Key points:
Bitcoin has enjoyed six weeks of its latest “price discovery uptrend” — but a correction is now due.
Analysis shows that in previous halving cycles, BTC price tends to halt its second uptrend after five to seven weeks.
A new dip now would still allow fresh all-time highs in Q4.
Bitcoin may start the last week of its latest “price discovery uptrend” on Monday with the price stuck below $120,000.
New findings released Sunday by popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital show that BTC price is running out of time to make new highs.
Bitcoin hits classic “price discovery correction” zone
Bitcoin risks keeping its recent $124,500 all-time high in place — if it follows historical patterns.
Updating X followers on bull market progress, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is about to start the seventh week of its second “price discovery uptrend” since its 2024 halving.
After each halving event, the subsequent bull market contains a succession of such uptrends, each accompanied by a correction. The timing of each phase throughout Bitcoin’s lifespan has been roughly similar.
“Historically, Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to end between Week 6 & 8 of its uptrend. Whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends to end its uptrend between Week 5 & 7,” Rekt Capital summarized.
“Week 7 of Price Discovery Uptrend 2 begins tomorrow.”
A linked chart from earlier in the year shows a potential upside target for the second uptrend at just below $160,000.
“But if we think critically about previous Price Discovery Corrections across the cycles... Then only one of them started in Week 8 (2017), one of them started in Week 6 (2021) and and two of them started in Week 7 (2013 and 2025),” a newsletter on the topic observed in July.
In 2025, Bitcoin’s first corrective phase took the price from near $110,000 to under $75,000 — a roughly 30% drawdown not uncommon in previous halving cycles.
New BTC price all-time high in Q4?
Continuing, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD has not yet delivered a “green” August and September back-to-back.
However, a dip could form the pretext for a larger cycle top to come toward the end of the year.
“We tend to see a quick flush followed by an explosive Q4 in most of the bull market years,” part of an X post stated Sunday.
“Any larger flushes in the next 1-2 months would be welcomed and could very well be the last larger dip for the Q4 end of the year rally which we see so often. If not, that's fine too but I think it would pull forward a bigger high timeframe top as well.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows BTC/USD up 2.1% in August, already slightly above the 1.8% average. September, by contrast, has on average delivered a 3.8% price drawdown.
