# Macro Risk Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Macro Risk", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Panic Over $1.8 Trillion Deficit Heats Up, Bond Yield Surge Could Trigger 30% Bitcoin Volatility

The article discusses Bitcoin's current stagnation within a narrow trading range despite positive signals like BlackRock's ETF holdings and net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market anxiety is growing due to conflicting macro forces. On one hand, the soaring U.S. budget deficit—projected at $1.8 trillion—fuels expectations of monetary expansion, which long-term proponents believe will benefit assets like Bitcoin. On the other hand, a sharp surge in global bond yields, with U.S. 30-year yields hitting multi-decade highs, poses a significant risk to high-valuation assets by raising real financing costs. Analysts note Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is at historic lows. Historical patterns suggest such periods are typically followed by a median absolute price swing of around 30% within 60 days, though the direction is uncertain. This could push Bitcoin to roughly $83,200 or down to about $44,800 from its current ~$64,000 level. The market's focus has shifted from Fed policy to the trajectory of long-term Treasury yields and geopolitical risks. While the fiscal deficit narrative supports long-term bullishness, the immediate threat of rising yields creates a precarious balance. Traders are warned to prepare for significant volatility and potential deep corrections, with some experts suggesting a washout of leveraged positions may be needed before a sustainable bottom forms.

marsbit08/19 09:21

Panic Over $1.8 Trillion Deficit Heats Up, Bond Yield Surge Could Trigger 30% Bitcoin Volatility

marsbit08/19 09:21

Wintermute Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Surge A Short Squeeze, Not Sustainable Growth

Wintermute warns that Bitcoin's recent surge to $83,000 is primarily a short squeeze rather than sustainable growth, driven by a $10B jump in derivatives open interest and low spot volumes. The market maker cautions that short-covering differs from conviction buying, and a retracement is possible unless genuine spot demand emerges. While noting positive long-term factors like strong ETF inflows and low exchange reserves, the firm highlights near-term risks including overbought RSI levels and dependence on equity market sentiment. Bitcoin's ability to hold $80,000 support through potential macro shocks will be a key test of the rally's durability.

bitcoinist05/13 04:02

Wintermute Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Surge A Short Squeeze, Not Sustainable Growth

bitcoinist05/13 04:02

Bitcoin Capital Rotation Trend Shows Rare Signal For First Time This Bear Market

The Bitcoin price has slowed down after recent gains, slipping below $73,000. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, a rare capital rotation trend is occurring for the first time this bear market. The Capital Rotation Net Position Change metric shows Bitcoin's realized cap hit a low of -$28.7 billion in late February, while stablecoin market cap increased by over $6 billion, indicating a flight to safety. Recently, Bitcoin's realized cap recovered to -$3 billion as stablecoin capitalization declined to -$1 billion, suggesting investors are gradually returning to risk assets like Bitcoin. This shift began during peak uncertainty around the Iran conflict, implying some investors may be using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic risks. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $72,800, up over 8% for the week.

bitcoinist04/12 15:32

Bitcoin Capital Rotation Trend Shows Rare Signal For First Time This Bear Market

bitcoinist04/12 15:32

Ethereum enters FTX-era stress: Is this structural deleveraging?

Ethereum experienced severe market stress reminiscent of the FTX era, driven by geopolitical tensions and forced deleveraging. Funding rates collapsed to extreme negative levels as ETH's price fell sharply toward $2,300, resulting in over $1.1 billion in ETH liquidations. Large holders, such as BitMine, faced near 40% unrealized losses with ETH trading far below its $3,800 acquisition cost. Both ETH and BTC reflected a synchronized market unwind, with price failing to hold above key resistance levels. Momentum indicators turned bearish, with support now tested near $2,400–$2,600. A break below could lead to further declines, while recovery depends on improved macro conditions and renewed institutional inflows.

ambcrypto02/01 23:01

Ethereum enters FTX-era stress: Is this structural deleveraging?