Pendle (PENDLE) Plunge

Since facing rejection months ago, Pendle has been in a steep downtrend, recently hitting a low of $2.02. At the time of writing, it traded around $2.17, down 4.1% on the day and nearly 18.5% over the month, reflecting persistent bearish pressure. This weakness has led to capitulation among long-term holders, including institutions. Notably, Polychain Capital sold its entire position of 4.114 million PENDLE, acquired at an average of $3.16, at approximately $2.19, realizing a loss of nearly $4 million. On-chain data showed sustained selling pressure, with a negative Buy Sell Delta for nine consecutive days. Technical indicators, including a low RSI and weak momentum, suggest the $2 support is at risk. A break below could push prices toward $1.80, while reclaiming $2.25 is needed for any recovery.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes invested approximately $1.03 million in LDO and $973,000 in PENDLE, signaling potential early positioning ahead of a DeFi rally. Both assets broke out of descending structures—PENDLE above $1.67 and LDO above $0.55—with supportive derivatives activity and measured bullish sentiment. PENDLE's open interest and volume surged, while LDO's long accounts rose without excessive crowding. Holding key levels—$1.95 for PENDLE and $0.67 for LDO—could confirm further upside, suggesting strategic accumulation for a potential DeFi-led market move.

Pendle, the largest crypto yield trading platform, has announced a major upgrade to its native tokenomics with the introduction of sPENDLE. This update aims to unlock deeper liquidity, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen Pendle’s leadership in on-chain yield and interest rate markets. The upgrade follows a record-breaking performance in 2025, with $5.7B average TVL (up 76% YoY), $4.46B in cumulative protocol fees (up 134% YoY), and $54B in monthly nominal trading volume. Key features of the upgrade include protocol revenue being used to buy back and distribute $PENDLE to active sPENDLE holders, a flexible exit mechanism for sPENDLE (14-day no-penalty or 5% fee for instant redemption), and improved voting via an algorithmic emissions model aimed at reducing PENDLE emissions by 20–30%. The vePENDLE lock mechanism will be paused on January 29. The upgrade also supports Boros, Pendle’s innovative platform for tokenizing perpetual funding rates, which has reached $6.9B in notional open interest and $91M in OI within four months of launch. Pendle aims to bridge DeFi with traditional fixed-income markets, offering tools like Principal Tokens (PT), Yield Tokens (YT), and funding rate derivatives to expand access to global yield opportunities.

Pendle, a leading DeFi protocol in the interest rate derivatives sector, has announced a major shift away from its long-standing veTokenomics model, transitioning to a more liquid sPENDLE system. This move sparked debate, with critics like Curve’s Michael Egorov calling it a mistake, while the token price rose 11% following the news. The vePENDLE model, which required long-term locking for governance and rewards, was deemed inefficient—concentrating power and yields among a small group of sophisticated users and creating imbalanced incentives across liquidity pools. Over 60% of pools were unprofitable, relying on a few high-performing ones like Ethena for subsidies. The new sPENDLE model introduces a 14-day unstaking period (with a 5% fee for instant exit), replacing indefinite locks. It also adopts algorithmic reward distribution—cutting emissions by ~30%—and directs 80% of protocol revenue to buy back and distribute PENDLE to stakers. Existing vePENDLE holders will receive up to 4x sPENDLE bonuses based on remaining lock-up time at the snapshot on January 29. This shift reflects a broader DeFi trend away from forced loyalty via locking and toward attracting users through real yields and flexibility, as seen in updates by PancakeSwap, Balancer, and Ethena. The industry is increasingly prioritizing product appeal and capital efficiency over locked value.

Pendle (PENDLE) has declined over 65% since August 2025 but is showing signs of a potential reversal. A whale withdrew 1.5 million PENDLE tokens ($2.82 million) from Binance and time-locked them until 2028, indicating strong long-term conviction. Staking activity has also risen, surpassing 11 million tokens, reducing selling pressure. Currently trading at $1.96, PENDLE is up 4.95% in 24 hours with a 13% increase in volume. Historical patterns suggest a possible 22% rise to $2.38 if it holds above $1.70 support. Traders are leaning bullish with more long positions, though short-term sentiment remains cautious as price trades below the 50-day EMA.