In August, Bitcoin may remain under pressure, according to analyst estimates: following the July recovery, the market does not appear ready for sustained growth, and the risk of falling below $60,000 persists.
By the end of July, the main cryptocurrency recouped part of its losses and showed double-digit growth from a multi-year low. However, the experts surveyed are in no hurry to talk about the start of a new bullish phase.
The baseline assessment of the experts is cautious: August is more likely to become a month of testing key levels than a point of confident reversal.
At the end of July, Bitcoin is trading around $63,500. This is roughly 50% below the historical peak of October 2025, when the price reached $126,200 per coin. In early July, the $BTC price dropped to around $58,000—the lowest level since 2024—after which it rose almost without pullbacks over several weeks to $67,000.
As a result, the market is again in the narrow corridor of $60,000–65,000, which has been holding since early June. Earlier, from February to April, the price moved in the range of $65,000–75,000, and in May, it attempted to consolidate closer to $80,000, but the growth did not continue.
Why Bitcoin is Under Pressure from Rates, Inflation, and a Strong Dollar
Several analysts believe that one of the most challenging macroeconomic combinations has formed for Bitcoin at present. Among the main factors exerting pressure, Rufat Abyasov, founder of GBIG HOLDINGS, highlights:
- high credit rates in the USA;
- persistently high inflation;
- expensive oil.
In addition to the macro backdrop, Bitcoin's price can be influenced by regulation, demand from institutional investors, network technological updates, and security news: any strong signal in these directions quickly changes risk appetite.
Lead analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets, Alexander Kraiko, holds a similar position. According to him, for Bitcoin to fully grow, the market needs lower rates and, consequently, a decrease in the yield of government bonds. While the yield of conservative instruments remains attractive, part of the capital flows there, not into cryptocurrencies and other risky assets.
Investor expectations are also influenced by the Federal Reserve: as long as the market does not see conditions for a noticeable easing of monetary policy, demand for speculative assets remains limited. In such an environment, the US dollar and fixed-income instruments continue to compete with the crypto market for capital.
Lead investment analyst at Go Invest, Nikita Bredikhin, adds that some investors are choosing stocks and other assets without guaranteed yield. In his assessment, traders are currently looking more at semiconductor manufacturer stocks and artificial intelligence developer papers than at cryptocurrencies.
This picture is confirmed by the dynamics of Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds. The first half of the year ended with a net outflow of $5.4 billion—the worst result since the launch of such ETFs in January 2024. In June alone, investors withdrew a record $4.5 billion. Rufat Abyasov describes the July inflow as movement around zero: the week ending July 24 brought only $33.8 million.
The launch of cryptocurrency ETFs in the USA in 2024 and the inflow of institutional money were among the drivers of the previous rally. When investors buy ETF shares, issuers purchase the cryptocurrency to back the issued papers, thereby creating additional demand for the underlying asset.
August Historically Remains a Weak Month for the Crypto Market
Crypto expert Viktor Pershikov draws attention to seasonality: August is rarely a strong month for digital assets. Historical statistics confirm this. From 2013 to 2025, the average return in August was 1.12%, but the median was negative at -7.49%. This difference suggests that negative periods occurred more frequently.
An additional factor of uncertainty remains regulation in the USA. Rufat Abyasov separately highlights the CLARITY Act bill, which is important for the crypto industry. Its possible adoption is considered by many market participants as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and the sector as a whole, but the document has not been agreed upon for over a year.
The technical picture is also important for the market. The $BTC / USD pair continues to hold within a sideways range, and buyers have not yet shown sufficient strength for a confident breakout above local resistances. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Blockchain itself remains the asset's underlying infrastructure, but the price is now reacting more to capital flows, rates, and the general investor attitude toward risk.
What Should an Investor Do: Levels, Scenarios, and Risks
Rufat Abyasov believes the market is in the final phase before the start of a new Bitcoin cycle. He reminds that in past periods, the bear market lasted about 400 days. Therefore, the current prices are suitable for gradual accumulation, he says, but warns: short-term decline into the area below $60,000–55,000 is still possible.
In the logic of such cycles, the market usually goes through several phases: accumulation after a strong decline, bull growth, distribution at high levels, and a bear correction. For the price, this is important because in the accumulation phase, demand forms gradually, and a sharp rise often begins only after exiting the sideways range.
Abyasov's forecast for the coming month boils down to three scenarios:
- Base scenario: movement in the $58,000–68,000 corridor; probability — 50%;
- Negative scenario: decline below $58,000 and a drop to $50,000–55,000; probability — 30%;
- Positive scenario: rise above $67,000 with a target of $71,000–75,000; probability — 20%.
The key support zone is around $60,000–61,000. Consolidation above $67,000 could break the downtrend.
Alexander Kraiko also allows for Bitcoin to rise to $70,000, but believes that after that, a new wave of decline is highly likely to begin.
In the horizon of the next two months, the area around $53,000 remains a reference point.
At the same time, Kraiko believes that on a global scale, the market is already at interesting levels for long-term entry.
Nikita Bredikhin also advises building positions in Bitcoin and strong projects but urges caution regarding memecoins and young coins. He does not rule out a retest of $60,000, where the lower boundary of the sideways trend currently lies.
Viktor Pershikov gives one of the most optimistic forecasts for August. He allows for a 7–10% growth in the crypto market capitalization and does not rule out $BTC moving to $70,000. However, in his assessment, the correctional cycle is still far from complete.
More or less serious movements are unlikely before Q4 of this year.
In such a situation, it is important for investors to look not only at the Bitcoin price. The overall backdrop is most strongly influenced by:
- credit rates;
- inflation;
- ETF dynamics;
- interest in risky assets;
- behavior of large market participants.
Even if the cryptocurrency looks cheaper than previous highs, the main digital currency remains volatile, and August may become more of a test of patience than a month of a major breakthrough. Among the reference points, market participants also monitor the industry infrastructure, including large services like Coinbase, as sentiment around such platforms often reflects the overall interest in crypto assets.
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