Bitcoin Capital Rotation Trend Shows Rare Signal For First Time This Bear Market

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-04-12Last updated on 2026-04-12

Abstract

The Bitcoin price has slowed down after recent gains, slipping below $73,000. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, a rare capital rotation trend is occurring for the first time this bear market. The Capital Rotation Net Position Change metric shows Bitcoin's realized cap hit a low of -$28.7 billion in late February, while stablecoin market cap increased by over $6 billion, indicating a flight to safety. Recently, Bitcoin's realized cap recovered to -$3 billion as stablecoin capitalization declined to -$1 billion, suggesting investors are gradually returning to risk assets like Bitcoin. This shift began during peak uncertainty around the Iran conflict, implying some investors may be using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic risks. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $72,800, up over 8% for the week.

The Bitcoin price has somewhat slowed down over the weekend after a largely positive past few days, slipping below $73,000 in the early hours of Saturday, April 11th. According to an on-chain analyst, investors are beginning to increase their exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Are Investors Using BTC As A Hedge Against Inflation?

In a recent post on the X platform, pseudonymous market pundit Darkfost shared that a behavioral shift among Bitcoin investors is occurring at the moment. The crypto analyst revealed that this trend can be observed through the rotation of liquidity over the past few weeks.

Highlighting data from Checkonchain, Darkfost based their analysis on the Capital Rotation Net Position Change, which measures the flow of funds between major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, in this case), stablecoins, and fiat currencies. This metric tracks whether investors are moving their capital into riskier assets (risk-on sentiment) or to risk-free assets (flight-to-safety sentiment).

In addition, the Capital Rotation Net Position Change metric calculates the 30-day net change in the digital asset’s realized capitalization. According to Darkfost’s post, Bitcoin’s realized cap fell to an extreme low of -$28.7 billion at the end of February.

Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X

At the same time, while BTC’s realized cap dwindled, the stablecoin market capitalization began to steadily increase, reaching more than $6 billion. This rise in the stablecoin market cap reflects a clear intention from investors to protect their capital, while its coincidence with Bitcoin’s realized cap drop marks the first time for such a rotation since the previous bear market.

According to Darkfost, this behavior seems to be experiencing a gradual shift, with the Bitcoin realized cap recovering to -$3 billion, while stablecoin capitalization declined to -$1 billion. This shift suggests that investors are slowly starting to re-expose themselves to the market, which can be seen in BTC’s recent price action.

Darkfost added:

For now, this remains a modest development, but if this dynamic continues, Bitcoin could potentially extend the ongoing recovery rally. It is all the more interesting to observe that this dynamic began to emerge precisely as uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict were reaching their peak.

The analyst concluded that it appears that some investors are starting to view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflationary and macroeconomic risk, especially in the current global market landscape.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $72,800, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by more than 8% on the weekly timeframe.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

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