **Sovereign asset/strategic premium**, as SpaceX is deeply integrated into U.S. national security. 3. **Retail narrative/Musk cult premium**, driven by a heroic story and personal following. Post-IPO, three scenarios are outlined: valuation solidifying (25% probability), sideways volatility as narrative outpaces reality (50%), or a re-rating down to $800B-$1.2T if execution falters or Musk-related risks emerge (25%). The probability-weighted expected value is $1.3-1.5 trillion, suggesting negative expected returns for those buying at the IPO price. The conclusion advises investors to separate the company's excellence from its stock price. Buying at the IPO likely prices in excessive optimism. A more prudent strategy would be to wait for key milestones (e.g., Starship V3 stability) or a significant price correction before investing, or to treat an early purchase as a long-term, high-conviction hold with limited position size, not a short-term bet.

链捕手Ayer 02:12

Zhou Hang: How Much Is SpaceX Really Worth?

链捕手Ayer 02:12

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