Bitcoin’s latest prediction placed the peak of the next bull run above $160,000.
The S2F timeline for the next rally peak is expected to take place between 2024 and 2025.
Many have tried to accurately predict Bitcoin’s [BTC] cycle peaks and bottoms with little to no accuracy. PlanB’s stock to flow model (S2F) is perhaps one of the classic examples of a highly publicized strategy.
Unfortunately, PlanB’s S2F model failed to accurately predict the market top in 2021. But could there be a more accurate version of the stock to flow model?
Well, CryptoQuant analyst Gigi Sulivan recently conducted an S2F analysis of Bitcoin. It might offer some clarity about what to expect before, during and after the next Bitcoin halving.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to Gigi Sulivan’s analysis, BTC’s S2F chart registers a spike during each halving. A bull run has historically taken place after each halving, leading to a new peak, followed by a bear market.
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in May 2024. A bull run might be on the cards if it maintains characteristics similar to those observed during previous halving events.
Attainable or too ambitious?
Sulivan’s analysis anticipates that Bitcoin will peak between $160,288 and $206,824 during the fourth halving’s bullish cycle. Interestingly, S2F predictions during the previous two halvings were notably lower than the actual peaks.
This means Bitcoin could rally well above $260,000 during the next bullish cycle.
Source: CryptoQuant
But is the predicted price for the next cycle really attainable? Well, some past predictions have much higher expectations regarding Bitcoin’s price in the future.
For example, some believe that Bitcoin might be worth over $1 million in the future. This means the prediction based on this S2F analysis is a bit more attainable, especially in the near term.
Bitcoin will need a lot of liquidity to push into the predicted prices. Fortunately, this prediction aligned with some interesting market observations.
For example, institutional demand for BTC has recovered significantly in the last few months. In addition, multiple Bitcoin ETFs were pending approval at press time. They might supercharge BTC’s ascent in the months leading to the halving next year.
While Bitcoin traders should take note of these predictions, it is also important to note that they are speculative. This means they do not guarantee that prices will soar to those levels.
The market is known to be quite unpredictable and hence there is a significant probability that things might not turn out as expected. On the other hand, a rally past the predicted levels is also possible.
