The Bitcoin and crypto markets have seen a strong weekly close. Bitcoin’s price moved straight up into the current key resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this puts the price once again just below the current key level that separates BTC from $30,000.
A powerful price move will also benefit the broader crypto market as the rotation in altcoins aka altcoin season has still failed to materialize. Bitcoin and crypto investors should therefore keep an eye on key macro data in the week ahead.
Bitcoin And Crypto Face These Key Events
After a quiet start to the week, one of the most important macro metrics for the financial markets is coming up on Wednesday, April 12, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). When the CPI data is released at 8:30 am EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Investors will be evaluating whether the Federal Reserve can push through another rate hike or whether it will hit the pause button in the face of stronger-than-expected falling inflation combined with the latest US labor market data. The previous month’s CPI was 6.0% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis and 0.4% month-over-month (MoM).
In March, the expectations are for CPI YoY at 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). A miss on expectations is likely to push the Bitcoin price lower as markets price in a higher probability of another Fed rate hike in May.
The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or even exceeded, Bitcoin is likely to head north.
target rate probabilities for May 3 | Source: CME FedWatch Tool Later that day, on Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm EST. The meeting minutes will reveal more details on the Fed’s projections and considerations for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.
On Thursday, April 13, both the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 am EST. The PPI MoM is forecasted to come in at 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while the core PPI MoM: is forecast to rise again to 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are forecast at 216,000, and were previously 228,000. Already last week, the US labor market and ISM private sector purchasing managers index figures showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) the US unemployment rate sent a mixed signal and marginally fell (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
On Friday, April 14 at 8:30 am, the US retail sales will be released. March retail sales are expected to fall 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while core retail sales are expected to fall 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data must be seen in the context of slowing economic growth momentum and fears of recession.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close of Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.
