Generating Profits for Seven Consecutive Quarters, Emerging Markets Carry Trade Outperforms Everything
For the seventh consecutive quarter, dollar-funded emerging market carry trades have delivered positive returns, marking the longest winning streak since 2008. According to Bloomberg's index, this strategy has gained approximately 22% since late 2024, outperforming U.S. Treasuries, emerging market sovereign, and corporate dollar debt. The core of the trade involves borrowing low-interest currencies like the U.S. dollar, euro, or yen to invest in high-yielding emerging market assets, such as Turkish lira bonds offering over 40% returns.
Returns were amplified by favorable currency moves, with the dollar weakening against most emerging market currencies and other traditional funding currencies. For instance, the trade gained 48% on the Colombian peso in the past year. A key test came in August 2024 with a historic joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention, which caused only a modest 1% dip in the carry trade risk premium as investors shifted funding from the yen to the euro and Swiss franc.
Looking ahead, the primary risk is the timing of Federal Reserve policy changes. While persistent inflation allows the Fed to hold rates, a rapid rise in long-term U.S. yields could threaten the trade. Another concern is crowding, as massive inflows increase vulnerability to a sudden reversal. High interest rates in regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, supported by external factors like Middle East tensions and energy prices, continue to sustain the opportunity. Major investors remain engaged, favoring currencies like the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira.
marsbit08/24 01:35
