USD.AI (CHIP) Plunge

Chip stock momentum is fading, with funds rotating from previously high-flying semiconductors toward AI hyperscale cloud giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson. He notes this rotation is occurring against a backdrop of overall market weakness, with major indices facing continued pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retreated nearly 14% from its recent peak, raising valuation concerns despite its massive gains since last September. Wilson now favors hyperscalers, seeing them as more attractive within the AI ecosystem due to their strong core businesses providing a solid foundation. This group has significantly underperformed semiconductors, suggesting potential catch-up opportunity. However, he cautions these companies might soon lower capital expenditure forecasts in response to market concerns over excessive AI spending. The strategist also expects the rotation to broaden beyond tech, benefiting sectors like consumer discretionary, transportation, and biotech. This view aligns with JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka, who anticipates market leadership widening in the second half of the year. Wilson maintains a year-end S&P 500 target of 8000, implying roughly 7% upside from current levels, though near-term volatility is expected.

Market strategist Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley notes a shift in investment flows from high-flying semiconductor stocks toward AI hyperscale cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. He observes waning momentum in the chip sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down nearly 14% from its recent peak amid valuation concerns, despite a 123% rally since last September. Wilson argues this rotation is occurring against a backdrop of overall market weakness, keeping pressure on major indices, though he maintains a year-end S&P 500 target of 8000, implying roughly 7% upside. The report highlights AI hyperscalers as relatively undervalued within the AI ecosystem, with a basket of such stocks compiled by UBS having fallen 2% since last September. Wilson believes their strong core businesses provide solid footing, though he cautions they may soon temper capital expenditure forecasts in response to market worries over excessive AI spending. The rotation is also expected to benefit sectors beyond tech, such as consumer discretionary, transportation, and biotech. This view aligns with JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka, who anticipates a broadening of market gains beyond the technology sector in the second half of the year.

DeepSeek, the Chinese AI company known for its algorithmic models, is secretly developing its own AI chip to reduce dependence on Nvidia, according to a Reuters report. The chip is designed specifically for AI inference, not training, and the project began approximately a year ago. Currently in early stages, DeepSeek is reportedly in discussions with chip design firms, foundries, and memory suppliers. The company, historically focused on algorithmic efficiency, has been discreetly hiring chip design engineers without public job postings. This move aligns with a global trend where major AI model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are also pursuing custom chip development. DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng previously highlighted chip shortages as a challenge. While the company initially trained models on Nvidia H800s and later adapted to Huawei's Ascend chips, it now seeks greater control over its hardware foundation. Designing a competitive AI chip is a significant challenge, requiring years and substantial investment with no guarantee of success. However, DeepSeek's efforts are backed by a recent major funding round of approximately 51 billion RMB (about $7.4 billion) raised in June 2026. The funds are designated for expanding data centers based on domestic chips, developing proprietary AI chips, and recruiting top global talent. Infrastructure plans are also advancing, with job postings for data center design engineers, including projects in locations like Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia. The company remains characteristically low-key, with sources speaking anonymously and no official comment from DeepSeek itself. Nevertheless, this initiative marks a strategic expansion from software algorithms into the hardware layer that powers its AI systems.

Amid market jitters, SK Hynix shares plunged 15.4%, their largest-ever daily drop, following a below-expectations earnings forecast and profit-taking after its recent U.S. listing. This led a broad selloff in memory chip stocks, dragging South Korea's KOSPI index down sharply and triggering circuit breakers. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions after U.S. strikes on Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, intensifying inflation and further rate hike fears. This pushed U.S. Treasury yields up and strengthened the dollar, while pressuring gold and other precious metals lower. The market now braces for key U.S. inflation data, the start of earnings season, and central bank signals amidst the volatile backdrop.

On Monday, U.S. stocks rallied with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gains, breaking a recent losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 53,000 mark for the first time. The rebound was fueled by positive news from AI infrastructure leaders: Nvidia confirmed its server roadmap remains unchanged, and Broadcom announced an extended chip partnership with Apple until 2031. However, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson warned that the semiconductor sector's trajectory resembles that of silver before a sharp correction, hinting at potential bubble risks. In commodities, oil prices remained under pressure. WTI crude traded flat around $68-$69, while Brent fell to its lowest since late February at $71.75. This weakness followed Saudi Arabia's significant price cut for August cargoes—its largest in at least 26 years—raising concerns about oversupply as OPEC+ agreed to boost production targets starting in August. Gold edged down 0.4% to $4,162 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and hawkish-leaning signals from Federal Reserve officials. Bitcoin reversed early losses to surge about 1.4% to $63,571 after former President Donald Trump publicly declared himself a "big believer in cryptocurrency." This statement countered selling pressure from a major firm's $216 million Bitcoin divestment. In bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.47%. The dollar index was largely flat, while USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 162.03, nearing a 40-year high and testing Japan's intervention resolve. European equities dipped slightly, with the STOXX 600 closing down 0.35%, retreating from record highs hit after the strong U.S. jobs data.